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BY FR JOACHIM OMOLO OUKO, AJ
NAIROBI-KENYA
WEDNESDAY, MAY 23, 2012

When Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta on Sunday launched The National Alliance (TNA) party which he will use to vie for presidency in the forthcoming general elections, under the slogan ‘I believe’, some ODM supporters ruled it out as a waste of time and resources. Whether they like it or not, Uhuru is someone to watch.

Although Nyatike MP Omondi Anyanga has dismissed a book being authored by former Prime M’s adviser Miguna Miguna is part of the scheme to tarnish the image of the PM ahead of the general election, this book should not be taken for granted.

According to Anyanga, any attempts to tarnish the image of Raila are bound to fail as he will win the next general elections. These were similar words spoken by Raila’s allies in 2007 but never worked on Raila’s favour.

When I spoke in Yala Catholic Church shortly after ODM nomination how Raila was going to be rigged out, Gem MP Jakoyo Midowo who was also present during the Sunday mass presided over by me, he took issues with me, saying there was no way Raila was going to be rigged out. In fact for Jakoyo Raila was already president.

I remember we exchanged bitter words with Jakoyo outside the Church after the mass. I was the ODM Returning Officer for Ugenya Constituency where I was beaten by Steve Mwanga’s supporters when they realized his name was missing on the ballot paper. I had gone to Yala to take refuge.

Anyanga like the rest of Raila’s allies, the rest of presidential candidates are anti-reformers coalescing together to employ dirty tricks as they are sure they will lose in the elections since most of them were just hatching on schemes to block Raila as a presidential candidate.

While this cannot be ruled out that G7, Gema, Kamatusha, Mudavadi could be the projects to ensure that Raila does not get 50plus percent required constitutionally to enable him to qualify for president; Uhuru is looking at re-run between him and Raila.

Believe it or not, the re-run is going to be the toughest campaigns Kenya has never seen since independence. Uhuru camp will make sure, even if to use all the money they have, that Raila does not make it to State House.

In his explosive new memoirs, Peeling Back the Mask, Miguna Miguna exposes Mr Odinga’’s lacklustre leadership – questioning his progressive credentials and claim that he is an agent of change.

The book presents a true insider’s account of the intrigues, discussions and power plays that have occurred in Kenya’s “corridors of power” in recent years. The book depicts a cowardly and dishonest leader undeserving of the praise and attention of recent years.

According to the publisher, the book presents a true insider account of the intrigues, discussions and power plays surrounding the leadership of the PM. The book is to be launched in London, Kenya, Canada, USA and South Africa later in July, according to Miguna.

According to the latest opinion poll from Strategic Research, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, even though he remains the most popular presidential candidate with 32.7 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for him, he is dropping tremendously.

A steady drop from the 36.9 per cent who said they would vote for him in March 2012 and his 40.1 per cent in January 2011 leaves a lot to be desired.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta was the second most popular candidate with 15.2 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for him, even though this was also a sharp drop from the 23.9 per cent support that he received in the last Strategic Research poll in March 2012, although up on his 11.7 per cent in January 2011.

There are several factors why Raila is dropping, the major one being of Deputy Prime Miniater Musalia Mudavadi’s exit from ODM to UDF. Since he ditched ODM he would be backed by 7.1 per cent of respondents, up from 1.8 per cent support in March and 0.8 per cent in January 2011.

Eldoret North MP William Ruto was the third strongest candidate with 7.9 per cent support, even though this was a decline from 10.6 per cent in March and 11.7 per cent in January 2011.

As Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka showed the same slumping popularity at 7.0 per cent, down from 9.7 per cent in March and 12.2 per cent in January 2011, Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua’s support rose to 5.3 per cent from 4.6 per cent in March. She was followed by Peter Kenneth with 2.5 per cent, Raphael Tuju with 1.9 per cent, Eugene Wamalwa with 1.4 per cent, Prof James ole Kiyiapi with 1.1 per cent, and Prof George Saitoti with 0.9 per cent.

Another reason why Raila is dropping is his failure to suspend Prof Anya’ng Nyong’o due to alleged controversial Sh4.3 billion civil servants’ medical National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) scheme allocated to ghost clinics.

The ICC is not an issue here according to Uhuru’s spokesman Mr Munyori Buku because nothing in law stops Uhuru from vying. His strategy of incorporating the youth in TNA leadership is not only a brilliant idea, but also making Onyango Oloo from Nyanza as party general secretary.

Apart from Oloo, Uuru has also made Johnson Sakaja from Western as the party’s chairman, Wambui Gichuru from Central as Treasurer, and Mr. Billiaha from the Coast as Organising Secretary. Moses Kuria, who has resigned as PNU spokesman, is likely to become TNA’s Executive Director.

