From: Sudan News

Rebel forces loyal to the South Sudanese Former Vice President Dr. Riek Machar have recaptured Malakal in the early hours of Tuesday.

The rebels seized the capital of the oil-rich Upper Nile State early Tuesday after days of fierce fighting.

Rebels’ commander who spoke to the South Sudan News Agency on condition of anonymity said their troops have defeated combined forces of Uganda and South Sudan stationed in Malakal.

“They are running toward Paloch and our forces are pursuing them”, the source said.

From: Sudan Press

Enter but with no guns and uniformed men, Minister Makuei was told. Now, this is being twisted by President Kiir and company!

I always believed that President Kiir is being misled by people around him. ‘He’s a nice uncle surrounded by bad people’ as my brother would philosophically say. However, one has to sit back and think hard. Is President Kiir this clueless as to be completely blind to the realities of what is good and bad?

The government should avoid controversies and focus on helping civilians in Bor, Juba, Malakal, Bentiu and other areas. The senseless massacres and utter destruction we’ve seen in Bor and other areas should be our main concern as national healing will be next to impossible given the massacres, destructions and Minister Makuei’s and president Kiir’s attitudes. Riek failed as a leader and you are now failing civilians through mindless arrogance!

Stop making excuses for your own failures! The current mess was created by lack of conscientious leadership by President Kiir and exacerbated by callous thirst for power by Riek Machar and his forces.

Four UN soldiers were killed by SPLA forces when helicopter was shot down in December of 2012. And two more UN peacekeeping forces were killed by Riek’s Rebels in Akobo in December of 2013 but the UN is still helping our people. Please blame the culprits and stop making excuses!

Riek Machar is a man who’s distinguished himself as power-hungry even before he joined SPLA in the early 80s. The man has a dumbfounding mythic belief that can even have my daughter say: “Hey grandpa…don’t you think that’s a little naïve?”

With no doubt, Riek Machar inhabits his own world and he’s a man who’s predictable. This makes it extremely dangerous for Kiir and his trusted elements to use Riek as a pillar through which Kiir’s goodness meter can be calibrated.

Riek has lost what he has to lose but Kiir is still the president of South Sudan. He has to act like one; not like a rebel on rampage; and certainly not like a child who doesn’t care about the consequences of what he says. How can our president talk like some man on the street? Why would the president talk anyhow? As Jiëëng people from my home area would say, muuk yi yic (have self-control)

While Kiir is a leader of a sovereign nation, he needs to understand that we need allies, formidable allies…and trading partners. China alone wouldn’t do!

“I think the UN want to be the government of the South [Sudan] and they felt short of naming the chief of the UNMISS as the co-president of the Republic of South Sudan.” This is pathetic coming from our president.

President Kiir should be the one who should clearly understand the role of UN in South Sudan. Ministers don’t just enter UN premises just because they are ministers! They have to follow UN protocols just as South Sudanese government has protocols.

Is Kiir being destroyed by his allies or is President Kiir completely a lost man in a role he has no clue how to perform?

Someone needs to rescue president Kiir’s legacy; whatever is left, that is.

Michael Makuei Lueth, the current minister of information, is a man who plays by no rules. With no shame, the man swims majestically in ridiculousness. He says whatever comes to his mind.

I don’t even know why Makuei wasn’t arrested with the 11 political prisoners when he was present in the December 6 press conference. We know that conference is the center of the ‘coup attempt’ claim.

Why doesn’t Makuei, a lawyer by profession, know that entry to the UN premises is governed by rules and regulations that need to be respected? Being a minister doesn’t entitle one to forceful entry to UN premises.

Minister Makuei wasn’t prevented from entering per se as claimed by President Kiir and his officials. The gentleman at the gate told the minister he could enter with no uniformed and armed officers (the video is here as proof). Lueth was allowed entry if with civilian entourage. Assuming that he’s a minister, he wanted to be allowed to do whatever he wanted; that is, enter with SPLA generals.

