Category Archives: BLOGGERS

Social Impact Bonds – Useful to Achieve Social Change?

From: Yona Maro

A social impact bond is a new financial tool that uses capital from private investors to scale successful non-profits and save governments money. Although a relatively new structure, social impact bonds have already been applied to prison recidivism, health interventions and educational programs with encouraging preliminary results.

To read more about the future of social impact bonds and how they work, see the Social Enterprise Associates blog.

Link:http://www.socialenterprise.net/blog/SIB.html

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A Reexamination of Who Gains and Who Loses from Credit Card Payments

From: Yona Maro

This report provides an in-depth analysis and reexamination of the theory explored by authors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in 2010 that credit cards and credit card rewards programs lead to a regressive transfer of merchant costs at the point of sale. It examines how sensitive the Boston Fed staff report findings are to variations in the underlying assumptions and modifications to the accounting framework used.

Link:
http://www.perc.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/A-Reexamination-of-Who-Gains-and-Who-Loses-from-Credit-Card-Payments.pdf

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Doctor Know: A knowledge commons in health

From: Yona Maro

The way we create, access and share information is changing rapidly. Every time we look something up on Wikipedia, rate an experience on Tripadvisor or enter search terms in Google, we are taking advantage of the increasingly sophisticated way in which technology and digital tools are allowing us to capture, refine, synthesise and structure our collective intelligence.

With the ongoing advances of the semantic web, new sources of and different applications for data and cultural shifts towards greater openness and transparency, our capacity for creating and navigating complex knowledge grows.

These trends in the creation and application of knowledge have huge implications for how we access, create and apply information in health, a field where knowledge held by patients, doctors, medical researchers, nurses, carers, community providers, families and others is all critical in improving our individual health and well-being. Where information is vast and complex – and the need for accuracy and reliability can be a matter of life and death – our ability to orchestrate knowledge in a useful way is a central concern for any health system.

Link:http://www.nesta.org.uk/library/documents/Doctor_Know_report.pdf

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Kenya: The Role of Technology in the Aftermath of Westgate

From: Yona Maro

“Are all our questions actually going to be answered?” That is the question of questions regarding the Westgate Mall attack, one of many that Kenyan citizens have posed to their government. Many have voiced their frustration and concern on Twitter. Altogether, they have at least 85 pressing questions which have been aggregated in a crowdsourced Google doc. Meanwhile, Kenyans are also turning to crowdfunding to collect donations, using the mobile money platform m-Pesa. It has collected more than US$625,000 in donations for the victims of Westgate.

Link:
http://techpresident.com/news/wegov/24370/role-technology-aftermath-westgate

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School food, politics, and child health

From: Yona Maro

This paper reflects on how understanding of school feeding has changed since the 2009 analysis conducted by the UN World Food Programme, The Partnership for Child Development and the World Bank, which was published as Rethinking School Feeding. Data on school feeding programme outcomes were collected through a literature review. Regression models were used to analyse relationships between school feeding costs (from data that were collected), the per capita costs of primary education and Gross Domestic Product per capita. Data on the transition to national ownership, supply chains and country examples were collected through country case studies.

The authors found that school feeding programmes increase school attendance, cognition and educational achievement, as well as provide a transfer of resources to households with possible benefits to local agricultural production and local market development. Low-income countries exhibit large variations in school feeding costs, with concomitant opportunities for cost containment. Countries are increasingly looking to transition from externally supported projects to national programmes. With a global turnover in excess of $US 100 billion, the authors sustain that school feeding should remain a focus of study with a view to helping countries ensure that their programmes are as cost-effective as possible.

Link:
http://www.schoolsandhealth.org/Documents/School%20food,%20politics,%20and%20child%20health.pdf

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Who’s not online and why

From: Yona Maro

As of May 2013, 15% of American adults ages 18 and older do not use the internet or email.

Asked why they do not use the internet:

• 34% of non-internet users think the internet is just not relevant to them, saying they are not interested, do not want to use it, or have no need for it.

• 32% of non-internet users cite reasons tied to their sense that the internet is not very easy to use. These non-users say it is difficult or frustrating to go online, they are physically unable, or they are worried about other issues such as spam, spyware, and hackers. This figure is considerably higher than in earlier surveys.

• 19% of non-internet users cite the expense of owning a computer or paying for an internet connection.

• 7% of non-users cited a physical lack of availability or access to the internet.

Even among the 85% of adults who do go online, experiences connecting to the internet may vary widely. For instance, even though 76% of adults use the internet at home, 9% of adults use the internet but lack home access. These internet users cite many reasons for not having internet connections at home, most often relating to issues of affordability—some 44% mention financial issues such as not having a computer, or having a cheaper option outside the home.

Link:
http://pewinternet.org/~/media//Files/Reports/2013/PIP_Offline%20adults_092513.pdf

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Should we target our development policies towards subsistence or transformational entrepreneurs?

From: Yona Maro

The importance of dividing entrepreneurs into two distinct categories: transformational and subsistence was the topic of an inspiring talk of MIT Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance, Antoinette Schoar at the World Bank. In crude terms, subsistence entrepreneurs are solely concerned about their survival, and are tiny businesses and unlikely to grow or create new jobs. However, it needs to be said that they remain an important economic pillar, especially for developing countries. Contrarily, transformational entrepreneurs, the considerably smaller group of the two, strive for growth, are generally larger business owners, and provide relatively secure employment opportunities for others. They are the catalysts of innovation, job creation, productivity, and competitiveness. This leads to a crucial question for development – should we target our policies towards entrepreneurs with transformational qualities even though they may not be the poorest of the poor since these are the ones that create more, sustainable and (often) productive employment?

Link:
https://blogs.worldbank.org/psd/placing-your-bets-subsistence-or-transformational-entrepreneurship

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Resilience in action: lessons from public-private collaborations around the world

From: Yona Maro

This study distills lessons learned from 100 initiatives where public- and private-sector organizations have joined forces to strengthen resilience against climate disasters, and presents exemplary case studies to show how others can follow suit.

Full details of the findings and recommendations can be accessed in the full Resilience in Action report, or in the Summary for Policymakers. A set of nine, two-page case studies are included as an annex in both, and are also available as a standalone document.

The study was led by Meister Consultants Group and funded by CDKN. It supports the work of the UNISDR’s 2013 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), published in May, which set out the business case for DRR.

Link:
http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/MCG_ResilienceinActionReportweb.pdf

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Aid for Trade at a Glance 2013

From: Yona Maro

There is a general consensus in the economic literature that strong links exist between trade, economic growth and poverty reduction. Countries that have embraced an outward-oriented development strategy, with trade liberalisation at its heart, have not only outperformed inward-looking economies in terms of long-term aggregate growth rates, but have also succeeded in lowering poverty rates and registering improvements in other social indicators.

There are many channels through which trade-induced growth leads to poverty reduction. Indeed, exports act as the conduit through which countries exploit their comparative advantage, improve their overall efficiency and productivity, and enable industries to employ their resources more efficiently and profitably. These factors expand demand, spur consumption, and reduce risks associated with reliance on the domestic market. They also increase employment in labour-intensive sectors and raise wages and standards of living. Imports permit countries to gain access to a wider range of goods and services and allow local firms to benefit from more, cheaper and newer technologies that increase productivity and competitiveness.

