If PNU pulls out of the coalition today, Can Raila win the election in Kanya today?

Assume Kibaki is running again.

An answer accompanied by intelligent analysis void of psychofancy and biaseness is encouraged. Tribal king pins are encouraged to skip it.

Barack

– – –
Date: Thu, 20 Nov 2008 05:05:47 +0000 [11/19/2008 11:05:47 PM CST]
From: barack abonyo
Subject: CAN RAILA WIN THE PRESIDENCY IF THE ELECTIONS ARE CALLED NOW?