From: Mugo Muchiri

Los Angeles, CA

December 16, 2010

INTERVIEW WITH MUGO IN AFTERMATH OF ICC NAMING OF KENYAN SUSPECTS

Q: Now that the cat’s out of the bag and Kenyans finally know the names of the six people whom ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo deems as bearing the highest responsibility for the 2007 post-election violence, what do you make of this development?

Mugo: Well to have gotten to this point as a country is simply amazing. For me it’s still unbelievable and I think I require a few more days, maybe weeks, to fully digest this whole thing.

Q: Do you think this is a positive development for the nation?

Mugo: Unquestionably so. The history of Kenya is one of a nation so full of promise but whose potential has time and again been stymied by a political class that’s essentially thrived on feeding themselves and their interests while demonstrating an almost absolute disregard for the common man. So many people – over 1300 Kenyans – lost their lives purposelessly. Over one half millions lost their homes and are living under conditions that only endangered species like the rhinos would envy. Yet on no less than three occasions, Parliament defeated efforts at establishing a local tribunal to try the perpetrators in Kenya. They kicked the can, perhaps armed with the confidence that ICC justice is always marked ‘return to sender’ until 2090. Well 2090 is here.

Q: Are you implying that Ocampo’s efforts will stop politicians and other powerful people from exploiting ordinary Kenyans?

Mugo: What I’m suggesting is that we have a system that has just taken a hit, maybe not fatal but certainly a significant blow. For the first time really, people at the top of the country are really shaken. They are seeing that ‘Untouchables’ are running scared. Uhuru Kenyatta is from one of the most powerful families in Kenya; Muthaura is at the apex of Kenya’s once vaunted civil service and a very close friend and confidant of President Mwai Kibaki; Ruto is essentially the voice of the Kalenjin people; Kosgei has never been felled by any scandal – and they are many that have been reported and are in the public domain – but has managed to maintain incredible power even under what Kenyans initially believed were two diametrically opposed administrations (Moi and Kibaki). So what do you think these examples demonstrate to the political class?

Q: Well, what do you think they demonstrate?

Mugo: Game’s over, that’s the stark lesson here. Even the President or Prime Minister cannot protect you no matter how much support, by way of votes, you may have brought them.

Q: You mentioned presidential or prime ministerial protection being powerless. How did that happen? Are we seeing the end of the Big Man syndrome in Kenya and Africa in general?

Mugo: That’s a great question. For starters, I don’t wholly believe Ocampo when he says that all he did was follow the evidence. I don’t think this is the whole story. I am convinced that if an evidence trail were to be followed, then it would have led directly to the President and the Prime Minister. I’m talking about an investigation in the mold of Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward’s efforts…..you remember the Watergate scandal that brought down Richard Nixon.

Q: On what strength do you base that thought?

Mugo: For example, it’s widely suspected that there were meetings at State House Nairobi with Mungiki members, amongst others, to plan for retaliatory attacks against ODM supporters in Naivasha and other PNU strongholds. The question then becomes, ‘Can meetings take place at State House without the Big Man’s knowledge?’ Maybe so. But my hunch is it’s improbable. Similarly, there was a lot of information about secret ODM strategy meetings prior to the 2007 election. Here, mass action was supposedly discussed and how to unleash it in the event the elections were deemed to have been rigged in their disfavor.

Q: But I don’t see anything wrong per se with mobilizing the masses to exert political pressure. I mean labor unions do that all the time, often with great success.

Mugo: That’s true, but here’s the caveat: When has mass action in a poor country not been followed by looting, destruction of property, maiming and even killing? Is it utopian to assume mass action by poor folks can be effected a la Gandhi? So the question then becomes: Did the planners of mass action really want to inflict destruction and untold suffering? Did they want to make the nation ungovernable and in the process up their bargaining position to achieve their political ends? Did they knowingly plan for destruction but couched such intentions under the guise of civil non-violent disobedience? And if so, is it reasonable to assume that they kept this a secret from their leader? Again I think it’s improbable. A strong prosecutor will tell.

Q: So you’re saying that the two Big Guys have direct responsibility for all the mayhem?

Mugo: I’m not in a position to definitively say that, but I strongly suspect they do. And I think Ocampo has the indicting evidence. He just won’t spill all the beans.