The 2013 report Aid for Trade at a Glance: Connecting to Value Chains analyses the strategies, priorities, and programmes from the public and private sectors in developing and developed countries to connect developing country suppliers to value chains. The report suggests that the increasing fragmentation of production processes offers developing countries new trading opportunities, but also present risks. Value chains reinforce the rationale for keeping markets open and highlight the costs of burdensome procedures that create “thick borders”.

Link:
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/aid-for-trade-at-a-glance_22234411;jsessionid=1ny1471rdw0xh.x-oecd-live-01

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World’s Largest Gathering of Malaria Experts to Convene in Durban, South Africa

From: Dickens Wasonga
Date: Wed, Sep 18, 2013 at 2:37 AM
To: jaluo karjaluo jaluo@jaluo.com

By Dickens Wasonga.

Leading research scientists all over the World are set to present the latest groundbreaking research on preventing, controlling and eliminating malaria , a killer disease and how they have been working to combat the emerging resistance to drugs, insecticides, among others.

This even as the malaria community celebrates 10 years of progress in driving down the unacceptable number of what happened 50 years ago when donor fatigue and a lack of new tools resulted in a resurgence of malaria incidences that took roughly a million lives a year in 2000.

The malaria community is responding by racing to hold on to the gains of the last ten years, while at the same time continuing to develop the tools that could help to eliminate and eventually eradicate malaria.

The Sixth Multilateral Initiative on Malaria (MIM) Pan-African Conference, the world’s largest gathering of malaria expert,will be held in Durban, South Africa, from 6-11 October 2013.

Leading scientists from across Africa and around the world who are pushing this groundbreaking research forward, will gather to present their latest findings in the areas of malaria diagnostics, control (including insecticides and mosquito behavior), treatment (drugs),and prevention (including long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying and vaccines).

At the conference, subtitled “Moving Towards Malaria Elimination: Investing in Research and Control,” they will be joined by thousands of other experts, national malaria control programme managers, policymakers, health care workers and community members who will highlight new developments and remaining challenges in the fight to defeat malaria once and for all.

Despite unprecedented advances, malaria continues to infect approximately 219 million people around the world each year.

In 2010, it took the lives of an estimated 660,000 people, the vast majority young children in Africa.

History has shown that decrease in support for fighting malaria in areas where significant progress has been made lead to a resurgence of the disease, potentially undoing years of effort and investment and putting millions of lives at risk.

End.

Tanzania’s Islamist Militants: A Domestic Threat from a Domestic Context

From: Yona Maro

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BY HANNO BRANKAMP

On 5 May, 3 people were killed and 67 injured in a grenade attack on St Joseph’s Roman Catholic Church in the Olasiti suburb of Arusha, Tanzania. The assault was blamed on Islamist militants and has raised concerns about Muslim-Christian relations in parts of the country.

In recent months, tensions between elements of Tanzania’s Christian community – who make up an estimated 60% of the population – and some of the country’s Muslim community – who make up around 35% – have escalated, with a handful of outbreaks of communal violence.

The Arusha bombing perhaps signals one of the most serious threats yet, given the scale and type of violence, but policymakers ought to be careful not to elide Tanzania’s domestic militants with their more potent regional counterparts. Tanzania’s Islamist fighters have emerged out of locally-specific contexts and histories, and the government ought to ease tensions through reconciliation and by addressing underlying grievances.

The rise of militant Islamism

In 1992, when multiparty politics were introduced in Tanzania, militant Islamism was on the rise in the wider region, especially in the then stateless Somalia and on the Swahili coast of Kenya. In Tanzania, the one-party system of the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party had left the urban Muslim youth in a state of economic frustration and political paralysis. The emergence of the Islamic organisation Baraza la Uendelezaji wa Koran Tanzania (BALUKTA) – Swahili for ‘Council for the Promotion of the Koran in Tanzania’ – in the late 1980s gave a new voice to those seemingly disenfranchised Muslims, primarily in Tanzania’s economic hub of Dar es Salaam.

BALUKTA staged major protests in opposition to the government’s plan to incorporate church institutions into national healthcare and education programmes. The protest movement culminated in the occupation of the headquarters of Baraza kuu la Waislamu Tanzania (BAKWATA) – Swahili for the ‘Supreme Council of Muslims in Tanzania’– a less radical and government-sponsored Islamic organisation, which had alienated many Muslims due to its staunch support of CCM’s liberalisation policies.

Around this time, street battles sometimes erupted between Christian youth and their Muslim counterparts over inflammatory sermons held in mosques in Dar es Salaam. These inter-religious clashes were further sparked by agitation from BALUKTA leader Sheikh Yahya Hussein, whose followers were involved in the destruction of pork butcheries and raids on shops selling alcohol in Dar es Salaam. In April 1993, BALUKTA was officially banned on the grounds of allegedly plotting the overthrow of the government.

Attacks and the economy

In a new upsurge of Islamist activity in February 1998, the militant group Simba wa Mungu (‘God’s Lion’) – apparently linked to the ‘radical’ cleric Sheikh Ponda Issa Ponda – stormed the Mwembechai mosque in central Dar es Salaam. The forcible re-capture of the premises by police led to the death of at least three people. In 2002, violence erupted again when Islamic activists gathered to commemorate the Mwembechai shootings of 1998. Two more people were killed.

Sheikh Ponda, allegedly an initiator of the gathering, was subsequently portrayed as the face of Islamic radicalism in Zanzibar and the coastal mainland. In recent years, Ponda has assumed leadership of the Jumuiya na Taasisi za Kiislamu (‘Association of Islamic Organisations’), making provocative public appearances and holding lectures about the necessity of a ‘Muslim liberation’.

Currently, the marginalisation of Tanzania’s Muslims is most clear in Zanzibar, which has a Muslim-majority population. Zanzibar has witnessed the rise of the Uamsho (‘Awakening’) movementdemanding the island’s secession from the Tanzanian mainland. In April 2012, government forces violently cracked down on the Uamsho protesters that had rallied in spite of a public ban on demonstrations.

The rift between Muslims and Christians has also widened in the recent past. In mid-February this year, Catholic Priest Evarist Mushi was shot dead in Zanzibar’s touristic capital Stone Town. It was the second attack of its kind, following the shooting of another priest on Christmas Day. Last year, the reported desecration of a Koran also provoked the vandalising of numerous churches in Dar es Salaam. And now, the Arusha bombing further stirred the hornets’ nest.

These incidents arouse serious concerns about Muslim-Christian relations in both the archipelago and the mainland. However, cross-cutting fault-lines within Tanzanian society mean broader mobilisation of Muslims against Christians is highly unlikely. Unemployment and political frustration underlie civil unrest more so than sectarian animosity. Indeed, it is from this popular discontent and feelings of abandonment by the ruling elite that the likes of Uamsho and Sheikh Ponda have drawn support. By trying to criminalise those voices, the CCM government has failed to acknowledge their legitimate political demands for economic opportunities, jobs and recognition as Muslim Tanzanians.

It is crucial to distinguish between Islamic activists voicing legitimate concerns and demands – as provocative as those might sometimes be – and militants that promote the indiscriminate use of violence such as the Arusha bombing.

The need for reconciliation

Tanzania’s domestic militant Islamist movements are currently far more modest in capacity and scope than their regional counterparts such as al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda in East Africa (AQEA). These transnational movements may increasingly influence and manipulate Tanzania’s indigenous militants – and the 1998 bombings in Dar es Salaam and Nairobi show how easily regional Islamism can turn against a country – but the danger of this seems limited at least for the moment.

