News Analysis By Leo Odera Omolo In Kericho Town.

The premature assumption, that the political influence of the Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga has waned in most parts of the vast Rift Valley Province, particularly in those area inhabited by members of the larger Kalenjin ethnic groups, is just a myth.

The ODM is still the party of choice, and Raila is still commanding a very substantial number of votes among the Kalenjins and non-Kalenjin registered voters as per 2007 registration in the region.

Moreover, the Kalenjins are not the only inhabitants of the Rift Valley Province. If the number of people registered as voters in this region could be forensically audited, on constituency by constituency, the result would show that the number of the genuinely registered Kalenjin voters did not exceed 1.5 million voters in the whole of the Province.

There is no assurance that these people would all vote for Ruto-Kenyatta amorphous alliance in whichever party the duo chose to run on its ticket at the election time.

Rift Valley has thousands of residents who are not members of the Kalenjin ethnic group, but whose voting strength is well spread from Aldai and Tinderet in the Nandi County, Eldoret North in the Uasin Gishu County, Trans-Nzoia, Kericho County, Samburu, Turkana and Pokot regions, Samburu, Laikipia, Nakuru and Naivasha and Narok and Kajiado Counties.

The Maasai and Kikuyu factors in some parts of the Rift Valley Province must be taken into account by whoever is a amateurish political analyst. If William Ruto and his handlers are banking of harvesting the all of the 1.8 Kalenjin votes as per the 2007 registration, this could be a piped dream.

It is obvious that there will be a substantial increases in the percentage of voters when the new generation Kenyan youth got their new national identity cards and duly registered as voters, but such expected increase could push the voting strength on upward trend in the Kalenjin inhabited region to close to 2 million mark.

In order to come out with an accurate figure about the latest standing of voters registration, the expert analysts should visit registered voters roll in most parts of the Rift Valley Province, which if there is anything like iota of the truth to go by is tilted in favor of Raila Odinga.

Following the newly found political alliance of Kenyatta, Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka, newspapers in this country have been carrying out reports by biased political analysts based on ethnicity overtones that Raila chose to have another shot at the presidency in 2012, he will go into the race minus the many Kalenjin votes in the Rift Valley.

The truth of the matter is that not all the 1.8 million registered voters in the predominantly Kalenjin inhabited regions are actually members of the Kalenjin ethnic groups. Half a dozen of rural constituencies in the lower part of the Rift Valley could be termed as cosmopolitan constituencies.

The Kalenjin people who are arguably the indignant people of the Rift Valley are scattered from the Mt. Elgon, to Laikipia, Nakuru, Naivasha, Molo, Kuresoi, Rongai, Subukia, Trans-Nzoia,Trans-Mara and in other regions are sparsely populated. A moderate estimate would give the pure Kalenjin voting strength to 1.5 M and not 1.8 M as claimed in recent analysis by people with vested tribal interests.

One single and moist populous Kalenjin sub-tribe, which is a member of the larger Kalenjin ethnic groups, is the Kipsigis. This particular community occupied the rural reserve land in two Counties of Kericho and Bomet. Its members are also well spread on he Diasporas regions like Trans-Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Laikipia, Nandi, Trans-Mara, Molo, Nakuru with strong concentration in Molo and Mau Narok areas. The community also wielded a lot of influence in politics of Rongai and Subukia constituencies in Nakuru County as well as in Kuresoi in Molo region and also in Diasporas area of the neighboring Kilgoris and Narok North and Narok West. But is combined voting strength in the Rift Valley Province as whole could be moderately estimated to be around 800,000 or slightly more.

The Kipsigis is followed in population strength by their Nandi cousins, a community whose strength is spread to the neighboring Uasin Gushu County and Cherangany in Trans-Nzoia. However, the combined voting strength of the Nandis could not exceed the 500,000m marks The County of Nandi has two parliamentary constituencies whose inhabitants could be said to be a mixture f multi-ethnics. These are Aldai which has a large numbers of Luhyas inhabitants and Tinderet which has the largest number of immigrant workers in th tea plantations and factories from the neighboring communities of Luos, Kisiis and Luhyas{mainly the Maragolis and Tirikis}.

