In Africa, it  is believed that, “when hyenas stop chewing on a stricken elephants, the beast  rarely gets up again”

It seems the  current political stalemate in Kenya is the shadow of the ‘unmovable beast that  is eating away its nation.’

What if the  Kofi  Annan-led mediation process  fails?

Would the UN  Security Council ask NATO to give temporary assistance to the AU, pending a  full-blown UN Mission’s arrival, including military? Why this questions and  many more?

Remember what  happened in Rwanda! There was a sudden withdrawal of foreign troops and resultant  chaos. Where was the UN, then, to save Rwanda?

Is China  failing Kenya by ‘passively’ helping end the political stalemate? History  reminds the world that China opposed the intervention of the UN in Sudan for  fear of annoying the ‘murderous government,’ from which it bought vast dollops  of oil. Isn’t China guilty for acting a passive perpetrator of genocide in  Sudan?

In ‘severe’  situations, UN distinguishes between two sorts of Security Council resolutions.  “Those passed  under Chapter 6 (six), deal with the peaceful resolution of disputes and  entitle the council, to make non-binding recommendations.  Those under  Chapter 7 (seven), give the council broad powers to take action including  warlike action, to deal with “threats to the peace, breaches of peace or acts  of aggression.”
          

And as it is  commonly asserted that Kibaki’s occupation of State House as president is still  ‘illegal’ and questionable and as the hardline stance by government is sustained, Kenya runs a risk of being ruled by warlords.

This means  that even if the second attempt, after a failed one by Ghana’s president Kufuor, to restore political electoral and historical order and currently  backed by the International Community, former UN Chief Koffi Annan and his team  of Eminent Persons, should not at all fail or else Kenya shall reach a  punctured crunch point in time to come.

Kofi Annan’s  team ought to facilitate Kenya to have a transitional ‘government of national  unity’ which could, in a year or two, hold elections. The International  Community should come in to give logistical and financial support directly or  NGOs affiliated to the mediation process to help save Kenya.
On tougher  grounds, Kenya would need closer foreign military protection and back-up for  the sake of internal and cross-order security.

Why?  Intelligence  forces predict a risk of a politico-economic proxy conflict breaking out  between Kenya and Uganda (and probably Somalia and Ethiopia) due to the  ‘adapted opposition strategies’ employed in Kenya by ODM against government’s  PNU. President Museveni would face the same challenge president Kibaki is  currently facing.

Does East  Africa need UN’s blue helmet forces to secure peace in the region?

To revisit  history, the International Crisis Group (ICG), a think-tank, had warned that the arrival foreign (Africa) troops as peace keepers, especially Ethiopia, may  rekindle Somalia’s civil war. The current militancy is Somalia seems the aftermath  of the pre-meditated warning.

Across the  border, and years back, the last Rwandan military aircraft had chugged  away, the Mai-Mai, a tribal militia came out of the bush. Two hours later,  bullets were flying and the townfolk were fleeing, as Mai-Mai warriors fought members of another rebel group and many were left dead.

Worse still,  the Lendu tribe of Congo had its own  death trap. With painted faces and leaf circles in their hair, they broke into a  hospital near Bunia where many of the medical staff and patients were from the rival Hemas, a tribe allied to  western Uganda.  The Lendu warriors went from bed to bed,  cutting up the occupants. By the time they had dragged out the children hiding  in the roof and torched a nearby village, they had killed 1,000 people.
In Kenya,  after elections were announced several self-made tribal militia clubbed together to try and force out a ‘rigged-in’ leader, Mwai Kibaki, and later on  turned on one another displacing themselves and leaving behind crude weapons of  national destruction and displacement.

On a lighter  note, I refuse to accept that ‘machetes and pangas’ should be classified as ‘small arms’. Should we blame knives, pangas, slashers, sickles, and razor  blades for being weapons that could kill? Or should we change the attitude of  men to de-classify such as ‘small arms.’ This is an issue of attitude and intention and not a matter of transforming an object to be an arm of the mind.

Certainly,  Kenyans have been caught between flexible timetables that the Koffi Annan led team and the International Community have demanded and the depressingly  inflexible record of African politicians, including Kenyan tribal militia  groups, warlords and faction leaders whose sparring has cost perhaps 1,000  lives and displaced 300,000 persons from their homes.
          

The International Community ought to end the intermittent and periodic pillage and  death that is ethnically based.

Reassembling Kenya back to where it was is a daunting task, but it is a task that has to start from somewhere– with the internationally sponsored Kofi Annan-led mediation process and the group of Eminent Persons, including like minded protagonists and political and ordinary Kenyans.
Let us all  avoid overturning the progress made so far and avoid political miscalculations  that endanger national security and stability. We all need to choose to  separate our home-grown centrism or hardline stances from national affairs and sectarian  political party radicalism for the sake of Kenya.      

Regards and Happy Val’s,

Mundia Mundia Jnr.