To avoid this, it is crucial to recognise the unique domestic grounds out of which Tanzania’s militants have emerged and to tailor an agenda accordingly. President Jakaya Kikwete’s vow to beef up security measures at religious places of worship is a sign of pragmatism in the face of an immediate physical threat. But whilst acts of violence must be tackled decisively and without delay, the same must be done for underlying grievances.

First of all, Tanzania’s Islamist movements must be seen as what they are: a home-grown domestic threat. An attempt to put Islamic activists – militant or not – under general suspicion by portraying them as the potential fifth column of al-Qaeda is likely to backfire. Instead, it is now more important than ever for the government to reassure the Muslim public that their demands are being taken seriously.

The administration’s investment in long-term measures – i.e. the empowerment of civil society and the creation of public spaces for all religious communities – will be decisive for the prevention of both enduring sectarian violence and militant domestic Islamism. Despite a healthy anxiety for the security of Tanzanians, concern should not be translated into fear and paralyse societal dialogue.

Africa’s Next Oil Insurgency: The Precarious Case of Kenya’s Turkana County

From: Yona Maro

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Political scientists remain divided on the link between natural resources and armed conflict in Africa. One school of thought suggests that competition over the control of resources is itself a motivation for the development of armed insurgencies. Others – opponents of this greed-based theory – suggest that control over resources serves as a mechanism to correct economic and political inequalities. But all agree on one thing: there is a positive relationship between the availability of lootable resources and armed insurrection, and this is particularly the case where populations have been marginalised.

Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta follows this pattern – the Delta experienced a protracted insurgencyagainst the region’s hydrocarbon industry due to the negative impacts of oil exploration and the question of profit distribution. The conflict occurred in a context of ethnically-motivated violence and a burgeoning small arms trade, leading to the rapid militarisation of the region.

A 2009 amnesty agreement formally brought an end to the Niger Delta conflict and, although the peace remains tenuous, the frequency of violence, kidnappings and terrorism has decreased. As a consequence, the world’s attention has shifted towards the impending East African oil boom. Most vested stakeholders have focused on the potential geopolitical benefits of the boom, but fail to address the potential impact these resource discoveries could bring to areas already experiencing acute socio-political and economic marginalisation.

A case in point is Kenya’s Turkana County. Located at the meeting of Kenya’s blurred borders with Ethiopia, Uganda and South Sudan, Turkana County is an arid region, long neglected by successive Kenyan administrations. However, in recent months, Turkana County has become a key area of interest for the Kenyan government and investors alike following reports that British-owned oil exploration company, Tullow Oil PLC, discovered an estimated 250 million barrels of crude oil there.

While resource extraction is not expected to begin for several years, the Turkana oil finds have been celebrated. Oil revenue is seen as a solution to poverty in the region, where nine out of tenpeople live below the breadline. But behind the optimistic rhetoric, the prevailing political and security environment in Turkana County is looking conspicuously similar to that which sparked insurgency in the Niger Delta. If left unaddressed, we could potentially see the region become a theatre for oil conflict.

Corruption and exclusion
If history in the Niger Delta is anything to go by, it is far from guaranteed that the population of Turkana County will benefit from the potential oil revenue. The existence of corruption has already been raised. During a two-day consultative meeting held in the regional capital, Lodwar, in June 2012, community leaders accused local officials of illegally acquiring title deeds, misappropriating community-owned land and using intimidation and violence to displace communities within the region’s oil-rich Ngamia 1 and Twiga South-1 localities.

Equally scathing accusations against Tullow Oil were made. The company was accused of failing to publicise Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) reports, paying insufficient compensation to communities and bribing local councillors and leaders as a means of securing control of resource-rich land. The meeting also identified economic exclusion, accusing Tullow of outsourcing basic services and expertise, denying jobs to local people.

Both the Kenyan government and Tullow Oil have rejected these allegations and committed to greater transparency to ensure local populations can see concrete benefits. However, until commitments have been realised, mistrust and scepticism will remain.

Environmental impact
The potential for further environmental degradation in already fragile ecological conditions is a key concern for those living in the oil zone. An estimated 60% of the region’s inhabitants are pastoralists who have long struggled with seasonal droughts, which led to the deaths of thousands of livestock.

The situation has deteriorated significantly over the last decade and it is estimated that 75% of the population is reliant on food aid. Projects are ongoing in the region to promote the diversification of economic activities, thus limiting dependency on the livestock trade; however, lack of infrastructural development continues to serve as a significant impediment to such initiatives.

While the hydrocarbon industry will undoubtedly produce marked improvements in infrastructure, this is likely to be counterbalanced by the unavoidable ecological impact of oil exploration. Dwindling reserves of fertile land will be appropriated for mining activities, and risks of air, soil and water pollution are significant.

While the government is quick to assure that mechanisms will be in place to offset any adverse ecological effects, environmental degradation is likely to lead to communal antagonism toward the region’s oil industry and, as witnessed in the Niger Delta, could contribute to armed civil insurrection within Turkana County.

Small arms proliferation
Although based in deep-rooted grievances, the role small arms proliferation plays in fuelling internal armed insurrection cannot be overstated. Again, the Niger Delta serves as a timely reminder. In the early-2000s, a thriving small arms trade developed as light weaponry flowed readily over the porous borders of Cameroon, Gabon and Guinea-Bissau. The subsequent militarisation of ethnic groups within the Niger Delta would later serve as important vehicles of the violence directed against the region’s oil industry.

In Turkana County, the availability of light weaponry has been identified as playing a critical role in sustaining communal conflict. An estimated 50,000 small arms are already in circulation, created in part by neighbouring conflicts in South Sudan and Uganda’s Karamoja sub-region. Growing land and resource scarcity has significantly increased tensions, leading to frequent and protracted outbreaks of violence.

Organised crime
For some in Turkana County, access to weaponry has become the only means of socio-economic survival. Organised and well-armed gangs regularly engage in acts of criminality, usually in the form of cattle rustling and highway banditry. If left unchecked, such entities may pose a significant security threat to the region’s future hydrocarbon industry.

As was witnessed in the Niger Delta, oil production has the propensity to support a thriving criminal enterprise. Oil bunkering, the process where oil is siphoned illegally from pipelines, remains rife within the Niger Delta and it is believed that as much as 7% (an estimated 150,000 barrels) of Nigeria’s crude oil is stolen daily. Revenue from oil bunkering is often pumped back into armed groups.

As these groups expand, incidents of oil bunkering become more than an auxiliary threat to the oil sector. Rather, actions escalate into more direct threats, including terrorism, sabotage and kidnapping for the purposes of ransom and extortion.

Oil and water
It is not just oil that lies beneath Turkana County. Recently, massive water reserves have beendiscovered in the region. Many believe this water wealth could provide the solution to water insecurity not just in the drought-blighted regions in the north, but for the entire country.

With both water and oil drawing all eyes to Turkana County, government and commercial stakeholders must act now to ensure the recent discoveries are to the benefit of local populations and to prevent the region becoming a focal point for a resource-driven conflict.

Socio-economic development must come first. Forthcoming oil sector legislation needs to promote development and put the needs of the local population – and particularly the new hopes for the elimination of drought – above those of the oil industry. In addition, stronger policing and judicial structures within Turkana County will mitigate the need for community self-protection and should be focused on small arm control. For the economic stakeholders, there is a responsibility to ensure that the exploration and exploitation of all of the region’s resources is an inclusive process which is subject to stringent controls.

