Political News Analysis By Leo Odera Omolo In Kericho Town.

A new mega political alliance aimed at cutting Raila Odinga down to size ahead of the year 2012 general election is on the offing.

The heavily moneyed group consisting of the Vice President Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, the Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, Tourism Minister Najib Balala, and the suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto is said to have set a side a huge sums of money running into billions for this purpose.

The money is to be used in popularizing the group’s political activities, mostly in the expansive Rift Valley.

The colossal amount of money is also reported to have been set aside for a propaganda campaign. Certain scribes working with the the media houses, women’s gropes, and political operatives, have been recruited and handsomely paid for their part in misinformation and concoction of stories that could work for the downfall of the Prime Minister.

A testimony to the scheme hatched by the group to undercut the Prime Minister Raila Odinga was seen in two major Harambee fund drive held at the week end. One of the Harambee meetings was held at Sosiot in Belgut and the second meeting was held at the Kericho Secondary School in Ainamoi constituency. Both meetings realized over Kshs 10 million and the principal donors were Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, Najib Balala and William Ruto.

From now onwards, similar Harambee meetings will be held on a weekly basis in all areas where the Prime Minister Raila Odinga still maintains the lead and stronghold with the purpose of scuttling his grip hold on certain communities in the region.

A source in Kericho has confided to this writer that a colossal amount of money has been set aside by the group for the purpose of generous hand outs to the youths.

Other strategies being put in place to financially empower William Ruto to enable him to conduct weekly Harambee meeting in all the eight parliamentary constituencies within the County of Kericho and Bomet. Substantial amount of money is also set aside to undercut the die-hard Raila supporters including MPs from the region.

The coming weeks will see more fund drives being conducted in Buret, Bomet, Sotik and Kipkellion constituencies. These are the places where the group says there are still some element of Raila’s supporters and pockets of resistance.

But Raila’s silence, not reacting to some of the malicious and falsified accusation and unfounded allegation against him by the Ruto camp, has playing in his favor. He is seen as behaving like a true statesman by avoiding childish utterances commonly associated with his opponents.

The Buret MP is the Road Minister Franklin Bett, while the Bomet MP is Mrs Beatrice Kones who is an Assistant minister for Home-Affairs. Kipkellion MP is Magarer Lang’at who is an Assistant minister for Energy, and the Sotik Mp is Dr.Joyce Laboso.

The four have maintained unswerving loyalists of the Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his ODM party.

The battle field is the most populous Kipsigis sub-tribe of the larger Kalenjin ethnic groups. This community is the largest single voting unit with the voting strength estimated to be in excess of 1.3 million voters.

In the year 2007 the community voted for Raila Odinga’s presidential bid on a man-to-man basis enabling the ODM to swept the board harvesting all the eight parliamentary seats in the region.

During the August 4 referendum voting for the new constitution, the community, however, changed its alliance and voted for the Reds, which was led by the suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto.

But what later emerged is the fact that the majority of the referendum votes could be credited to the retired President Daniel Arap Moi who had joined the Ruto group in opposing the new constitution. But within the community itself, the majority of the conservative voters have yet to forgive William Ruto for having brought down Moi’s KANU regime in 2002 when he collaborate with Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga and formed a formidable Narc Kenya force that forced Moi out of the office.

There is a quiet undercurrent of political maneuvers going on among the Kipsigis elite to the effect that the community would not be happy in any association linking the Kipsigis with the Kikuyu community. This is the very community, which the Kipsigis had single handedly fought for years starting with the tribal clashes of the year 1992-93, 1996-1997 and the 2008 post election violence.

In all past tribal skirmishes between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin over land disputes in areas like Kipkellion, Londiani, Molo, Kuresoi, Elburgon and Mau area, the Kipsigis who had formed the bulk of the dreaded Kalenjin Warriors of 1992, which launched full scale operations simultaneously in all fronts against those communities, had supported the clamor for the reintroduction of the multi-party system of politics in the country against the then monolithic one party system.

Hundreds of the internally displaced persons of those skirmishes are still living in makeshift camps in Central Province, parts of the Rift Valley, and fears persist that there could be the renewal of similar tribal clashes. The ordinary Kipsigis people have no confidence in their immediate neighbors nor is there any iota of mutual trust between the two communities. The planned mega alliance pitting Kalenjin and then Kikuyu communities together in the same mega political group would be an up-hill task for its proponents.

Therefore the war of attrition between William Ruto and Raila Odinga is viewed by many level minded Kipsigis people as personal, and perhaps due to shortsightedness on the part of the Eldoret North MP who seemed to be in hurry of being an over all political king of the rift Valley.

Former President Daniel Arap Moi, recently working in cahoots with Ruto during the referendum voting campaign, is seen as a political marriage of convenience, which could fizzle out and melt into the thin air at any time. But Moi remains a power to reckon with in the Kipsigis region.

Those who knew Moi well in his character say the retired President has yet to forgiven Ruto for his role in bringing his government down in 2002. And also for having vigorously campaigned against his three sons in the 2007 general election, which saw the Professor of politics favorite sons loose the Baringo Central seats, which the family has held ever since its inception in 1962. Moi’s sons, who lost the elections, were Raymond Kipruto Moi who contested the election in Rongai constituency, and Jonathan Toroitich Moi, who contested and lost the Eldama Ravine seat. The chances of reconciliation between Moi and William Ruto are said to be the remotest.

But if such a move could succeed in cutting Raila Odinga down in size, it is obvious Moi would readily give his blessing to such a scheme against the man – – the same Raila Odinga who worked in cohorts with William Ruto and succeeded in bringing his twenty four year reign of power to an abrupt end in 2002.

