News Analysis By Leo Odera Omolo In Kisumu City.

The sudden change of heart, which has seen the Immigration Minister Gerald Otieno Kajwang’ in a surprise move to contest the Homa-Bay County Senate seat instead of defending his otherwise safe Mbita parliamentary seat, has thrown political thinkers in the region into a total confusion. Political pundits were quick in suggesting that the Minister’s move is a “big blunder or a political suicide”, that could see the Minister’s early ext from the local political derby in the region.

For Kajwang’, the man who had done very little in his Mbita constituency in terms of development to wine the voters in all the eight parliamentary constituencies would be an up-hill task.

Residents of Mbita says this is Raila’s secret scheme aimed at locking out of regional politics the people of Suba origins who are believed not to be in his favor.

Local pundits, however, maintains that the move has some political connotation and intrigues involving a scheme suspected to have been hatched with the blessing of the Prime Minister Raila Odinga with express purpose of creating a safe parliamentary constituency for the entry into the August House by a young son of his father’s long serving aide, the late Mbewa Ndede.

The late Mbewa Ndede, was among several Luos who were rounded up by the KANU regime under the retired President Daniel Arap Moi and taken to the Nyayo House Torture Chambers, tortured and later prosecuted for being members of the outlawed “Mwakenya” underground movement.

The late Mbewa Ndede was convicted on his own plea of guilty and sentenced to five years imprisonment with hard labor. He completed his jail sentence and after his release from prison he succumbed to injuries which he had sustained during the interrogations at the Nyayo House Torture Chambers and died. The rumor making the round have it that Raila Odinga wants to compensate the family by supporting the youthful Eng T.J.Mbewa an engineer working with the Roads Ministry as an engineer.

Insiders have informed us that Raila Odinga is interested in sponsoring one wealthy NGO executive in the name of Phares Ogweno Ratego a resident of Rusinga East Location. On June 19th this year Raila Odinga attended the burial of one Mrs Turphena Agutu Okombo in Kolo village, which is close to the homes of both Ratego and the nominated MP Millie Odhiambo, Before flying out to Ndhiwa where he and President Mwai Kibaki and other government leaders were in attendance during the burial the same day of Mzee Michael Ojode Oteno, the father of the Assistant Minister for Internal Security Joshua Orwa Ojode at Ratang’a Central Kwbwayi in Ndhiwa district.

MIllie Odhiamb is by far the most favorites of the voters in Mbita due to her consistency and enormous and regular contributions in parliament on issues of national importance. She is has yet to made up her mind as to whether should be running for the County women Senate seat or in the Mbita parliamentary seat. Kajwang’ decision to switch position from defending her parliamentary seat to the wide open contest of the County Senate seat is viewed by local political pundits a an act of gross miscalculation and an act which could easily cost him his long an rewarding political career.

The Immigration Minister was among the youthful politicians who had branded themselves as the “Young Turks” who together with other joined hands with the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and vigorously campaign for the re-introduction of political pluralism system, which saw the death of the old KANU monolithic one party system.

He won the Mbita seat during the first multi-party election in 1992, and has repeatedly successfully defended his seat ever since. The Minister, however, had a lackluster performance and poor track record of development, something which could not augur well in his ambition to become the Senate representative of the Homa-Bay County, which is covering eight parliamentary constituencies and perhaps the largest in this region.

He will therefore join the race for the Senate seat with less than 10 per cent support and backing from his home constituency to battle with others in areas unknown to him.

The Homa-Bay County Senate seat covered areas like Gwassi, Mbita, Ndhiwa, Rangwe, Homa-Bay Town, Karachuonyo, Kasipul and Kabondo.His chances of galvanizing votes in Kasipul and Kabondo constituencies is ruled out. This is because it was Otieno Kajwang’ who was used by Raila Odinga and spear-headed the controversial ousting of the influential Ker Meshack Riaga Ogalo, from the mantle and leadership of the moribund Luo Council of Elders from his office. And as such the residents of the two constituencies where Ker Riaga Ogalo has enormous influence will definitely vote against Kajwang’.

He is unknown to the voters in Ndhiwa constituency, and known not to be getting well with the people of Suba origins from both Gwassi and Mbita. He is said to be banking on the support of the residents of Gembe and Lambwe Valley his home turf locations. Gembe area includes Mbita Town, which is has a mixture of residents from the various Luo- sub-clans operating in town as traders and government workers and fishermen.

Kajwang would face much more awkward situation f the Ndhiwa MP Joshuia Orwa Ojode, whoi is an Assistant Minister for Internal Security make up his mind to contest the same Senate seat as it is being rumoured. Ojode would join the race with a solid support and backing of Ndhiwa residents, and area which he has turned into ne of the most vibrant area in terms of socio-economic development. Before Ojode was elected to represent Ndhiwa, the agriculturally rich region was considered as one of the most backward areas in the greater Southern Nyanza region.