First and foremost, these players will need to manage local expectations by educating affected communities that any potential economic benefits derived from the oil and water discoveries are unlikely to occur overnight. Ultimately, any future industry within Turkana County has to be beneficial to the overall well-being of the region’s inhabitants. If not, communities may very well resort to violence.

By Ryan Cummings, Chief Analyst for Africa for red24.

Is online transparency just a feel-good sham?

From: Yona Maro

Years after politicians and government officials began using Internet surveys and online outreach as tools to engage people, the results overall have been questionable.

While there is no doubt that online advocacy works in campaigns, critics say that many of these government programs are geared simply to perpetuate the feel-good notion that Americans can participate more directly, with few tangible results to argue that they work. Programs that are rigged to provide partisan responses, or to gather donor information, have raised more questions still.

Some programs do draw large numbers of participants—and all the problems that come with it. When it began, the White House’s We the People site required 25,000 signatures within 30 days to get a response from the administration. That threshold was increased to 100,000, on the heels of a bombardment of petitions, including ones for the Death Star effort.

Topics of petitions have run from the serious to the ridiculous. For example, earlier this month the White House rejected a petition idea that called for establishing a “Gun Free Zone” around the president, vice president, and their families, which would mean no armed security. The petition was seen as the product of an organized effort by gun-rights advocates, angered by the president’s gun-control efforts following the Newtown, Conn., shootings.

Link:
Http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/is-online-transparency-just-a-feel-good-sham-20130820

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World Bank – Civil Society Engagement Review of Fiscal Years 2010 – 12

From: Yona Maro

The world witnessed a new level of civil society activism over the past few years. From the Arab Spring in the Middle East to the anticorruption movements in India and the “occupy” movement in some Western countries, citizens and civil society organizations (CSOs) went to the streets to demand greater political participation and economic opportunities.

CSOs also increased their engagement with the World Bank Group, stepping up efforts to influence policies and seeking greater operational collaboration at the country level. From the growing numbers of civil society representatives attending the Annual and Spring Meetings, to the establishment of a new fund to support social accountability efforts, relations between CSOs and the World Bank continued to expand and deepen during the past three years.

It is against this backdrop that we are pleased to present the World Bank – Civil Society Engagement Review of Fiscal Years 2010 – 12, the most comprehensive of the Civil Society Review series since its first edition in 2002. It illustrates how these relations have evolved in many areas ranging from information disclosure and policy dialogue, to operational collaboration.

The Review also highlights important examples of operational collaboration in the areas of health, education, disaster recovery, and environmental protection. At the country level, innovative joint initiatives were undertaken – such as establishing a regional network on social accountability in Jordan, monitoring World Bank projects in Nigeria, and earthquake recovery efforts in Haiti. As the chart below indicates, there was civil society involvement in 82 percent of all 1,018 new projects funded over the three-year period.

Link:
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/CSO/Resources/228716-1369241545034/CSReviewFY10-12FINAL.pdf

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African Development Statistics Are Misleading

From: Yona Maro

A revamped data agenda is needed to deliver robust GDP statistics for Sub-Saharan Africa, says Morten Jerven.

The development indicator with the greatest influence on policy and public debates is GDP (gross domestic product). It is used to rank countries’ progress and wealth – but its interpretation and measurement are tricky.

For Africa, in particular, countries’ economic development statistics are misleading as a result.

The difficulties in accurately measuring GDP are not restricted to the developing world, but, all other things being equal, poorer economies are likely to have lower-quality statistics.

Lack of data

A poorer economy will have relatively fewer available resources to fund an official statistics office.

The quality and availability of data, and therefore the cost of collecting robust statistics, depend on individuals and companies keeping formal records of economic activity or filing taxes – which are less likely in poorer countries. This information is only occasionally collected in surveys.

While defining what constitutes economic activity is a massive problem for measuring GDP in the developing world, it is dwarfed by the difficulty of actually recording economic transactions.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, this basic problem is aggravated by some historical factors. For example, most countries on the continent have not been collecting taxes on property and incomes, but on goods crossing borders – therefore states have had weak incentives to monitor production and domestic economic transactions.

And although African states’ statistical capacity was greatly expanded in the late colonial and early postcolonial period, it suffered greatly during the 1970s economic crisis.

Statistical offices were neglected in the decades of liberal policy reform that followed. This period of ‘structural adjustment’ in the 1980s and 1990s meant governments had to account for more with less: informal and unrecorded markets in food and services grew, while public spending was curtailed.

Out-of-date benchmarks

As a result, our knowledge about growth in African economies is limited.

Anyone can download GDP data for 2012 from the World Bank covering 47 Sub-Saharan African countries and then rank and compare them. But due to the uneven application of methods and poor availability of data, any comparisons will be highly misleading.

This was made clear in 2010 when Ghana updated data and methods that had been unchanged since 1993 to publish a new estimate: switching to using 2006 rather than 1993 as the benchmark year for calculating growth almost doubled its GDP.

As for any index, when the base year is out of date, GDP estimates become unreliable as they may no longer reflect a sizeable part of the economy.

It is widely expected that when Nigeria revises its GDP data, probably next year, it may surpass South Africa as Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy. The problem is that not all countries in the region use a recent base year.

The International Monetary Fund recommends updating it every five years, but countries struggle to do so. Indeed, by that rule, Ghana’s GDP estimate is already out of date.

Expanding country-level expertise

What to do about unreliable GDP estimates?

The message for data users is to question your evidence. And data disseminators, such as the World Bank with its World Development Indicators, need to label their data correctly and clearly acknowledge knowledge gaps. A great deal of information sold as data is only weak guesses and projections.

But the biggest challenge is to invest in countries’ capacity to produce better data.

In the macro analysis of growth and poverty, the distance between the analyst and the economy being studied has increased since the 1990s, when downloadable data sets became popular. To some extent, this practice has replaced country experts, who tended to be better informed about gaps in country-level statistics.

Improving this state of affairs will require a change in scholarly methods, expanding country-level expertise – such as strengthening domestic universities and think-tanks – as well as training journalists to report on economic development.

While funds have been available for statistical offices, partly due to the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) agenda, they have tended to divert resources from economic statistics towards social statistics more relevant to MDG monitoring.

Moreover, these are generally ad-hoc funds that support data collection for a donor-funded project. In practice, many statistical offices operate as a data-collection agency for hire, not an office that provides objective information needed for day-to-day politics or policy planning.

This system means that donors distort data production rather than expand statistical capacity. And it stretches resources for manpower and infrastructure.

The problem here is lack of coordination: many countries have national strategies for statistical development, but, more often than not, donors break with these plans’ priorities and demand the data they need, thus adding to the fragility of statistical offices under increasing pressure.

Put monitoring first

Policy debates can drive capacity building too.

On a global level, perhaps the most visible commitment to results-based and evidence-driven policy was the adoption of the MDGs. But progress in achieving them has been difficult to measure.

In retrospect, it was naïve to require this extent of measurability without a systematic understanding of how data can and should be generated by weak statistical systems.

There is a lesson here: statistical capacity must become central to discussions about post-2015 development targets.

In the MDG discussions, for example, targets were identified first, but less thought was given to where the data needed to monitor them should come from.

With future goals, it may be useful to turn the initial question around: rather than asking what kind of development we should target, the question should be what kind of development can we monitor?