Sorry, some people play by rules even if we, as South Sudanese, don’t!

President Kiir needs to know who’s destroying or has destroyed his legacy! We are a young nation and we can’t afford isolation.

In all indications, President Kiir and his officials are sticking to the ‘coup attempt’ claim when the whole world hasn’t seen enough evidence to declare it ‘a coup attempt.’ The world isn’t saying there was absolutely no ‘coup attempt.’ What’s being claimed is that there’s no enough evidence to conclude that it was a ‘coup attempt’.

Respect is only in proving what one claims not in just professing that such and such a thing is true.

I need the president to take the following issues very seriously:

– Control the follow of information as ministers contradict themselves and reflect the president in a grim light. Makuei Lueth says one thing and Ateny wekdit says something else.
– Let your officials research and double check facts from different sources before going to the media. The ministers say ridiculous things in the media and our country looks like a nation of idiotic men and women when that’s absolutely wrong.
– Let your officials know that the government is supposed to come up with solutions for the country’s problems instead of whining all the times.
– Remember that respect and integrity rest solely on what can be proved. Professing things emotively because they appeal to the majority without proofs is a folly not worthy of presidency.
– The world has helped us gain our independence; don’t spit on their faces with made-up claims like those of Makuei Lueth.
– Makuei Lueth’s actions at the United Nations’ compound were shameful. Makuei wasn’t refused entry for argument’s sake. He was allowed to enter as long as he entered with unarmed people not in uniform. People like Makuei Lueth will bury you, Mr. President.

Mr. President, double-check everything you are told because your officials tell you things they don’t research. You might be a president of a sovereign nation; however, sovereignty comes with responsibility and mutual respect.

Your legacy will be written tomorrow. Don’t let it be spoiled by people you trust.

Kuir ë Garang is an author of seven books including “South Sudan Ideologically” and “Is ‘Black’ Really Beautiful?” For contacts see Twitter: @kuirthiy or his blog, www.kuirthiy.info.

From: Abdalah Hamis

By Jean C.B. [name withheld for security reasons]

(a) SPLM & DEMOCRACY:

December 30, 2013 (SSNA) — The fate of this young nation is in the hands of two men whose rivalry and distrust goes back to the beginning of SPLM/SPLA. What started out as a political problem is now threatening to take this young nation to the brink of a civil war. Dr. Machar having lost his vice presidential seat realized that his only mean of ascending to power is through the democratization of SPLM. Pres. Kiir, on the other hand, understood that democratization of the party is a threat to his regime. The demands put forward by Dr. Machar and Pagan Amum at the most recent party meeting were aimed at weakening the powers of the presidency. The long term goal was multi-partism and democracy in South Sudan. But Machar, Pagan and their other ten colleagues understood that; forming their own party would be deemed as betrayal by South Sudanese. And they are reluctant to leave a party which they have been participants in building and nurturing. Pres. Kiir demands the same level of reverence and respect that was accorded to the late Dr. John Garang. However, Kiir unlike Garang is not a consensus builder. He tends to be very frustrated by political process while Dr. Garang did not personalized politics, Kiir keeps political grudges and demand complete loyalty. His failure to enforce the appointment of Telar Riing as justice minister made him very skeptical of a democratic SPLM. Afterall, Kiir is a military General who abides by the Military code of conduct.

In short, out of fear of democratic process and Dr. Machar’s presidential ambitions, Pres. Kiir has resorted to his last option: amilitary rule. This was why the presidential Guards – a majority of whom are from Kiir’s very own subclan-was formed in the first place. The Guards main job was complete loyalty to Pres. Kiir, not to the South Sudan’s president or to the Rep. of South Sudan but to Kiir himself. The only reason there were some Nuers and a small numbers from other tribes within the group was due to fear of disintegration within the SPLA. In order to nationalize the army, it was necessary to integrate the military. This was supposed to weaken likely potential rebels. In particular, the late Gen. Matip Nhial, Gen.George Athor, Gatdet Yaak and Tanginye. And also to entice YauYau, who is still rebelling against South Sudan. The overall objective in forming the presidential Guards, was to ensure Pres. Kiir remains in power by any means necessary. The aim was to ruthlessly silent the democratic voices within the party led by Dr. Machar. It must be noted that Machar was only a de facto leader of the group due to his seniority within the party.