A combined voting strength of the sparsely populated like Sabaot,Turkana,Rendiles,El-molo,Samburu, Pokot, Marakwet,Tugen and Keiyo does not exceed 300,000 though these small and nomad communities had more constituencies, a factor which could as well be attributed to the influence of the retired President Daniel Arap Moi during his twenty four years reign of power. The number of registered voters in some constituencies does not exceed 30,000 or far much below that figure, but they were favored with more constituencies in the same fashion as they were favored with good road network, communications and electricity supplies as well as good infrastructure in general.

Those prophets of dooms, who have been dismissing Raila as a finished man in the Rift Valley, appear to be deliberately ignoring the Moi factor and the resurging of KANU influence in some pats of the predominantly Kalenjin inhabited regions. The retired President is still a power to reckon with in the region. Those ignoring his influence must do so at their own peril because he is still calling shots among the diverse communities in the region.

In the 2007 general elections, the Kipsigis was one single community in the South Rift, which voted to Raila and ODM on man to man and woman to woman basis. The Kipsigis gave Mr Odinga close or over 600,000 voters and voted in eight ODM MPs in Chepalungu, Bomet, Sotik, Konoin, Buret, Belgut, Ainamoi and Kipkellion parliamentary electoral constituencies. Members of this community living in Diasporas in Kuresoi also vote for an extra MP for ODM bringing the figure to nine.

Raila and his ODM party had the unswerving support services of the late Donald Kipkalia Kones now deceased following an aircraft accident, and the former Deputy Chief of the General Staff {CGS}of the combined Kenya armed forces Lt.Gen. {rtd} John Arap Koech . The two highly respected personalities in Kipsigis land launched vigorous campaign that propelled Raila to the top when it came to the polling day.

The only grave mistake Raila did at the material time was that he over-trusted his deputy ODM party leader the Eldoret North William Ruto who had a burning presidential ambition, and therefore was not playing in the same league with “Agwambo”.

Ruto while working in collaboration with the Belgut MP Charles Keter had secretly hatched secret plan to ensure that no Raila loyalist has won any elective post in the region. All those who were perceived to be staunch supporters of Raila were either fought in a tooth and nail battle or were deliberately rigged out. Kones, Lorna Laboso, Franklin Bettnrowl survive the onslaught and squeezed narrow victories in their respective constitencies.

One aspirant Justice Kemei a former Marketing and Corporate director at the Muhoroni based Chemelil Sugar Company had beaten Keter who is a Ruto’s spanner boy hands down during the party’s prel8minaries, but was eventually denied clearance at the Orange House on the alleged Ruto’s instruction. Lt. Gen. Koech was rigged out at Ainamoi and young school headmaster in the name of the late David Too was cleared for having won. In the consequent by-election which took place after Too was murdered by a police traffic officer in Eldoret town, K0oexch was rigged out for the second time. He vehemently protested against the outcome and wanted the preliminary re-run again, but despite of his plea for irregularities his appeal did not materialized, and the late David Too’s younger brother who was still very fresh from the

Another important factor in the Rift Valley is the Maasai. This particular community occupied the two Counties of Narok and Kajiado and has the most important votes. Most of the Maasai reserve land has in the recent past been invaded by new immigrant from other neighboring communities, but with more than half a dozen parliamentary constituencies, the Maasai stand to be the deciding factor in the Rift Valley.

The Maasai are said not to be dancing the tone of Kenyatta and Ruto or to that of Kalonzo Musyoka, and consider they not to be members of the extended Kalenjin ethnic groups. The Maasai are well spread in Laikipia, Nanyuki and in Samburu.