A new agenda for development data in Sub-Saharan Africa is required – one that puts local demand, incentives and applicability at the centre.

Morten Jerven is associate professor at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada. He has published widely on African economic development including a recent book, Poor Numbers. His research is published on mortenjerven.com.

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KENYA: HOMA BAY SEWERAGE AND TREATMENT PLANT TO BE REHABILITATED BY LVEMP

From: Dickens Wasonga
Date: Mon, Sep 9, 2013 at 2:58 PM
Subject: HOMA BAY SEWERAGE AND TREATMENT PLANT TO BE REHABILITATED BY LVEMP
To: jaluo karjaluo jaluo@jaluo.com

By Dickens Wasonga.

There is good news for the residents of Homa Bay town. Plans are at advanced stage to rehabilitate and expand the sewerage and treatment plant built in 1979 and whose operations stalled due to frequent mechanical break downs.

According to Dr. John Okungu a water specialist with Lake Victoria Environment Management program, already a detailed design has been done and Ksh 100 million set aside to do the rehabilitation and expansion works.

This will come as a relief not only to the residents of Homa Bay but also to all who depends on lake Victoria given concerns were being raised amongst various stakeholder s that raw waste could be getting its way into the lake due to malfunction of the plant.

Speaking to the press after a tour of the facility last week, Dr Okungu revealed that although the plant was meant to treat a capacity of 250,000 cubic meters of waste, it was doing only 150,000 cubic meters.

This is despite the fact that the population of the town has tremendously continued to grow over the years.

‘’ Just a half of the waste discharged from the town is treated. This is 60 percent of what was envisaged by the designers that time. Most of the sewer lines are low and soil gets into them and thus leaving many of the lines blocked’’ he noted.

To improve the coverage, the water specialist said they will work on the lines that bring waste into the plant.

He said most parts of the plant depended heavily on electricity to function and were very expensive to repair or replace. Vandalism was also rampant at the plant.

‘’most of these machines are costly to buy and maintain. The municipal council that was in charge of the facility was unable to meet the cost. Most often, electricity bills were huge and the supplier had to cut off electricity supply. This is what we have to guard against in future and it explains why we want to introduce natural ponds’’ said Dr. Okungu.

The specialist said through financial support from LVEMP 2, a consultant was hired to do a detailed design and the draft is ready. It will be for 25 years taking into consideration, the expected population growth.

He said the new design has reduced reliance on mechanized parts and allowed use of natural ponds.

A contractor will soon be engaged to do civil works. Okungu noted that in the past, focus has been in treating and reducing organic loads but omitting to take care of the nutrients discharged.

‘’ To reverse this trend we will now create artificial wetlands to take care of the nutrients and reduce the growth of weeds like hyacinth in the lake.’’ He added.

Plans are also underway to procure aquatic weed harvester to help in removal of the dreaded water hyacinth weed.

Currently scientists estimate that over 100,000 hectors of the Kenyan side of the lake is covered by the water hyacinth whose growth is fueled by the heavy pollution of the waters.

A part from the Homa Bay plant, LVEMP will also rehabilitate and expand sewerage plants in Kisumu and Bomet at a cost of Ksh. 370 million and 40 million respectively. The designs works for the two areas is also complete.

In addition, all sewerage treatment plants will now have a lab. The labs will help to check the quality of what has been treated and ready for discharge.

In Kisumu for example, Ksh. 40 million has been pumped into buying equipment for water quality lab. It will also be used to monitor and control the activities s carried out in the catchment areas.

Some areas in Homa Bay will not be served by the sewer lines. In such areas not covered, 7 exhausters will be purchased by LVEMP to help empty septic tanks. Bio-toilets sanitary facilities will also be constructed in small towns and markets.

In line with East African Community, effluent discharge standards have been established and harmonized amongst the five member states of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda.

A memorandum of understanding has also been signed by the five states over the implementation of the same.

END.

KENYA: COMMUNITIES IMPROVES THEIR LIVELYHOODS THROUGH WORLD BANK FUNDED PROJECT

From: Dickens Wasonga
Date: Mon, Sep 9, 2013 at 2:57 PM
To: jaluo karjaluo jaluo@jaluo.com

By Dickens Wasonga.

Communities living along the shores of Lake Victoria are now gaining hugely, thanks to the support they are receiving through the World Bank funded Lake Victoria Environmental Project.

In Nandi in the rift valley and Nyando in Nyanza, the locals have ventured into massive tree planting as a way of environmental conservation and the results are impressive.

A part from reclaiming most of the forest cover that was cleared and turned into farmlands, the residents are now reaping huge benefits from the sale of tree seedlings from nurseries so far established through LVEMP’s support.

The multimillion project which began in 2010 is targeting the implementation of two main broad objectives in its collaborative approach to management of shared natural resources within Lake Victoria Basin.

Working with selected community groups which have been undertaking activities targeting to reduce environmental stress within the basin, LVEMP is also sponsoring activities aimed at changing the livelihoods of the communities.

The regional project is implemented by all the five member states of the east African community.

It is undertaking its activities through the government lead agencies who offer technical support to the benefiting groups in selected catchment areas.

In Kenya it is targeting the river Nyando basin and along the shores of Lake Victoria.

According to LVEMP’s national project coordinator madam Francisca Owuor, so far a total of Ksh 116 million has been disbursed to 114 community groups in areas covered by the project.

It is expected that before the project end in 2015, a total of 240 groups will have been supported.

Speaking at the close of a week-long field excursion organized by LVEMP 2 and attended by twenty journalists from various media houses the coordinator disclosed that Ksh 400M will be spent in the community driven development activities.

She told the journalists that LVEMP has also approved proposals from 225 groups and funding for them is underway.

However, 111 groups whose proposals were approved are yet to be launched to begin implementation of various activities because they are still undergoing environmental impact assessment by the national environmental management authority.

The benefiting groups are those that were already doing something to protect the environment and at the same time engaging in livelihood changing activities.

Most of the groups are for example , engaged in tree planting along the river banks, other s are controlling soil erosion by laying soil conservation structures like gabions and erection of terraces among others.

Apart from conserving the environment, they are also fully embracing commercial agriculture. Some communities have established tree nurseries through the financial support offered by LVEMP while others are keeping dairy animals and keeping bees.

In the North rift, areas around Nandi Hills, in Nyando and Homa Bay counties, communities are now planting millions of trees in their farms and along the river banks. They are also protecting water springs by planting bamboo and other tree species that protect the water towers.

The project was necessitated by the realization that Lake Victoria which supports an estimated 30M people either directly or indirectly was facing huge environmental challenges and the stress was linked to unfavorable human activities within the basin which needed to be reversed.

Water levels in Lake Victoria were alarmingly low due to silting because of poor farming activities upstream, quality of the lake water s was greatly compromised as a result of pollution, aquatic immensely interfered with and so there was urgent need to reverse this trend.

END.

Russia MFA & use of chemical weapons in Syria

From: Yona Maro

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Comment by the Information and Press Department of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the investigations into the use of chemical weapons in Syria
THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

1676-04-09-2013

We draw attention to the mass filling of information space with different materials, the purpose of which is to impose responsibility for the alleged use of chemical weapons in Damascus on the Syrian officials, before the results of the UN investigation are presented. Thus, “the ground is prepared” for forceful action against Syria. In view of this, we deem it possible to share the main conclusions of the Russian analysis of the samples taken in the place of the incident using military poisonous substances in the Aleppo suburb – Khan al-Asal.

