Ababu Namwamba is one of the MPs on record challenging the validity of the presidency of Kibaki and openly attempting to pledge an allegiance to Raila Odinga during the heat of the discredited election results. I was watching it live as Ababu displayed a rare act of courage accompanied by an excellent eloquence. There was no doubt in my mind that a leader was born or should I say appeared. Now Ababu publicly supports the grand opposition, Raila opposes it while Kibaki is quiete. For me I thought the chronology should be the opposite. Kibaki should oppose it while Raila should be quiete about it. Why is Kibaki absolutely quiete about this? Does he have something to gain from this? and if so what is it? Is this a usual mechanism of finding a thorny issue that will drive a wedge within ODM? Yes Kibaki is quiete because he knows a level of descent will always emerge when members of one family fight. That descent is to his advantage.

As soon as the coalition was formed, there seemed to have been a few problems. One of such is an illusion that there is fifty fifty power sharing in the government. At the beginning of the agitation for an opposition, I still thought that this was a mechanism by which ODM was attempting to agitate for equal sharing of power from top to bottom and expected that Kibaki and Kibakilets would be the first to shout. It has turned out that ODM is much more afraid of this opposition that PNU or is that so?. The question is why? Why should ODM not want a partyless opposition? Are they afraid that this opposition would support PNU bills or defeat ODM bills?

I still doubt that opposition is really more of an ODM problem. I think ODM is making it its problem by engaging into a battle that belongs to some one else. One has to first know that ODM’s stake in this coalition government is not 50%. I would estimate it as 20%. Indeed in this coalition government the vice president and the secretary to the cabinet have become more powerful than the prime minister and are the right handmen of the president. There is a general delink between the president men and prime ministers men as evident in their recent public statemnets. Infact ODM is a thorn in the flesh of this government and should be a pseudo or mild opposition. In that respect, the opposition formed by Ababu Namwamba who is an ODM MP should be an arm of ODM. I believe ODM should start talking this opposition in this direction rather than telling them to quit. For god’s shake the driver of this vehicle is an ODM diehard.

While Raila’s and ODM’s statements have been very reconciliatory on issues such as resettlement and arrested youths, those of Martha Karua, Uhuru and the rest have been very forceful, adamant and arrogant. Of course president Kibaki has been silent but on the side pushing Odinga to do his job only when it benefits him. He pushed the PM to push hard on the resettlement in the Rift Valley because he knew Raila was the only one who could do this while he ignored all contentious issues presented by ODM. I think the president has formed this attitude of always asking Raila to go and deal with his “boys” whenever there are problems. But, how has this benefitted Raila and at what cost Raila has been doing this? The results are very clear. The MPs from Rift Valley have become vey very mad with Raila, and ODM is at the brink of collapse. ODM cannot afford this.

Well it is time that the PM should be aware that the boys are not blind and may be this time he should tread carefully and reformulate his approach to this opposition thing. First, Raila must recognize the fact that a real coalition is not in existence as we speak. ODM has no hold of anything in the defense, internal security and constitution and will not do anything that is outside the interest of PNU while PNU can always do something outside the interest of ODM as they have always done with the current appointments. For many who fought tooth and nail in defence of ODM, lack of real power sharing is a betrayal especially if the captain of the team seems not to believe otherwise. May be this is what Ababu has observed. May be Ababu has noticed that this ride is not going to yield much. May be Ababu has presented this to ODM and nobody listened. It is time ODM paid attention to this wave. They cannot tame it by diverting it.

Ababu is not alone in this. As things stand, the MPS from Rift Valley may be thinking of the same and it becomes a thorny issue for Raila to have come up and said that the MPs disagreeing should go a head and seek a new mandate. Well based on the proporsal of the cabinet, some of the Rift Valley MPs may do just that if the issue of arrested youths is not properly addressed by the PM. This issue of opposition is bigger than Raila or Kibaki thinks. New leadership and powerbases have emerged since the last election and most of them hate Kibaki. A close association of Raila with Kibaki to an extent that Raila tells his base to go and seek a new mandate is a crack that might divide his ODM Gondwanaland. Raila must go back to his power base and understand what they are thinking. He must not help Kibaki out at the expence of his party. He must let Kibaki fight his wars publicly. Raila’s best bet is to keep Ababu and his associates in the fold. This is the coalition that should matter to him and the public. The one between him and Kibaki is very very slippery. Furthermore, Ababu has supported Raila for presidency and will support him again. I do not see Kibaki, Karua, Uhuru and co supporting Raila for anything. Kibaki must be forced to come out and talk against the opposition himself. Raila should not do this on his behalf again. He has done enough for free.

Raila must not scatter his base, he needs to consolidate it. He needs to solve this thing within the party and should not go public against this opposition. Raila can afford to loose Kibaki but not Ababu and the Rift Valley MPs. Indeed Raila should let Kibaki speak on this.

Dr. Barack Abonyo

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Date: Tue, 27 May 2008 17:59:16 +0000
From: barack abonyo
Subject: WHY IS KIBAKI SILENT ABOUT THE GRAND OPPOSITION