Moi is said not to be so happy with Raila in recent moves to have his personal fortune in the multi-million shillings investment of Kapgatich Tea Factory in Olenguruone in Mau West scuttled for the purpose of saving Kenya’s largest water Tower the Mau Forest Complex.

Moi is also said to have read malice in Raila’s involvement in mass eviction of Kalenjin illegal squatters from Mau Forest, most of them the people whom he had personally settled in the area and duly issued them with the land title deeds. The majority these squatters being from the Kipsigis, but with a sizeable number of Moi’s own Tugen sub-tribesmen from Baringo region.

Other Moi insiders would be rather comfortable working with his former right hand man Nicholas Kiprono Kipyator Biwott rather than William Ruto. And an elaborate plan has been hatched to persuade Biwott to abandon his National Vision Party of Kenya, which is also making major inroad in the South Rift and rejoin KANU to strengthen it in readiness for the 201w general election. But the adamant powerman Biwott could hear of this plan and has flatly turned down the request for him to rejoin the mama na Baba party of independence.

All in all there seem to be no clear winner in the current war of attrition that is going on in most part in the Rift Valley. Two other senior politician in the region who are equally earmarked to be cut down to their original sizes are the Agricultural Minister Dr. Sally Kosgei, and the Industrialization Minister Henry Kosgei.

Dr Sally Kosgei is the MP for Aldai a cosmopolitan constituency, which is located in the western part of the North Nandi district and whose inhabitants consisting Teriks, a small concocted sub-tribe with both Maragolis and Kalenjin blood.The Teriks are also known as Nyang’oris or Tirikis.

Raking it into account, given that Dr Sally also has a mixture of Luhya/Kalenjin blood relations, she would be hard nut to crack by the Ruto’s brigade. But Henry Kosgey, who is also like William Ruto having a mixture of Nandi/Kipsigis blood could be a sitting duck and an easy prey for the Ruto troop soldiers, though the Minister’s pockets are said to be heavily lined making his garrison not to be for an easy overrunning by in Ruto’s planned onslaught on Raila’s loyalists in the Rift Valley.

The Ruto – Raila war in Bomet constituency could ends up in favor of Moi and not the Eldoret North MP. The same end is expected in Buret where Moi’s right hand man Paul Sang {Chaman Buch} is scheming against the Road Ministr Frankli Bett who is perceived to be one of the Raila loyalkists in the region.

Ruto’s spanner – boy Charles Keter in Belgut would, however, survive this time. He survived through Ruto’s intervention when he was badly trounced by the former Corporate Director and Sales Manager of Chemelil Sugar Company Justice Kemei, but Ruto prevailed at the ODM headquarters which gave in and cancelled Kemei victory certificate, which was later issued to Keter despite of the fact that he had lost the election to his rival Kemei.

Keter has had no easy relations with the top management of the multi national foreign owned tea companies, most of them situated in Belgut, and appeared to be spending most of his parliamentary serving the interest of his mentor Ruto with the very least activities in his constituency. He is viewed by the electorate as someone who has already abdicated his duties and r3esponsibikity.This has given the leeway to the former Mp for the area Charles Kirui a former Finance Assistant Minister and the most astute Kipsigis politician to come back into the picture.

Another Ruto spanner boy is the youthful Ainamoi MP Benjamin Lang’at who had inherited the seat from his murdered elder brother, the late David Too, who died in a hail of bullets fired by an enraged police traffic officer in Eldoret following what many people viewed as “Love Triangle” incident shortly after being sworn in as an MP.

Lang’at too would be ousted by either Moi’s die-hard loyalist or an ODM aspirant. Come the year 2012. In Kipkellion the youthful Assistant Minister for Energy Magerer Lang’at is still strong enough to retain his place on ODM ticket now that the vast constituency would like be split into two before the 2012. Another Ruto’s politician is the outspoken Konoin MP Dr Julius Kones, who the residents say stands a very little chance of seeing an inside of Parliament comes the 2012 general election.

In Chepalungu, Ruto’s strongest ally in Kipsigis land, and the outspoken Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto, is likely to be one of the 2012 first causalities in the region. The ODM is slated to retain this seat through another aspirant of.ODM still maintains a sizable following in Sotik constituency and the seat currently held by Dr Joyce Laboso appeared to be safe.

The perception and widespread rumor, that Raila Odinga has already lost as far as his influence in the South Rift is concerned, could be faulty and not true. But it is also good to say that both the Kericho and Bomet counties are currently under the invasion of hundreds of prophets of doom and political brokers hunting for handouts, cannot be ruled out.

The power-brokers of Kericho town are like angry wild bees. They have driven out of the town politicians, especially MPs, and have made leader abandoned all the posh hotels in town. Even the politicians driving home from Nairobi to the various destinations in Western Kenya like Kisii and Kakamega are said to be skipping and avoiding stop-over in Kerich town due to the ever presence in hotels by the power-brokers-cum-beggars.

Armed with information that Raila’s camp is not familiar in the politics of giving handouts to the youths, Ruto and his handlers are said to have set aside huge sums of money for the purpose of giving handouts to the youths and changing them to their side.

Observers and pundits in this region maintains that Ruto and his team will not succeeded in hounding Raila out of the region because of the time limits. By this time, the group should have already declared their new political party of affiliation. Therefore the battle for the South Rift is still far from being won by either Ruto or Raila’s camp and is still widely open for all.

.Ends

leooderaomolo@yahoo.com