We remind the reader of the tragedy of the 19 March, which resulted in the death of 26 civil persons and military persons of the Syrian army, whilst another 86 persons received injuries of different severity. The results of the analysis of the samples, conducted at the request of the Syrian authorities by the Russian laboratory, certified by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, were transferred to the UN Secretary-General on the 9 July in connection with the call by the Syrian authorities to the latter to conduct an independent investigation of this episode. The main conclusions of the Russian professionals consist in:

– the warfare used was not regular Syrian army ammunition but was an artisan-type similar (in type and parameters) to the unguided rocket projectiles produced in the north of Syria by the so-called “Bashair An-Nasr” gang;

– hexogen was used as an explosive, which is not part of the regular Syrian army ammunition;

– shell and soil samples contained nerve agents – sarin gas and diisopropylfluorophosphate – not synthesized in an industrial environment, which was used by Western states for producing chemical weapons during World War II.

We highlight that the Russian report is extremely specific. It is a scientific and technical document containing about 100 pages with many tables and diagrams of spectral analysis of the samples. We expect that it will significantly assist in the investigation into this incident by the UN. Unfortunately, it has in fact not started yet.

The attention of those, who always consciously intend to impose all the responsibility for events on the official authorities of the Syrian Arab Republic, is now fully switched to the events in Eastern Ghouta. However, here we have “flawed selectivity” again. These are evident attempts, in particular, to forget the data about cases (which were presented to the UN by officials from Damascus), when Syrian army personnel was affected by poisonous weapons on the 22, 24 and 25 August, when they found materials, equipment and containers with traces of sarin gas in the suburbs of the Syrian capital city. As is known, the affected military persons were examined by members of the UN fact-finding mission headed by Ake Sellstrom. It is evident that any objective investigation into the incident of the 21 August in Eastern Ghouta cannot be carried out without taking into account these circumstances.

In light of the foregoing, we welcome the statement of the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that Ake Sellstrom’s group intends to return to Syria at the earliest to continue their work, including in the Khan al-Asal region.

Cyber-espionage: The greatest transfer of wealth

From: Yona Maro

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– – – – – – – – – – –

By: Pierluigi Paganini

Introduction

In recent months, the world-wide security community has discovered many cyber espionage campaigns that hit governments, intelligence agencies and private industry. The majority of them were related to state-sponsored hackers, while others were organized by groups of cyber criminals having obtaining access in order to resell sensitive information and intellectual property.

There is no specific area of the globe subject to the majority of cyber espionage attacks. Typically, they center on the most technologically advanced countries: the US, Japan and Russia, mostly. But a good number of operations have also been detected in problematic regions like the Middle East as well.

The technologies used to spy on victims, and the motivations behind them vary. Network surveillance appliances, communication cracking techniques, malware and “social network poisoning” are just a few of the methods adopted for political, economic or criminal intents. Profit, power and protest are the main motivations behind the attacks, radically affecting a user’s approach to the web and its perception of security.

Cybercrime groups, governments, and groups of hacktivists tend to lean toward the spread of malicious agents that have the capacity to silently infiltrate their targets, stealing confidential information from them. The Chinese government is considered the biggest aggressor in cyber espionage, while US networks are the privileged targets of cyber attacks that hit every sector, from media to military.

A report published in 2012 by the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission revealed that “U.S. industry and a range of government and military targets face repeated exploitation attempts by Chinese hackers, as do international organizations and nongovernmental groups including Chinese dissident groups, activists, religious organizations, rights groups, and media institutions.”

“In 2012, Chinese state-sponsored actors continued to exploit U.S. government, military, industrial, and nongovernmental computer systems,”

The report revealed that Chinese cyber exploitation capabilities last year were “improving significantly.” But while the US has as many enemies as allies, all of us in the cyber era are potential victims. The number of state-sponsored attacks is increasing in impressive ways, due to the commitment of governments to cyber technology.

According to the last report of F-Secure related to H2 2012, one of the most interesting phenomena observed in the period is the changing of techniques for cyber espionage campaigns. To this point, almost all recorded corporate espionage cases were based on using specially-crafted documents containing a malware payload; meanwhile, in Q4, the attackers have started to exploit vulnerabilities in in web browsers and browser plugins.

The consolidated technique known as the ‘watering hole‘ attack was the most efficient for cyber spies, capable of infecting every visitor of a particular website compromised for the campaign.

“The rise of web-based attacks in corporate espionage raises two points: first, this trend means that any corporation with an online presence that serves such potentially ‘interesting’ targets may be at risk of unwittingly serving as an attack conduit, and secondly; obviously, such organizations must now find a way to mitigate such a risk, in order to protect themselves and their clients.”

Figure 1 – Waterering Hole attacks (F-Secure)
Every company that manages online resources must be aware of this technique of attack. Defending against watering hole attacks does not require additional defense systems, save for attacks that exploit zero-day vulnerabilities against which a multi layered security approach is necessary.

Cyber espionage Statistics
Estimating the real impact of cyber espionage on the global economy is quite impossible, due to the difficulty in identifying the majority of cyber attacks accounted for in each sector.

NSA Director General Keith Alexander called cyber-espionage “the greatest transfer of wealth in history.“Symantec places the cost of intellectual property theft for U.S. economy at $250 billion a year, with cybercrime a further $114 billion annually. Meanwhile, McAfee provides an estimate encompassing global remediation costs to total a staggering $1 trillion per annum.

The UK Cabinet Office reports intellectual property theft and industrial espionage costs of £16.8 billion in 2012. The 2012 Verizon Data Breach Investigations Report (DBIR) reported 855 security breach incidents in industrial and corporate networks, totaling 174 million compromised records across the US, UK, Holland, Ireland and Australia. Of these 855 incidents investigated by the DBIR, 92% went undiscovered until an external party revealed them.

The figures provided are very troubling. While enormous, we must remain conscious that the true extent of cyber-espionage is incalculable. Private companies and governments often do not report losses because in many cases, they aren’t able to detect the attacks. When the cyber espionage campaigns are discovered, information on them may be kept secret for fear of brand and/or reputation damage, company devaluation and loss of public confidence.

In many cases, estimates provided on the impact of cyber espionage don’t include the cost of defense systems deployed (and eluded by the cyber threats), as well as the cost of compensation and remediation actions of the victims.

Case Studies: Operations Aurora, The Elderwood project, Flame and Red October
If you ask a security expert to provide some examples of the most interesting cyber espionage campaigns in the history, you will probably hear about some of the following cases:

Campaign Name Description

Operation Aurora Operation Aurora was a cyber attack first publicly disclosed by Google on January 2010. It began in mid-2009 and continued through the end of the year.Google revealed that the sophisticated attacks originated in China, they were well-resourced and consistent with an advanced persistent threat attack.The attacks were aimed at dozens of organizations operating in various sectors, including Adobe Systems, Juniper Networks, Yahoo, Symantec, Northrop Grumman, Morgan Stanley and Dow Chemical.

The Elderwood project In September 2012, Symantec detected attacks that were part of a cyber espionage campaign called the “Elderwood Project.” Their execution exploited various 0-day vulnerabilities in many large-use software including IExplorer and Adobe Flash Player. Symantec declared that some of the exploits had been realized from knowledge of a stolen source code, assuming a link with the known operation, Aurora. The attacks implemented “watering hole” techniques to infect the victims with malware, injecting malicious code onto the public web pages of sites that the targets visited.

