From: Ouko joachim omolo
Voices of Justice for Peace
Regional News
BY FR JOACHIM OMOLO OUKO, AJ
NAIROBI-KENYA
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2012
Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta are almost 100 percent sure that their candidates will win by-elections in Ndhiwa and Kangema tomorrow. While Uhuru made passionate appeal to Kangema residents that by electing The National Alliance (TNA) party candidate in Monday’s by-election would herald his march to State House, Raila said he will not vie for presidency when ODM candidate does not win.
Mr Kenyatta asked locals to come out in large numbers and ensure Tirus Ngahu won with majority votes, saying his win would ensure he had the political muscle to enable him propel his presidential ambitions. “I want to appeal to you to vote for TNA on Monday as a win for TNA is a win for me. This win will mark the beginning of my journey to State House and also give me strength to negotiate with other regions,” he said yesterday during his final day for campaign.
For Raila it would be a big embarrassment if the electorate rejected ODM candidate Augustine Neto Oyugi in Monday by-election, noting categorically that the party is confident that Oyugi would beat his rivals for ODM to retain the seat. “Ka ok umiya Neto kaka jaod bura maru to kata an ok abichung e kom maduong’ cha (If you do not give me Neto as your MP, then I will not vie for the top seat),” he said at a rally at Magina Trading Centre on Saturday.
According to Raila a win for the party in Ndhiwa would be a barometer on its performance in the General Election due in March. Raila said his political opponents for the presidency are closely watching ODM’s performance in the Ndhiwa by-election. “It will be a big shame if ODM loses the by-election. I am supposed to be busy campaigning in areas outside my stronghold. I expect you to campaign for me in this region”.
Neto is faced by Tom Alila (Kanu) and Rosemary Rumo (TNA). Raila is already in dilemma as Kenya’s oldest political party, KANU declared support for his presidential bid in the March 2013 general Election if Ndiwa constituents for Tom Alila since KANU will not be fielding a presidential candidate in the coming general election and instead will back the Orange Democratic Movement’s Odinga for the top seat.
The fact that historically Ndhiwa has been a KANU zone, to Raila’s and ODM surprise Tom Alila might emerge the winner. Ndhiwa Constituency which is an electoral constituency in Homa Bay County has been KANU prone zone until recently.
Its first Member of Parliament in KANU ticket in 1966 was Joswa Odero Jowi, Matthew Otieno Ogingo, 1969, Joseph Odero Jowi came again in 1974, Zablon Owigo Olang’, 1979, Ochola Ogaye Mak’Anyengo, 1983-88. In 1990 Matthew Otieno Ogingo recaptured the seat again through by-election.
Although in 1992, Tom Elvis Okello Obondo won on Ford-Kenya ticket, KANU still remained strong in the constituency. Joshua Orwa Ojode won the seat by-election through Ford-Kenya in 1994. Ojode won again in 1997 on a NDP ticket. In 2002 Ojode won on NARC ticket and 2007 until his death in June 2012 on ODM ticket.
The constituency has ten wards, Central Kabuoch as of September 2005 with 5,515 registered voters, Central Kanyamwa, 3,882 voters, East Kwabwai, 4,899 voters, Kanyandoto, 5,037, Kanyamwa Kologi, 7,419, Kanyikela, 2,200 voters, Riana West, 4,899, South Kabuoch, 7,915, West Kanyamwa, 5,073, and West Kwabwai with 4,347 registered voters making a total of 51,186 registered voters in Ndhiwa constituency.
One of the losers in ODM Ndhiwa nominations has already thrown his weight behind Kanu’s candidate in the September 17 by-elections. Washington Kale will head Tom Alila’s campaign team. The losers maintained that ODM imposed their aspirants against the Ndhiwa electorates.
On Uhuru side, opinion polls are to be believed, then his TNA aspirant is to win tomorrow’s by-election. The latest polling from the Strategic Research indicate that Ngahu will emerge the winner-but will this really determine his way to State House?
According to the poll Ngahu will emerge the winner with 4,500 votes, followed by Simon with 3,800, Muturi, 2,900, Kimani, 1,800, Gathogo, 1,420 and Njuguna with 250 votes.
The candidates in Kangema include, Tiras Nyingi Ngahu (TNA), Simon Mwangi (UDF), Muturi Kigano (Saba Saba Asili), Njuguna Mwangi (Mzalendo Saba Saba), John Gathogo (Mkenya Solidarity Movement), and Paul Kimani Mugo (PNU).
Ngahu is a former high school teacher and is in the insurance industry. UDF’s Mwangi holds a degree in commerce and has been a long serving accountant at the Murang’a County Council. Kigano of Saba Saba Asili is a Nairobi-based lawyer who served in the defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya.
ODM leader, Prime Minister Raila Odinga did not fill any candidate but was in Kangema to campaign for the Mkenya Solidarity party candidate John Gathogo. Kangema has 37,000 registered voters, with 44 polling stations, according to records of voters during the 2010 referendum.
In Kajiado North Uhuru Kenyatta is expecting TNA’s Moses ole Sakuda to win. Planning Assistant minister Peter Kenneth is hoping for Peter Munene of the Kenya National Congress, while Raila is counting on Peter Mositet of ODM.
Kajiado North candidates include David Sakuda, TNA Solomon Kinyanjui, Wiper Democratic Party, Salaon Kashorda UDF, Livingstone Sane Agano, Paul Gichinga, KANU and Peter Munene of Kenya National Congress among others. Kajiado North has the highest registered voters’ with118, 854 in 117 polling stations.
Moses ole Sakuda who has since shifted to TNA from ODM is likely to win given that Prof George Saitoti was PNU who, even though he is a Kikuyu appeared to have inspired his constituent voters.
Sakuda who during the last elections file an unsuccessful petition when Saitoti defeated him is closely followed by Mositet, Sakuda and Wiper Democratic Party’s Solomon Kinyanjui who are perceived by some Kajiado North electorates as possible next MP.
They argue that either Mositet or Kinyanjui might win given that Kikuyu votes could be shared among the top three aspirants who in one way or the other are affiliated to the members of the Maasai community.
Fr Joachim Omolo Ouko, AJ
People for Peace in Africa
Tel +254-7350-14559/+254-722-623-578
E-mail omolo.ouko@gmail.com
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