News Analysis By Leo Odera Omolo In Kericho Town.

SOME of the amorphous tribally driven political alliances being formed specifically with one simple agenda; that of how prevent the Prime Minister Raila Odinga from succeeding President Mwi Kibaki as the next President of the Republic are likely to be fizzled out even long before the next poll slated for March 4, 2013.

The residents of this rich tea growing region have become increasingly weary of the anti-Raila sentiments, and wee now demanding that the anti-Raila elements should be clear in their campaign agenda.”They should tell us what they intend to do for Kenyans instead of filling the air with anti-Raila empty political slogans and rhetoric’s,” remarked a prominent politician in Bureti district J.L Ng’eno.

A leading KANU politician in Kipsigis land William Kipkemoi Arap Kettienya has cautioned his community to aware and move cautiously about the numerous tribally oriented political alliances. ’These alliances, he said could be recipe to chaos and mayhem.”

The common belief of many people in this region is that some monetary interests has driven politicians are the one who have of late ditched the ODM and crossed to form amorphous alliances with wealthy politicians from other region.

Unfortunately those forming alliance don’t go back home and inform their people what such alliances entail to their communities. It is the question of serving selfish interest. And this is one of the reasons why they have decamped from the ODM in the recent past sought for green pasture in other parties, which are led by wealthy politicians from other regions.

Another prominent Kipsigis politician who has requested that his name should not be mentioned predicted that “As soon as the campaign resources, which are said to be n abundant supplies in the TNA-URP alliance dries up,’Our people will begin running back to the ODM, which I believe is the only.”

During my numerous interviews with the leading personalities and residents of this rich tea growing region of Kericho and Bomet Counties, I gathered some vital information which are clearly indicating that despite of the intensive heat of mid-slinging campaign against Raila Odinga mounted by some Kalenjn MPs aligned to the Eldoret North MP William Ruto, the Prime Minister is still the darling of the majority of the Kipsigis people.

The community is not comfortable with the political alliance an coalition TNA_URP, but the people here are willing t vote for Ruto if he is contesting the presidential seat alone on his own on URP party ticket.

The people of this region, which is part of the expansive Rift Valley Province, are not comfortable with Ruto-Kenyatta alliance as simple mischievous and political sell-out. They are viewing such an alliance as it seeks to sideline other Kenyan communities from the mainstream of national politics in the country and as such could be recipe to chaos and mayhem.

I also discovered that the normal quiet UDM party which is led by the retiree former Dept CGS Lt.Gen {rtd}.John Arap Koech, who is himself a highly respected Kipsigis personality is the second most preferable political movement after the ODM. What the UDM must do in order to build its credibility is put its grass root structures on the ground. It should conduct its grass rot election and set in motion its activities in the region.

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FOR RAILA ODINGA TO REGAIN A STRONG FOOTHOLD IN THE SOUTH RIFT THE ODM MUST CHANGE ITS TACTICS AND STEWARDSHIP INCLUDING EMPOWERING RUTO’S KNOWN POLITICAL ENEMIES IN THE REGION.

News Analysis By Leo Odera Omolo In Bomet Town.

He recent series of quiet political maneuvers by the Prime Miniister Odinga such as making an overture by way of engaging the URP leader William Samoei Arap Rutoin late night behind the scene meetings could be arguably said to bear nothing significantly important like any added value to his precarious position and fast waning popularity in the South Rift and in some parts of the expansive Rift Valley Province.

Instead of such unworkable maneuvers and holding night dialogue meetings Rail Odinga should take a bold step and empower certain individual political personalities, particularly anti-Ruto elements within the vote rich Kipisigis regions covering Kericho and Bomet counties.

The ODM also must extend its wing and network into the neighboring Trans-Mara East and West districts where the Kalenjin population almost equals those of the indignant Maasais. The ODM candidate in Kiligoris constituency John Ng”eno who gave the incumbent MP Gideon Konchellah a run for his money in the 2007 general elections.

The supporters of the Eldoret North MP William Samoei Ruto in the South Rift region are viewing thee Raila Odinga’s maneuvers as portraying the picture of some one who is embroiled in a great panicking of loosing the impeding presidential election.

At the same time the few Kalenjin MPs who are still firmly in the ODM apart from the Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey and the Aldai Mp Dr Sally Kosgey they lacked the ammunition and power with which they could puncture a hole in the URP euphoria which is currently sweeping the Kalenjin region like the torrential rains.

The three ODM MPs in the region include the Roads Minister Franklin Bett {Buret},Home Affairs Assistant Minister Beatrice Kones {Bomet} and Energy Assistant Minister Magerere Lang’at {Kipkellion} These MPs are so scared and afraid of challenging Ruto, hence they are branded by their electorate as {traitors] therefore nursing the fear of loosing their parliamentary seats to the URP candidates come the March 4,2013 polls.