Flame The Flame campaign was discovered in May 2012 by Kaspersky Labs. The nature of the systems targeted and geographic distribution of the malware (the Middle East), combined with the high-level of sophistication led security experts to believe that it was developed by a foreign state, intent on hitting a specific country in the region. Flame is a complex malware, designed with the primary intent to create a comprehensive cyber espionage tool kit.

Red October Most recently, the Red October campaign has been revealed by Kaspersky Lab’s Global Research & Analysis Team. The investigation began after several attacks hit computer networks of various international diplomatic service agencies. This was a large-scale cyber espionage operation conducted to acquire sensible information from diplomatic, governmental and scientific research organizations in many countries; most of them in Eastern Europe, former USSR states and countries in Central Asia.Unlike previous cyber espionage campaigns, Red October has targeted devices, including enterprise network equipment and mobile equipment (Windows Mobile, iPhone, Nokia). It hijacked files from removable disk drives, stole e-mail databases from local Outlook storage or remote POP/IMAP servers and siphoned files from local network FTP servers.Most troubling was evidence collected that demonstrated the campaign began in 2007 and is still active. During the last 5 years, a huge quantity of data collected (including serv
ice credentials) has been reused in later attacks.

Reading the list of cases, one observes that many cyber espionage campaigns remained undetected for a long time. Resourceful attackers in fact used, in many cases, zero-day vulnerabilities that allowed them to elude detection by principal defense systems. In some instances, the hackers have stolen documents and sensitive information for years, changing the operative mode over time. This particularity led investigators to believe that the campaigns were organized and managed by groups of professionals possessing a variety of skills, including research capabilities to uncover and exploit unknown vulnerabilities.

On the Elderwood operation, Orla Cox, a senior manager at Symantec’s security response division, reported that it has uncovered at least eight zero-day vulnerabilities since late 2010, and four since last spring. She said:

“We were amazed when Stuxnet used four zero-days, but this group has been able to discover eight zero-days. More, the fact that they have prepared [their attacks] and are ready to go as soon as they have a new zero-day, and the speed with which they use these zero-days, is something we’ve not seen before.”

Symantec produced a detailed analysis of the phenomenon, stating:

“This group is focused on wholesale theft of intellectual property and clearly has the resources, in terms of manpower, funding, and technical skills, required to implement this task,”

“The group seemingly has an unlimited supply of zero-day vulnerabilities.”

The level of sophistication of the attacks, the targets chosen and abilities shown by the attackers suggest the commitment of a foreign government. Moreover, security experts believe that in many cases, the campaigns are linked each other, citing the case of Operation Aurora and the Elderwood project. With a majority of attacks linked to state-sponsored actors capable of organizing so complex an operation, the investigation on Red October revealed the possible involvement of Russian RBN, long considered a cybercrime outfit capable of providing an array of malicious services, including phishing, DDoS, malware hosting, gambling and child pornography.

Figure 2 – Elderwood project global detections

Cyber espionage and private businesses

Small business is the most vulnerable to cyber espionage. It represents an attractive target, due the lack of security mechanisms and processes as well as – in many cases – the direct relationship between enterprises and governments. In recent years, the number of attacks against government contractors has increased. A cyber attack against a subcontractor is easy to realize, as the line of defense penetrated is often fragile, allowing the attackers to acquire sensitive information from targets of interest.

Last year, Trend Micro reported an increase of focused attacks. Hundreds of millions threats were blocked from infecting small businesses, but large companies proved equally vulnerable, having been hit as part of the IXSHE campaign.

A recent study on cyber-espionage has demonstrated that more than 200 families of malware have been designed and used to spy on government and corporate representatives.We have assisted the diffusion of new agents that work in botnet architectures, as new variants – designed especially for mobile devices – are specifically developed for selected targets.

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The primary intent of cyber espionage is to steal classified information from government agencies or trade secrets from corporations. This situation can be extremely dangerous for the economy of a company, as well as that of the overall country. As governments and businesses alike are motivated to reduce the technological gap with their competitors, it’s clear how diffused the phenomenon is.

Cyber espionage can have a devastating effect on the social fabric of a nation as well as on the actions of every private company. It is sneaky and silent: unlike other crimes, it may be conducted for years without the victim being aware of it with serious consequences. This happened in the case of Nortel, a company which ended up in bankruptcy due to the theft of company secrets.

Last year, the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive published a report to Congress, presenting a frightening picture of the degree to which other countries use cyber espionage to attempt to gain business and industrial secrets from US companies. The biggest cyber-espionage threats against American businesses come from China and Russia. These states engage in deliberate efforts to obtain sensitive business and technology information. The report concludes that China and Russia will “remain aggressive and capable collectors of sensitive US economic information and technologies, particularly in cyberspace.”

“National boundaries will deter economic espionage less than ever as more business is conducted from wherever workers can access the Internet,””The globalization of the supply chain for new—and increasingly interconnected—IT products will offer more opportunities for malicious actors to compromise the integrity and security of?these devices.”

The document called the Chinese government a “persistent collector”: the most active one, while depicting Russia’s intelligence services as conducting a range of activities to collect economic information and technology from US targets.

The increased number of malwares developed by governments to spy on their adversaries (such as Flame, Gauss and Duqu, as well as the recent “Operation Beebus” campaign) demonstrate the high interest of intelligence agencies to implement these methods to acquire restricted information.

Recently, MI5 issued 300 warning letters to UK business leaders highlighting the risk of “electronic espionage” from Chinese organizations. MI5 Director General Jonathan Evans declared that an “astonishing[ly]” high level of cyber-espionage campaign target Western countries on an almost industrial scale.”

The number of corporate victims underscores a troubling trend: criminals aiming to steal corporate secrets and intellectual property with the intent to benefit in economic terms. The information leaked is usually resold to competing companies and governments interested in strategic know-how.

We must distinguish two scenarios:

Cybercriminals steal information to perpetrate cyber fraud: spreading malware to steal a user’s credentials for banking and payment platforms.

Cybercriminals use technology to acquire sensible information to sell to highest bidder.

Uri Rivner, head of new technologies at RSA, is convinced that we are in the age of cyber espionage. Criminals steal trade secrets from other nations and companies for their own benefit. Consider another phenomenon: the impressive growth of internet availability in Asia Pacific, which has brought to this part of the world an increase of cybercrime and in particular of cyber espionage.

In this area, there is a growing demand for information technology that is often vulnerable to all sorts of cyber attack. These conditions make the market attractive to criminal organizations in the absence of effective regulations that often allow crimes to go unpunished.

The web is a jungle where it is increasingly difficult to defend our identity and resources. Rik Ferguson, director of security research and communication, Trend Micro declared:

“The reason why criminals are focusing their attacks on stealing personal data is simple. It’s the sheer volume of people working from multiple devices that leaves them vulnerable to attacks,”

“While Trend Micro has been integral in working with authorities to break up a number of cybercriminal rings over the last year, these cybercriminals have acquired new techniques and tools from collaborating with one another to accelerate their ‘industry.’ The fact is: business is booming for cybercrime and everyone needs to take notice.”

