http://blog.jaluo.com/?p=1666
Date: Thu, 20 Nov 2008 05:05:47 +0000 [11/19/2008 11:05:47 PM CST]
From: barack abonyo
Subject: CAN RAILA WIN THE PRESIDENCY IF THE ELECTIONS ARE CALLED NOW?

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Barack,

First, my 10th great grandfather Ragem agrees that this is a fair question but it is damaged. It is as good as asking: if elections were held today, would Gore beat Bush? Remove Kibaki out of the question and ask whether Raila could beat Bifuoli Wakoli, Ruto, Karua, Uhuru, Saitoti or Kalonzo.

Be it as it may, we both are in agreement that Raila beat Kibaki before, but Kibaki rigged himself in through the eye of the electoral commission. Despite the dark period we went through, I put it to all and sundry that even though the diplomats think it’s not business as usual, NOTHING HAS CHANGED in Kenya, and they care less. All they care for is calm and peace that benefits them. I will explain my point later. I say nothing has changed in Kenya to allow anyone else to win at this time because the old constitution and institutions, (Kivuitu, Wako, Gicheru) are still effectively in place.

If you asked whether Raila can still craft a formidable coalition, woo and win voters from the rift to the coast, east to west, north to north-east and even win the election hypothetically, the answer is yes. But this is inconsequential because Karua, Kilonzo, Michuki, Saitoti, Uhuru, Musyoka, Mirungi and the afoe mentioned institutions, will not allow it. They will succeed in holding on to power because NOTHING HAS CHANGED in Kenya, at least not yet.

I hold the position that the donor community participated in promoting the historical injustices by funding Kenyatta’s, Moi’s and Kibaki’s administrations despite solid evidence of corruption therein. Because they have significant stake in Kenya in investment and as a strategic location, the donor community would rather allow and support a bloated cabinet, and look away when MPs vote to increase their allowances and even refuse to pay taxes. Now you understand why some cannot sign a petition directed at these same interested criminals. Just look at how they cannot stop simple pirates operating dhows hijack ships off Kenya and Somali cost, and how quickly they are willing to pay ransom in the name of capitalism. It is the same spirit they have in pumping donor money to Kenyan parliamentarians so that they can continue to vacation, trade and hold their strategic interest intact.

There is hope however. The energy being used to hold together political alliances need to be harnessed and channelled towards changing our constitution and let federalism prevail. All our tribal leaders will negotiate the interest of their regions from a position of strength. Past injustices, including those stemming from the recent post election violence have their remedy in this solution. This to me seem to be issue we need a Joshua for, and not reducing salaries.

Barack, you have the energy that need channeling to the right place. You too can be The One. Or are you that one?

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Date: Thu, 20 Nov 2008 22:05:01 -0500 [11/20/2008 09:05:01 PM CST]
From: Joram Ragem
Subject: Re: CAN RAILA WIN THE PRESIDENCY IF THE ELECTIONS ARE CALLED NOW?