(b) The Plan: a fabricated Military Coup And why a Coup?

A fabricated coup was the only mean of ensuring Pres. Kiir remains in power as a “failed coup” in african context is almost always justified with an establishment of a brutal military regime. The plan was to either arrest/prosecute or assassinate some the 12 politicians. An emphasis of “dead or alive” was placed in Dr. Machar’s case. During this upheaval a strict curfew was to be established in juba, malakal and Bor. An immediate order was to be given to govt. Montytuil and govt. Kun pouch in unity and Upper Nile to protect the oil fields while re-inforcement arrived.

So what went wrong? For once the dreaded presidential guards being mostly young recruits and given their limited military experience in SPLA were extremely indiscipline in their execution of the presidential orders. A number of them having long held personal grievances against Machar and the Nuers in general for the Bor massacre of 1991, decided to carry out revenge attacks on the Nuer civilians in juba. This gave Machar time to escape. The guards also completely destroyed Dr. Machar’s home in juba and there was a speculation in the presidential circles that he might have been killed in the rubbles. This meant a couple of hours were wasted trying to find out machar’s whereabouts. And before long Gen. Gatdet in Bor had received intelligence about the massacre of Nuers in juba. Gatdet is well known for being a nationalist but a pro-nuer at heart. His objective was always to fight for Nuer first. His support for Machar is a consequence of his loyalty to Nuer and not on shared principles. As a result, Pres. Kiir and his confidants hope that Gatdet- given his new found faith in South Sudan Unity and his elevated status within the party- would take a couple of days before he get a wind of what was actually going on in Juba and make a decision to defect. During this time he would either have been persuaded to stay within the rank and let the judicial process take place or implicated in the “Coup”. Perhaps, Gatdet’s military experience and distrust of Koul Manyang and Kiir told him otherwise. Another major blow was the defection of Gen. Koang in Unity State- This was never anticipated by the high command. Kiir’s inner circle were generally inept in their execution of this plan. The major mistake was the luck of understanding of Nuer’s sentiments in the SPLA and in the populace. And the desire to deny the Nuers any elevated status within the movement by some of the staunch supporters of Pres. Kiir. There was a fear that the Nuer would coalesce around Machar upon his arrest but that ultimately Gen. Hoth Mai might be in a position to re-establish order if needed.

(c) IGAD/Geopolitics: Kenyatta & Museveni

Once, the high command received the information that Machar had escaped and that Gatdet had defected. Two objectives were put in place:

1. To immediately put down any potential mutiny within Juba. This means the execution and imprisonment of some of the senior members of SPLA who were deemed loyal to Dr. Machar. Particularly, those from Lou Nuer and Bentiu.

2. A call was made to Pres. Museveni and to Pres. Kenyatta for support. Museveni and Machar have a long history of distrust given that Museveni believed Machar “financed” the LRA. A rebel group that created havoc in northern Uganda. And Machar is not very fond of Museveni’s dictatorial tendencies and interference in South Sudan’s politics.