In the face of these ongoing threats, government agencies are defining best practices to reduce the risk of exposure to these attacks. NIST has recently made public their Draft Special Publication 800-83 (SP) Revision 1,Guide to Malware Incident Prevention and Handling for Desktops and Laptops. Malware is considered the most common external threat to personal computers, causing widespread damage and disruption and necessitating extensive recovery efforts within most organizations.

The publication provides recommendations for improving an organization’s malware incident prevention measures, while giving extensive recommendations for enhancing an organization’s existing incident response capability. These approaches seek to better handle malware incidents, particularly widespread ones.

Though cyber espionage as such is not considered one of the main activities of hacktivists, thoughtful security experts don’t rule out the possibility. Groups such as Anonymous could easily adopt cyber espionage techniques to disclose sensitive information as a means of expressing dissent against a government or the policy of a private company.

When cyber espionage is deployed in the private sector (where companies spy on competitors, as well as their own employees, to capture vital information or to avoid unauthorized diffusion of confidential data), they acquire products from software outfits specializing in cyber espionage. The tools may be designed for justifiable purposes, such as supporting investigations and preventing of crime and terrorism. But too easily, they can be utilized by private businesses to undercut competitors, as well as by governments, in the bloodthirsty tracking and persecution of dissidents.

Social Media and cyber espionage

So far, this article has focused on cyber espionage based on the spread of malicious agents to gather confidential information. Also of great interest is cyber espionage as spread through social media. By accessing a social network profile, it is possible to acquire a lot of information on the victim; their relations; participation in events and discussions related to specific professional areas. The information gleaned could provide the basis for other types of attacks, as well as for a large cyber espionage campaign. By analyzing the relationships of a victim, it is possible to discover past experiences and use the data to create fake accounts, damaging their reputation and poisoning their professional network.

Starting with the assumption that the internet (and in particular, the social network) lacks a coherent and safe digital identity management, last year, I introduced the concept of social network poisoning: applying strategies designed to make knowledge related to a profile and its relationships unreliable. The application of this on a large scale could lead to the collapse of Social Networking, exposing members to the risks of cyber espionage and other cybercrime such as identity theft.

In the same way as “route poisoning,” this “poisoning action,” conducted with the aim of polluting the contents of social network profiles, typically introduces artifacts into existing real relationships, thus making the information unreliable. The result is the failure of the chain of trust which all social networks are based on, in order not to allow search engines specifically developed to retrieve information of any kind relating to a particular profile.

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The principal espionage techniques implemented through social media platform are:

Replacement of identity, or the ability to impersonate another user, using a wide variety of social engineering intelligence tactics.

Simulation of identity, creating a false profile, which does not correspond to any existing person, for malicious purposes or simply to remain anonymous.

Building of personal /social bots , creating a large number of fake profiles (e.g. millions of fake profiles) managed by machines, able to interact with real users in a way likely, thus changing the “sentiment” and “conversation” on a large-scale, as well as altering all the social graphs and precluding meaningful correlations on the data.

black curation: the use of real (or fictitious) user’s “holes” to speak on topics of which you want to change the meaning, or to create new ones ad-hoc, in analogy to the black SEO (search engine optimization) already use on search engines.

The social networks are excellent instruments to conduct cyber espionage campaigns while gathering information on targets. For this reason, it is strongly suggested that you consider carefully which profiles to add to our network, recognizing the possibility that some of them have been already compromised. This gives cyber criminals or spies the possibility of accessing information shared in the profile.

The intelligence industry in the west is still too vulnerable to all kinds of attacks, so it is absolutely necessary to define cyber strategies to deal with incidents like those described.

Last year, the impressive growth of state-sponsored attacks aimed at stealing information (to give economic, political and military advantages) famously included the cyber espionage campaign against NATO’S most senior commander, using the Facebook platform.

Chinese spies set up a fake Facebook account in the name of American Admiral James Stavridis, enticing his colleagues to “friend” him and thus divulge their own personal information. In the attack’s second phase, Senior British military officers and Ministry of Defence officials accepted “friend requests” from the bogus account.

With this attack successfully completed, it became possible to steal sensitive information like private email accounts, photos and messages, as well as uncover his network of friends. Similar incidents are troubling, and show how even the higher echelons of strategic commands may be vulnerable, too.

If you think the information uncovered in this way is unimportant, you are mistaken. Let’s think about how it can be used to find photos of a victim’s residence, or determine his location at a given time. Further, with the knowledge of their private email account, it is possible to target people close to victims who may be misled by fake mails.

Of course, similar operations are hampered by the controls enacted by the managers of social networks, in collaboration with major institutions and law enforcement. The stakes are high and control of social networks is strategic. Many agencies and law enforcement agencies like the FBI are working to prevent such crimes. They’ve commissioned the development of complex analysis systems that monitor the powerful networks. Intelligence agencies are aware that social networks and forums are exceptional instruments for information gathering and to measure the global sentiment on every kind of argument; political as well as social.

What is the future of cyber espionage?

The relentless spread of high-tech devices into our lives will sustain the practice of cyber espionage. Mobile and social networks are the platforms that attract the interest of attackers most of all, due to the large quantity of user’s information they manage. New advanced toolkits are sold daily via the underground, usable to exploit vulnerabilities inside victim’s machine with the primary purpose of installing malware that can gather confidential information.

From a government perspective, state-sponsored research aims to produce new technologies, able to infiltrate common-use objects. The most innovative ones relate to the use of electromagnetic waves that could spy on a targeted network or interfere with communications, altering the content of transmission (for example, introducing a malware in it).

That is the future of cyber espionage: the possibility of interfering with targeted systems remotely, acquiring sensitive information silently. Another interesting field of research is related to the “intelligence of things”: the possibility of exploiting the computational capabilities contained in every object surrounding us, interacting with users maintaining a huge quantity of information. Mobile devices, but really, any kind of appliance present in our home (such as smart-TV and gaming console) can be used to spy on the user. Governments have instituted an array of projects to exploit the vulnerabilities.

The greater the technological component of our lives, the greater the potential for cyber attacks.

References
http://www.uscc.gov/annual_report/2012/2012-Report-to-Congress.pdf

http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/drafts/800-83-rev1/draft_sp800-83-rev1.pdf

http://www.verizonenterprise.com/resources/reports/rp_data-breach-investigations-report-2012_en_xg.pdf?__ct_return=1

http://resources.infosecinstitute.com/flame-the-never-ending-story/

http://www.symantec.com/content/en/us/enterprise/media/security_response/whitepapers/the-elderwood-project.pdf

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Network_Poisoning

Fixing the Cracks in Tax: A Plan of Action

From: Yona Maro

In this policy brief, 34 organizations that collaborate to achieve tax justice provide recommendations to the G20 and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on the Action Plan presented by the OECD, in July 2013, to tackle base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS).

The OECD’s BEPS Action Plan is a welcome and long overdue step forward. The OECD – and also the G20 and the G8 – has clearly acknowledged that base erosion is a serious problem that threatens the integrity of the Corporate Income Tax, and damages governments, individual taxpayers and some businesses.

The BEPS Action Plan provides a unique opportunity to foster fundamental changes to prevent double non-taxation of income effectively, as well as to prevent cases of no or low taxation associated with transnational corporations’ practices that artificially segregate taxable income from the activities that generate it.

If successful, the project will help governments tackle tax avoidance and evasion by transational corporations. However, strong political courage will be required to define, implement and enforce reforms to counter base erosion effectively.

Link:
http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/fix-the-cracks-in-tax.pdf

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