This was to send signal to Kenyans that given that in Kenya, unfair allocation of national resources through nepotism and corruption has been the major factor that triggers conflict in the nation as some communities feel neglected while their counterparts enjoy enormous share of the national cake, Uhuru’s party was beyond tribal and nepotism.

Uhuru will also have an advantage following Prime Minister’s Raila Odinga’s step brother, Isaac Omondi Odinga’s public announcement that he will ditch ODM for the G7 Alliance.

Speaking at the Bungoma Posta grounds during the G7 prayer rally last month Omondi said no amount of intimidation will stop him working with the G7 politicians. Omondi is currently an ODM councilor for Kisumu’s Milimani ward.

Omondi has accused Raila of dictatorial tendencies, saying that the days for the presumed reformers who are the pillars of dictatorship are gone, and they either change or change will catch up with them.

Joshua Kuttuny, an ardent supporter of William Ruto was quoted as saying, “This is a warning shot to those who thought Nyanza is politically impenetrable. We now have a footing in the region, including within Raila’s own homestead.”

Omondi, who is the councilor of Milimani ward in Kisumu, has declared his intention to challenge his step brother Oburu Odinga in the Bondo parliamentary race. Oburu, who is an assistant Finance minister, has represented Bondo since 1994 when he succeeded his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga who died two years after he was elected Bondo MP.

Omondi is known to be a lone ranger in the Odinga family and pointedly refused to back the election of Kisumu mayor Sam Okello whom Raila endorsed. Omondi instead campaigned for James Oyolo who lost the election.

Omondi is the first born son of Jaramogi’s third wife Susan Agik Odinga who runs a tailoring businesswoman in Kisumu. Jaramogi was polygamous and had four wives— Mary Juma, Gaudencia Adeya, Susan Agik and Betty Adongo. Mary is the mother of Raila and Oburu. She died in 1984.

Uhuru and Ruto have been exchanging bitter words after Raila said the two should be in prison for crimes against humanity charges they are facing at the International Criminal Court instead of crisis crossing the country attending prayer rallies.

During the re-run Uhuru will no doubt get many votes from the youth who make up 60 per cent of the population. He is a member of the social Network facebook under profile name Uhuru Kenyatta from where he discusses important issue with the youth than Raila is doing in his Facebook network.

Some of the issues Uhuru is discussing with the youth include reduction of poverty and create employment opportunities for the youth. To reduce poverty, Uhuru is convinced that the country must adopt pro-poor and pro-growth policies whose success must be measured by how well they translate to poverty eradication. This seems to be comncing to the youth.

Uhuru will also gain from Martha Karua and Peter Keneth voters during re-run. Both Martha Karua and Peter Keneth are kikuyu. This is given the fact that historically in Kenya Kikuyus cannot vote for other tribes other than themselves.

Even though the Kalenjins are unlikely to vote for him because of the 2008 post election violence, Uhuru will use a lot of money to buy voters from other ethnic communities. Remember he is the most riches presidential candidate.

According to Forbes Magazine which recently published a list of Africa’s 40 richest persons, Uhuru Kenyatta ranked 26th and number one richest person in Kenya. His net worth was an estimated $500 million, which translates to almost 50 billion Kenyan Shillings.

This is how Forbes described his wealth: “Kenya’s Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta is the son of Kenya’s first President, Jomo Kenyatta, and heir to some of the largest land holdings in Kenya. He owns at least 500,000 acres of prime land spread across the country.

He will also gain from the Diaspora votes, estimated at 50 per cent with Raila getting 30 per cent only. This is because the rest of Keneth and Karua will go to him. Musalia’s votes will also go for him, given that he has been running on Uhuru’s UDF party.

Uhuru will even gain more if what The Star reported yesterday that he is planning to make Mudavadi his running mate. This will motivate the Luhyia communities, especially the supporters of Eugene Wamalwa.

He will also receive sympathy votes because he and Ruto will use ICC case for re-run campaign. They will convince voters that Raila thought at the time of elections they would have been already at The Hague.

Mind you already Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto are convincing Kenyans that Prime Minister Riala Odinga is the one taking them to face the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the crime of humanity. They are accusing Raila of being used by foreign governments to clear the way for him to ascend to power.

Already MPs allied to Uhuru and Mr Ruto have tabled a document in Parliament sensationally claiming that Britain was pushing to have President Kibaki indicted over the 2007/8 violence and Raila was the one behind all these.

Yatta MP Charles Kilonzo who tabled the document also accused the United Kingdom of propping up Mr Odinga and pushing for the detention of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto. The document has since been dismissed by British High Commission as fake, even though Mr Kilonzo indicated that they had obtained the document from a member of the House of Commons.

The British High Commission has described the allegations as “preposterous,” and part of an unscrupulous agenda. The National Security Intelligence Service has also urged caution in handling the document.

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