The Maasais voting strength in the Rift Valley is close to slightly over 400,000

University of Nairobi School of Accountancy Benjamin Too was erroneously declared the winner to the chagrins of the voters in Ainamoi. All these happened despite Raila having been forewarned of Ruto’s secret scheme to derail him. The warning and advice were ignored.

Another blunder made by Raila was that soon after the peace negotiation conducted by the former UN Chief Executive Dr. Kofi Annan, which resulted in the formation of the grand coalition government of PNU/ODM, he was et up by his political enemies to handle the most volatile issue of evicting the illegal squatters in the Mau Forest, one of the biggest water tower in the region.

Raila political enemies within the coalition government knew pretty well that Raila was on a collision with the Kalenjins, the community which had voted for him on 100 per cent in 2007, and had hatched a scheme to undercut him and delink him to that very community. Despite of the pleas and advice from certain quarters that such a move would only depict him as an enemy of the Kalenjin people, Raila hastily rushed into the issue and publicly vowed that he was ready to accept any political responsibility and its eventual consequences, the costs and price.

In this context, Raila wanted to succeed in evicting the so called illegal squatters from the Mau Forest, a crucial move where the previous presidents like Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki, had filed, though he had no executive power to do so.

He was too much in hurry to print his authority on volatile issues., But he should weighed his options while knowing it pretty well that the scheme to assigned him on this particular responsibility was ploy hatched elsewhere by his perceived political enemies and was going to mirror negatively on his political future with possible adverse repercussions.

As a “Agwambo” brushed his shoulders with the Kalenjin legislators who came up fire spitting in defense of their community. At the same time emerged reports that some of the legislators led by his deputy William Ruto were frequenting Harambee House for secret meetings with the Head of State over the same issue, which is the most intriguing aspect of it, and a clear indication that the move had only half-hearted government backing.

Raila should have smelt a rat of the political scenarios that followed the hullabaloo about Mau Forest eviction of the so called illegal squatters, majority of them who were said to have been allocated their and by the retired President Daniel Arap Moi and had secured their land registration certificates and title deeds.

This was a gross miscalculation by Raila because he played in the hands of his political enemies, who knew the repercussions of such action, taking into account that the land is the most valued asset by the Kalenjin people just next to their sacred herds of cattle. His detractors had succeeded in delinking him to the community that made him become the second Prime Minister of the Republic of Kenya. However, all is not lost and a close check by this writer, has unearthed the truth is that the majority of the ordinary Kalenjin people, apart from the political hirelings and so-called power brokers are still having faith and confidence on the Prime Minister and would vote for him in the 2012 and his party despite of the intensive heat turned on him by the Kenyatta,Ruto Kalonzo Musyoka axis.

Raila need only to move with speed and smash the allegations heaped on him that he is a difficult person to work with as well orchestrated by William Ruto and his troop soldiers in the Rift Valley. He needs to refute in the strongest term that he is a lone ranger who listens to nobody’s advice.

He is equally admired by the Kalenjin for having displayed the politics of maturity and statesmanship by ignoring the insults hurled at him by the Kenyatta Ruto and their supporters at the various public rallies, which members of the public believe to be false propaganda.

Ruto, who is trying to take over the mantle of Kalenjin leadership still fall short behind Daniel Arap Moi. He is betrayed by his family tree lineage. He is said to have been a member of the Kipsigis community from Belgut region and that his family had moved to Nandi, but could not establish his true sub-clan back in Kipsigis. The same is happening with his Nandi linkage. He could not identify the real sub-clan, which he belonged to, and many people were now casting doubt about his real identity and family background.

The common talk of building up another leader to lead the Kalenjin to political glory in the near future is the offing, and the man whose name is frequently being mentioned is the former Agriculture Minister Kipruto Arap Kirwa. Other names being flkated included that of Franklin Bett the Minister for Roads, the nominated MP Musa Sirma, former power-man and a long serving cabinet Minister in the Moi regime Nicholas Kiprono Arap Biwott.

Ends