Mr. Kenyatta , on the other hand, wants Pipeline through Kenya and Pres. Kiir promised to deliver. Major investment plans have already been put in place to this effect. Kenya would immensey benefit from the pipeline. Machar was reluctant about the cost of building such a pipeline and believed that Kenya will hold South Sudan hostage once the pipeline has been built. Kiir would rather see a pipeline through Kenya as he didn’t trust Bashir regime. Ethiopia was not cantacted until guarantees had been made by Mr. Kenyatta and Mr. Museveni. Once support was established Mr. Kenyatta was used to woe Ethiopia’s prime minister. Note that Ethiopia is generally seen as sympathetic to Machar as there is a large population of Nuers in Ethiopia. In fact, a whole sub-clan of Nuer (Gaajak) live in Ethiopia. Furthermore, Kenyatta having been a beneficiary of tribal politics and a victim of Mr. Odinga’s political maneuvers, understood Pres. Kiir’s sentiments on Dr. Machar’s presidential ambitions. Note that Kenyatta was very supportive of Moi’s anti-multipartism in the early 1990s. He was a product of KANU- a party very much like South Sudan’s SPLM- and a beneficiary of one party rule and tribal politics. The results of the two recent elections in Kenya provide a strong evidence of tribal politics and Uhuru’s desire to transcend such politics. A goal he ultimately failed. He has been accused of instigating tribal violence that killed upto 1500 people and displaced more than 25,000 civilians. Kenyatta’s case was recently dropped due to “insufficient” evidence. However, Kenyatta’s reputation is still tarnished and the West does not trust him. Any positive efforts in helping solve South Sudan’s crisis would be welcomed by the West. There is also Chinese economic interest in East Africa and there is fear that Kenyatta’s effort might not be genuine. He is likely to be on the side of the Chinese/Khartoum.

Once this two objectives had been achieved. The next goal was to convince the international community and in particular the US government that indeed Dr. Machar carried out a coup. The problem however, was persuading Susan Rice and John Kerry to this fact. Dr. Rice having interacted with both Pres. Kiir and Dr. Machar was very skeptical. She does not believe it was in the best interest of Machar to carry out a coup. How was he going to do so without an army at his disposal? Why would he carry out a coup given that he was winning the political battle within the party? And why would Machar wants to use his tribe to face the army of South Sudan given the painful memories of 1991 and his current support from some Dinka leaders? And who would finance him given China and Sudan had made a deal with GOSS? There were too many unanswered questions. The US government did not buy into the coup allegations. The explanation given by Dr. Adwok, that there was aninfighting in the presidential Guards, was deemed more plausible.

(d) MILITARY INTERVENTION IN BOR:

The next step was to re-take Bor from Gen. Gatdet. Pres. Kiir then gave UPDF- Uganda’s military- the permission to bomb Gatdet’s strategic position in Bor. Machar did not want a repeat of 1991 and asked Gatdet to pull out. The truth is there was no “re-take of Bor” by the GOSS troops. Gatdet had already pulled out some hours before the government troops arrived in Bor. The skirmishes in Bor were from a small group left behind by Gatdet as a decoy. This allowed him to escape. But not before he made a major mistake in mistaking US aircraft for UPDF Planes. This was both unfortunate and very costly to Machar’s effort in persuading the US of his non-participant in the alleged coup.

(e) The Strategic Stalement: is Machar Cornered?

Right now, the objective is to re-take the oilfields and to counter any move Machar is likely to make. Pres. Kiir has succeeded so far in winning IGAD to his side. Machar is left with Khartoum and some oil fields. Machar’s demands on the surface seem basic and reasonable but in the bigger scheme of politics; they constitute a great threat to Kiir’s objective of a military rule. Machar wants the detainees to be released. He wants Pagan Amum – a nationalist and a shrewd negotiator- on his side. Pres. Kiir would be foolish in releasing Mr. Amum. And he has used Pagan’s past alleged corruption charges to keep him under arrest. Machar also wants a “credible ceasefire” to be negotiated. This would give him enough time to re-established his contacts and re-group with his detained colleagues giving them an equal status on the negotiating table and taking Kiir’s a long step-on.

