From: mundia mundia

Isaac Abrabanel, as one of the great thinkers stated that, “In this light, continuity can be assured through the government of a succession of leaders as long as they are aware that they must provide an account of their actions.”

Many Kenyans are beginning to digest by the political speculation of certain coalition force and the way this ‘coalition’ interprets national unity as principle of playing politics and its readiness to share the costs of financing the last-gasp campaigns from December 4th until election time, pushing other party contenders away from the merger. This merger has to some extent failed to deliver nationalism by being politically vengeful. Its lack of healing and concern for leading the nation only brings more doubt especially when the coalition’s aspirants are seen together. Are the two together to help balance our political scale?

The current micro-political partisan activities like forming ‘questionable coalitions’ and party barter-trading are not official acts of presidential aspirants and they are not meant for our national agenda. Rather, the key agencies of micro-politics are television shows, populist meetings, social clubs and Internet mobilizations; and its key targets are bodily electoral affect, stepping up social tempers, changing political moods, and provoking electoral sensibilities; and never national leadership.

This political speculation appears to be having a narrow egoistic preoccupation as such leaders find no need for a constant, inviolable national formula for the sake of the electorate. The romantic feature inherent in the inverse affair has become increasingly passive and neurotic and precipitated by the ICC ‘Diaspora divorce of nurture’. The affair’s intention appears to discredit the ICC internationally through the local vote to make the world believe that the voters desperately yearn to have its torchbearers as their only leaders. Internationally it is a fact that the newly re-elected US President Barrack Obama and ODM’s leader Raila Odinga are democrats and are seen to be ambassadors of real change. That may be a fact why the two seem to be backing The Hague process keeping in mind their attachment and interest with Kenyan and African issues while protagonists seem to be backing the Republican ideology that is not keen on African political matters. This does not mean that the ICC issue is political but a way of promoting fairness, human rights and justice to all.

Unfortunately, TNA-URP divorce would be more pronounced the time the cases start in April next year secondary to the ‘aggressor -defender’ nature of evidence at The Hague. If the current romance is not a political fact of vengeance, at least the ICC fact can become a romance away from leadership. Why should the two marry in December this year and then divorce in April next year, climbing the political summit of our elections with high hopes of rolling down fast within four months? Is TNA-URP outside time JUST LIKE Mitt Romney was prior to the election? This appears so. In fact the wider the circle of followers TNA and URP would have, the wider the circle of opponents they would attract come voting time and through the trial.

It is no wonder that a third force as coalition is being formed to neutralize ‘The Hague vs. Raila’ political contest. Firstly, Uhuru and Ruto formed their coalition with the sole intention of ‘embarrassing’ Raila, this time round using the ballot. They will be left alone to fight their own battle. Secondly, there would be two ‘neutral’ forces as a broad-based alliance where Western and Coastal coalition is likely to stand ground while the Eastern and North Eastern coalition would be made to ‘appease’ Raila, later for them to withdraw to join the Western-Coastal coalition, and other smaller independent parties. No time will Kalonzo, Mudavadi, Balala, Ngilu, et al, be close again to Raila for long, for they would not want to be seen to be supporting TNA-URP or ODM. This move of (politicians) ‘slithering’ towards Raila and withdrawing would be a tactic to make him appear a weak candidate where everyone would be running away from, leaving him ‘alone’. An example is when Jonestone Muthama, who in February this year stated that, “Kalonzo is the main threat to ODM.”…“My brothers, do you know that if things go that way (ICC), we are going to win this battle?”… “If it happens so, we will realize good tidings.” Thus the merger between ODM and WDP would be short-lived and Kalonzo would be around Raila to help boost his personal presidential bid.
Certainly there is a chance for Kibaki, who fell out with Raila before forming the coalition government (type of governance only suitable during a crisis and worse for national leadership and progress) to ‘secretly’ team up with the ‘Moi elite’ for a revenge contest to beat Raila. It should be noted that in 2002 Moi, who hoped Uhuru would succeed him as president, was beaten through the Raila’s ‘Kibaki Tosha’ strategy.

Thus the third force, all coalitions apart from TNA-URP, are likely to merge as one and be the determining factor in relation to who will win the general elections and prevent Raila from garnering 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 counties. This is if the electorate will use the old kind of voting system that is ethnic based, tribal, non-issue based and undemocratic. For the politicians, their game would be to play safe, appear clean and far ‘away’ from The Hague suspects and Raila and also have ‘regional’ numbers. Those that would, by any chance, defeat Raila would not be those allied directly to the TNA- URP coalitions but a ‘neutral’ coalition blessed by those resisting change; on the one hand and Uhuru and Ruto on the other.