The only sensible option open to Raila Odinga to regain a foothold in Kipsigis inhabited region is to empower anti-Ruto elements operating from within Kericho and Bomet Counties and outside Parliament.
The men lie Donald Ng’eny, former cabinet Minister John Arap Koech, former Sotik MP Antony Kimeto{Sotet} and the UDM leader Lt.Gen
[rtd} John Koech are capable of taming Ruto’s enormous influence in the region. What Raila Odinga and the ODM should do is to empower these people by way of providing them with ammunition with which the cold use to inflict punctures in Ruto’s popular vehicle traversing the region.
Raila’s close advisers who are arguably the few MPs fro the region that still cling to the ODM obviously lacked political dynamism and magnanimity and their steam to drive Ruto out of the South Rift, though they are aware that the entire population are not comfortable with the Eldoret North MP’s closeness to Uhuru Kenyatta.

The entire population in the South Rift believes Raila Odinga stands for the genuine reforms and his anti-impunity crusade is well taken by the voters, they are sometimes getting confused with sweet tongue deployed by URP agents, MPS and many political hirelings engaged by the party in a protracted propaganda war against Raila Odinga in the region with nobody countering such pack of dreadful lies being spread like bush fire.

The ODM must engaged the UDM on serious discussions and facilitate its activities by providing the party leaders with quick travelling means.UDM influence is well spread into the neighboring Narok North and Narok West as well as Kiligoris constituencies with the Narok County.In these areas, Raila Odinga is sill the darling of the electorate, but he only lacked the well coordinate foot solders to carry on the party flame into the heart of the population. People are left to occasionally hear the ODM gospel on how best to save this nation when Raila himself visited the region.

Raila’s other party MPs, especially those from Luo-Nyanza and KJsii regions bare buy locked in parochial issues and internally political squabbling within their localities thereby preventing them from visiting regions outside their home Province to conduct effective campaign to popularize the party and its presidential candidate.

It could be remembered that it was the Kipsigis political kingpin the late Kipkalya Kones and the Lt Gen {rtd} John koech who facilitated Rala Oding triumphant into Kipsigis region in 2007 when they defiantly hosted “Agwambo” in Kapkatet against the odds including the vehement opposition from KANU and the retired President Daniel Arap Moi. Raila entry into Kapkatet where he addressed the mammoth of crowd was the turn point.

It shifted the Kipsigis politics from KANU to the ODM. This is because Kapkatet Center fro where the late Ex-Senior Chief Cheborge Arap Tengecha had ruled the region with an iron fist for decades during the colonial era up to the early part of Kenya’s ‘s attainment of political independence in 1963 is considered s the heart of Kipsigis politics.

During Raila’s visit he was made an elder of the Kipsigis community and given the name of AraP Mibei an honour, which is specifically bestowed to the most revered to persons.

The next thing if Raila’s presidential votes had not been messed b the disbanded former Electoral Commission of Kenya”Agwambo” would have taken to a special prayer at the Tiluet Ab Kipsigis, the holy shrine in a small hill standing on the right and opposite Kericho Nakuru highway to be installed as the Laitoriat Ap Kipsigisiek [King of the Kipsigis people}. Unfortunately this did not work as planned.

The kipsigis a sub-tribe of the large Kalenjin ethnic group is the most populous community among the dozen or so Kalenjin sub-clans. The community is endowed by the most arable and fertile highland with sufficient annual rainfall making the area to be the favorite region for tea growing. This has made member of this proud community slightly more wealthier than their cousins fro the North Rift due to the sale of green leaves tea crops to the multinational tea companies and KTDA managed eight tea processing factories located in Kericho and Bomet Counties.

The community has the best brains and highest numbers of intellectuals compared to other Kalenjin sub-tribes. Its members despite of high education are always prone to political manipulations by their semi-illiterate cousins from the North Rift who took the advantage of the Moi KANU regime.

During the Moi era member of the community were used and dumped by the self-proclaimed professor of Kenya politics, particularly those who were considered to be potential for accession to the national political outlook and those who won parliamentary seat were technically forced to serve for only one parliamentary term, before being replaced by others greenhorns who were groomed by the government.

This had negative impact to the community and systematically denied its member the accession to the national politic. Level minded member of this community believes and maintained that William Ruto who is also a product and disciples of the Moi regime had the same ambition to ensure that the Kipsigis people are kept in the periphery of the mainstream of Kenya’s politics.

The majority of the Kipsigis people believes that Ruto and URP euphoria would fizzled out fast be fore the ext general election, which only five moths away, and many people would return to the ODM. This is the one single community which had fought in close to three or four tribal clashes with its neighboring communities,

The fears that persist about Ruto style of leadership is given credence by his actions while he was the Deputy leader of the ODM, which allegedly saw him deploying the Moi tactics in locking out of parliamentary race in various constituencies of those who m him he did not favor. The majority of them were rigged out during the primary nominations, which only saw his favorite aspirants winning the preliminaries
The community has lost man of its loved one and property and would like to see peace and tranquility prevailing and the time and inter-communal feuds become the matter of the past and consigned to the dustbins of history.

The vote-rich South Rift regions could raise up to 2 million votes and of course each and every presidential aspirant would like to outshine his rivals in the region so as to benefit from the he number of votes.

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