Large-scale attacks by domestic militant groups unlikely but sectarian violence increases in Tanzania

From: Abdalah Hamis

Key Points

– There are at least six organisations with known or suspected ties to Al-Shabaab, including Ansar Muslim Youth in Tanga and Jumuiya ya Taasisi za Kiislam and the Islamic faith group Uamsho (Awakening) primarily based in Zanzibar.

– Although the risk of domestic insurgency from groups affiliated to Al-Shabaab is increasing from its currently elevated level, primary targets are more likely to be religious gatherings and buildings rather than commercial assets.

– Domestic groups have little capability to stage large-scale attacks on hospitality, retail, or business assets. The highest risk of smaller-scale attacks, using IEDs and small-arms, is likely to be in Dar es Salaam, as well as Zanzibar and Tanga.

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