For many, Raila is seen to be the person most responsible for shift in political change in Kenya just like President Obama is; others only joined the ‘Raila congregation’, with the master of political aphorisms leading the team. He is not seen just as the Prime Minister but the Prime Mover of our politics, playing politics by design even with the transference of ‘ICC exiles’ around the ballot. His success has been the stimulating interest that his politics brings, which is immeasurable, greatly feared and his debates in national political circles charging. His only curse being that many chose to open cans of bait against him on issues that touched on his persona, business-related matters and alleged corruption cases; from Ruto, Ngilu, Musalia (who took advantage of their positions to loot), to the ‘come-baby-come’ matters of individual concern. At least the Kenyan electorate has awoken and opened the eyes after observing the US politics, campaigns and elections once again. We have a chance to do likewise with our right conscience and never the ethnic partisanship as malpractice that take us years back. The time to look where the tribal kingpins place the communal vote or decide how the voter will vote is over. The voter ought to vote on issues and not for the party leader.

Consequently, the problem of tribalism in our current campaigns must be confronted in the agony of our electoral mind and not the politicians’ manipulations and interests than for the electorate to live in the horror of ‘ethnic’ silence and burden of personal irresponsibility after the elections, as voters with a catalogue of false post-election sympathy for any eventualities. It is said that the limbs are imperfect unless they are accompanied by the intention of the heart. Time will tell come April.

As a political fact, many thought Raila was a “selfish” politician. In the course of years, however, many learned to appreciate that his “selflessness” was a manifestation of a strong leader and an exalted national figure. He has been advocating for a policy of forgiveness and reconciliation even with his fellow politicians but some still doubt him. He is a leader because ‘he puts on his shoes and ties his shoelaces’ not allowing anyone else to do that for him. Real selfish politicians created Railaphobia as they played victim with the electorate, especially in Rift Valley and Central regions. They claim through propaganda, that ‘He used ‘us’ to fight ‘them’ and ‘we’ only retaliated against them and ‘his people.’ They made him be hostage to the ICC pre-occupation even as the Hansard records proved that he was not responsible for the politicians’ ethic fate.
On the other extreme hand, Ruto is currently tying Uhuru’s buckled shoes and vice versa; maybe that is why they are in their current ‘shoe-tying’ political trial. Their seemingly ultimate purpose of ‘defeating Raila’ has become an act of political self-unification and not that of bringing Kenyans together.

Personally, I take the ‘Orange philosophy’ as faith and ‘eleventh commandment on the ballot’ and not merely as a political stand but a radical vision for the year 2013 and the future; thirteen being a very unlucky number for some. I wonder how many Kenyans as voters are willing to ‘waste’ their votes in the name of spoiling for another candidate? Will thirteen million votes be ‘wasted’? Will your vote make you a better Kenyan as an individual or will you be voting for the sake of massaging the egos of certain politicians?

The poetic license…Twende Netherlands Alliance (TNA), Uhuru na Ruto Pamoja (URP), as epithet for humor, may prove comedy but it is shocking to learn that some Kenyans are ready to take their votes to The Hague.
Politicians may decide who their sprawl torchbearers would be but the voters as majority will decide who their president shall be; this, and all else in the relations amongst Kenyans, and it is a matter of the true ‘people power.’ The Kenyan national commonwealth for all, from the cradle to geriatry, should lead our hearts within the borders of our country and never Netherlands, for the sake of the nexus of our neo-political electoral history.

Consequently, may it be a strategy to make TNA-URP win elections, send them to The Hague, create a regional ‘political crisis’, call for ‘emergency’ elections and allow one of them to form the next ‘coalition’ government? Did Raila have the last chance to become the fourth president of Kenya in 2007? Or will he, this time round, win the elections transparently and be president? What future does it hold for East Africa whose region’s presidents are comfortable with the status quo and not with Raila around? Will the April election spark a regional democratic revolution that would bring in new leaders?

Personally, I better be ‘stateless’ than to have my ‘head of state’ with an international criminal charge lead me as he faces trial. One disturbing issue is whether political harmony will be within our borders if Raila wins or otherwise not. Never again should a Kenyan voter be ‘everywhere a guest, and nowhere at home’ in our motherland. What will remain in our conscience and history is that the government, through local institutions, failed to deliver justice to victims of political violence. Raila should speak to the electorate directly and he shall be sure of being the 4th president of the republic. Come, voter, come. Come, April.

Mundia Mundia Jnr

Mundia Mundia Jnr.