Any form of power sharing would mean Machar would achieve his objective of democratizing the SPLM. In short, Machar- being the strategist -is thinking three steps ahead. But for Machar’s plan to work, he needs some leverage. Currently he has three options: The oilfields in Unity/UpperNile, The White army and Bashir/Chinese. Given Machar’s overall goal – complete independence of South Sudan from the North- the third option would be his desperate and last move. The use of White army would lead to unnecessary bloodshed in Bor and Akobo. There are some Lou Nuer in Akobo segments who are skeptical of Machar but given John Luk Jok- Akobo’s son- is in detention, Machar can persuade the Lou Nuer. And Machar needs both the Bor/twic and Lou Nuer on his side. Creating a war between the two sub-clans would leads to a result very similar to 1991. This would ultimately undermine Dr. Machar’s presidential ambition and little support from the international community. Most of his colleagues in detention are mostly Dinkas. He needs to convince the world and the Dinka community that he is not weighing a tribal warfare. While he might not be entirely convincing, he would create some doubts within the Dinka community. He needs to be seen as a non-tribalist.

The best option and the most credible move Machar is likely to make is holding Pres. Kiir’s government hostage. Machar will in effect attempt to control the oilfields in Upper Nile and Unity. But for him to get financing he needs to be able to re-direct the oil revenues to a bank account he can control. This would mean he must either make a deal with Bashir/Chinese or simply use both the oilfields and a negotiated ceasefire as a “credible threat”.

In order for Machar to retain his current control of Unity oil fields; he must control Mayom county and make a direct threat to overtaking Warrap state. He must tempt Pres. Kiir to direct all effort to Warrap state and maintain a hold of Kuajok. This would leave Jonglei vulnerable as the SPLA with its limited resources will be overstretched. Machar will then solidify his control of Akobo and use Bor as a ploy to keep hold of Mayom while being in a good position to negotiate. It should be noted that Machar is a product of the civil war and can be very resourceful. It would be a mistake for Kiir to undermine any proposals he make. Even if these demands seem rather odd. Machar is a shrewd strategist. He will not admit to defeat. The tribal politics of south sudan dictates that both the Dinka and the Nuer be participants, if there is to be any national building. Otherwise, civil war is likely to occur.

(f) What is the best outcome for South Sudan?

The best outcome for the country is for Pres. Kiir to negotiate right away with Dr. machar. Eventually, the SPLA will democratize and Pres. Kiir can still win election under a democratic South Sudan. He is likely to garner atleast the majority (51%) in any given election. Perhaps, he won’t negotiate due to influence from his close confidants (Telar Aring, Hoth Mai, Mr. Makeui Lueth, Mr. Juuk) who have more to lose in a democratic SPLM.

An immediate release of all political detainees (particularly, Mr. Amum and Mr. Alor) is a very unlikely outcome in the short run. The truth is the stalemate is likely to continue until Dr. Machar is in a strong negotiation position. A scenario I don’t foresee anytime soon. In so far, as Machar is not in a position to procure external financing, he is unlikely to achieve his short term objectives: a negotiated ceasefire settlement and the release of ALL detainees. If indeed Dr. Machar manages to somehow negotiate for himself a favorable result, it will only speak volume of his strategic capabilities and the loyalty he commands from the Nuer people. As the situation stands, Pres. Kiir is in a winnable position, but a position that could ultimately lead to the very dreaded civil war if he overplay his hand and tempt fate. Makuei and Kol Manyang are currently persuading him in that direction. This would be an ill-advised move, as it would simply prolong the stalemate and led to civil war.

After many decades of warfare, 2014 should be a year of re-unification for South Sudanese. It’s upon the two leaders to put aside their differences for the sake of national interest. Politics must stop at the water’s edge.

from: Yona Maro

December 25, 2013 (SSNA) — We, the undersigned, representatives of civil society organisations from Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan wish to express our deep concern about the military confrontations that erupted in the Republic of South Sudan on 15 and 16 December 2013. We are utterly disturbed that the violence, which started in Juba, the capital of South Sudan, has now spread to other parts of the country. This unexpected development threatens the foundation of the nascent nation and puts to jeopardy the safety and well-being of its citizens.