Q: Why do you think he would be hesistant to go after the ultimate causers? Isn’t that what justice is all about especially given that over 1300 died and half a million were dislodged from their homes?

Mugo: You know these things, yaani high stakes politics, is something many of us don’t understand. Especially because they’re done under the veil of secrecy. However I do have a hunch.

Q: Well what does your crystal ball tell you?

Mugo: In the larger context, what would the benefit of hauling two leaders – albeit very powerful individuals – to the Hague be? Has Liberia been substantially freed from the clutches of corruption with Charles Taylor being in the docks at the ICC? I think certain key people in the United States and the European Union knew that what’s at stake here is a system, a system that’s rotten to the core………. and that it’s that system that needs to be seriously and meaningfully reformed.

Q: OK, but where are you going with this?

Mugo: It’s called leveraging culpability. In other words, grant conditional immunity from prosecution, but make it plainly clear that such immunity collapses in the event certain parameters or benchmarks aren’t met.

Q: Like what?

Mugo: For one, the passing and promulgation of a new Constitution. I joke that somehow Massachusetts mysteriously relocated to Kenya and all stops were to be pulled to prevent a Scott Brown from taking Senator Kennedy’s ever-safe democratic seat. Think of the high-level administration officials that came to Kenya……. Johnny Carson, then Hillary Clinton, finally Joe Biden………… I mean this was America in full-throttle campaign mode over Kenya’s impending constitution vote.

Q: You’re right, it was quite a show of interest, wasn’t it? Remember Vice President Biden with his specially fortified SUVs and security detail?

Mugo: Yeah, and of course his central theme was that you’d get a whole lot more American business investment under the new Constitution, etc.

Q: You mentioned other parameters, what d’you think they were?

Mugo: The other benchmarks – and this is really critical to our discussion here – were a complete collaboration with the ICC and its Chief Prosecutor (including making public pronouncements and a Cabinet resolution to that effect) and a promise not to impede Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission (KACC) in its work (you’ve seen a significant infusion of American capital hereafter).

Q: You seem to distrust the notion a Kibaki-Raila alliance could have been the vehicle for fundamental change including delivering the new Constitution. Why, especially given that both campaigned for it so fervently?

Mugo: You’re spot on. Impending doom of a shared kind…….fewer things concentrate the mind more. Again this is just a hunch but my sense is that when it became clear that they might be held directly liable if certain things weren’t accomplished, then you see a remarkable chemistry develop between the two men. This has really never happened since Kibaki’s swearing-in in 2002. Theirs has always been a tumultous relationship where interpersonal battles were often done through proxies (esp Muthaura, Orengo and Anyang Nyong’o).

Second, everyone knows that despite having enormous power to do so, Kibaki’s fight against high-level corruption has been feeble. The same is true for Raila. It’s easy to see why. Both men are super wealthy and been in government almost all their lives. Kenyans can read between the lines. How can you remove the splinter in another’s eye when……….well, you get the story.

Q: Well we’re running out of time, what are your last thoughts regarding the future of Kenya?

Mugo: I’ve moved from being cautiously optimistic to being above-averagely optimistic. When all is said and done, I think President Obama’s incumbency will have accomplished for Kenyans what the collective presidencies of the three Kenyan Heads of State couldn’t : free Kenyans from the clutches of a political class that within a span of 47 years succeeded in transforming a nation that was economically at par with Singapore, Malaysia and S. Korea to the hallowed company of Afganistan, Somalia, Bangladesh and Haiti – the 14 most corrupt nations of the planet.

Now credible efforts will be made so that the 270 billion shillings that the country is currently losing through corruption, per Treasury PS Kinyua can be directed towards useful life-supporting activities like education for our children; sustainable agriculture and employment for our youth; infrastructure development; at least 10% forest cover. Kenya will be the bright star in the family of Nations.

Q: Is there a reason you’re not fabulously optimistic?

Mugo: Yes. Two words: INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. As long as we have pressure from America and the European Union, then so long will the Kenyan people have the upper hand. Power will continue to shift away from the political class to newly empowered institutions and more in the direction the people. The greatest strenght of any nation is in its collective consciousness. May Kenya rise to integrated national consciousness which will strengthen the conscience of the Kenyan people so that actions are more in accord with natural law and always upholding of human dignity.