We wish to stress our conviction that violence and the destruction of lives and livelihoods serve no purpose and deepen the humanitarian and human rights challenges faced by the government and people of South Sudan. It is also our belief that open and free dialogue that yield a mutually accepted agreement reached through the informed opinion of all the concerned parties, constitute the only way to resolve the current political differences in South Sudan.

We appeal to the political leadership of the Republic of South Sudan to put the interest and aspirations of the populace for peaceful coexistence, progress, development and happiness as their prime objective and mission. This requires greater political sacrifices from all the conflicting parties in South Sudan and we are confident that all those concerned in that part of our country are bestowed with the necessary courage and wisdom to pursue such objectives.

We appeal to the President of the Republic of South Sudan to release, with immediate effect, all persons held for expressing political views critical of the government performance and to start, without conditions, a process of national reconciliation and political dialogue with such persons and with those who are currently under arms against the government.

We appeal to the Heads of State and Government members of the African Union, particularly members of the IGAD countries, to continue to place the situation in South Sudan as a top priority on their agendas and to consider rendering their good offices and personal intervention with the parties to the conflict in view of reaching a negotiated peaceful settlement of the on-going conflict.

We appeal to all States neighbour of the Republic of South Sudan to refrain from interfering in its internal affairs or to extend military or similar support to any party to the conflict or to take advantage of the situation for ulterior motives, but to play instead a role of promoting dialogue and reconciliation between the parties for a peaceful South Sudan.

We appeal to the humanitarian community to redouble their efforts in providing the necessary humanitarian assistance and make available basic materials needed by a growing number of civilians in different parts of the country.

We pay due tribute to all the victims of the on-going conflict, including UN staff and peacekeepers, who lost their lives on the line of duty.

Signed:

1. Abdelbagi Jibril: Darfur Relief and Documentation Centre
2. Dr. Abdelgabar Adam: Darfur Human Rights Organization of the USA
3. Abdelmageed Haroun: HAND
4. Biel Botrous Biel: South Sudan Human Rights Society for Advocacy
5. Bushra Gamar Hussein Rahma: South Kordofan Human Rights and Development Organisation
6. Faisal El-Bagir: Journalists for Human Rights (JHR-Sudan)
7. Dr. Farouk Mohamed Ibrahim: Sudanese Organisation for the Defence of Rights and Freedoms
8. Hafiz Mohamed Ismael: Justice Africa Sudan
9. Hala Alkarib: Regional Director, SIHA Network
10. Dr. Hamid El-Tigani Ali: Associate Professor, American University in Cairo
11. Jimmy Mulla: Voices for Sudan
12. Dr. Luka Biong Deng: Kush Inc.
13. Mahjoub Mohammed Salih: Editor-in-Chief, Al-Ayam Newspaper
14. Mohamed Abdalla El-Doma: Darfur Bar Association
15. Dr. M. Jalal Hashim: Sudanese Association for the Defence of Freedom of
Opinion and Conscience (SADFOC)
16. Nabil Adib Abdalla: Sudan Human Rights Monitor
17. Dr. Nada Mustafa Ali: Visiting Professor, Women and Gender Studies, Clark University
18. Nasredeen Abdulbari: Columbia University
19. Niemat Ahmadai: Darfur Women Action Group
20. Osman Hummaida: African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies
21. Rashid Saeed Yagoub: Journalist , France
22. Shamsaddin Dawalbait: Project on Democratic Thought and Islamic Reform
23. Professor Sidiga Washi: Babiker Badri Scientific Association for Women Studies
24. Sabri Elshareef: Center for Democracy and Peace, New Jersey
25. Dr. Suliman Baldo: Sudan Democracy First Group
26. Suliman Hamid: Blue Nile Center For Justice and Human Rights
For media contacts:

1. Geneva: Abdelbagi Jibril: +41 79 737 97 49 and +41 76 360 95 26
2. Kampala: Biel Botrous Biel: +256 778 89 67 45
3. New York: Suliman Baldo: +1 646 467-3724

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