Ojode and Kajwang’ are sworn political rivalries ever since the latter was named it full cabinet slot by Raila Odinga during the formation of the grand coalition government and Ojode was relegated to a junior position of the deputy Minister. Ojode had previously served as an Assistant Minister for education during the brief period of KANU/LDP merger under the retired President Daniel Arap Moi. He was re-appointed an Asistant Minister under President Kibaki’s Narc government, but following the out of the 2005 constitutional referendum voting which pitted Kibaki on one side and Raila Odinga on the other side, Kibaki which resulted on the government under the slogan of Banana and Raila’s group Orange symbol, Kibaki kicked out government ministerial positions Raila and his supporters. The President offered Ojode a full cabinet position in the Ministry of Forestry and Wildlife. But the latter turned the appointment down in solidarity with Raila and his colleagues.

Surprisingly when Rail and Kibaki formed the current coalition government of PNU/ODM, Ojode was relegated to the junior position of the deputy Minister. The abrasive Ndhiwa MP took an offence and considered himself as having been short-changed by Raila, who in turn brought to the government Kajwang’ who is a green horn and also Dalmas Otieno who only joined ODM the other days shortly before the 2007 general election. Otieno prior to this was the National Vice chairman of KANU, but ditched KANU in eleventh hours to secure an ODM ticket which enabled him to win Rongo Seat.

After the formation of the coalition government Ojode has stayed away fro all the public functions involving the Prime Minister leading to suspicion and insinuations from other quarters that he had turned out to be a sympathizer of PNU, the accusation which the Assistant Minister has vehemently denied. Unlike the position of the Homa-Bay County governor, the Senate seat has attracted very a handful aspirant. They are the former Kasipula Kabondo MP William Oloo Otula and a Ndhwa politician –cum-business man Hilary Ocheng’ Alila, who is also the ODM coordinator of youths in Nyanza. Alila is a successful businessman operating in both Nairobi and Kampala Cities. His candidature has drawn large support from mainly youths and women. In the case of the governorship position, the bruising battle is expected between the three leading contenders, namely Eng Phillip Okoth Okundi, the immediate former Rangwe MP, Dr. Mark Matunga, the leading computer technologist working with Microsoft International.

Other who have declared their interests in the County governor’s position included the incumbent Rangwe MP Martin Otieno Ogindo, a Mbita businessman Opiata Ogada and others who are considered as” big jokers”.

Rumor, however, persist that Raila Odinga is not comfortable with the people of the Suba origins, and that “Agwambo” is still nursing the old wound of the ideological battle between his father the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and the late charismatic leader and KANU secretary General Tom Mboya that saw Odinga being edged out of KANU and post-independence cabinet of the late founding president Jomo Kenyatta. Many people in this region want Raila Odinga to forget politics of four to five decades ago and work with the people’s choice of leadership in this region for the better A and success of the ODM as the way forward.

An incident which occurred in few months leading to 2007 general election could be a testimony to this claim. Sammy Wakiaga a civil servant and a prominent Nairobi based businessman was heading for a landslide election victory over Otieno Kajwang’ in Mbita constituency on an ODM ticket. But what emerged later was that Raila Odinga had prevailed upon Wakiaga to step down and wait for other job opening up in the event of the ODM forming the government. Wakiagais said to have reluctantly chicken out of the race giving the room for Kajwang’ to retain his seat comfortably. Wakiaga has since then kept a low profile and always steered clear of local political derby.

Kajwan’ who hail from Waondo sub-clan, which is not related to the Suba group is said to have joined the anti- .groups within the ODM and that is why is just about to vacate his parliamentary seat in favor of TJ Mbewa a member of the Karachuonyo sub-clan from Kobuya, but not in genuinely in favor of Ms Millie Odhiambo or Phares Ratego as such hoping that the this strategy will also work against the populist Dr Mark Matunga another Suba from Mfangano Island who is vying for the County Governor position, and who appeared to have already galvanized big support from the two Suba districts, namely Gwassi and Mbita. Major Luo sub-clans who will be voting for Country Senator, governor and other regional representatives ickude, Jo-Gwassi, Jo-Kakisigiri, Jo-Rusinga, Jo-Mfangano, Jo-Kanyidoto, Jo-Kanyikela, Jo-Kwabwayi, Jo-Kanytamwa, Jo-Kabuoch, Jo-Kanyada, Jo-Gemn, Jo-Kagan, Jo-Gongo, Jo-Kochia, Jo-Karachuonyo, Jo-Kasipul and jo-Kabondo.The region covering an area which is close to 140 kilometers in length and about 60 and 70 in width. The area stretches from Sondu-Miriu nd goes up to Mfangno Island and other mall islands scattered Lake Victoria. The region consist of people from diverse background grouped together in eight districts and it would be an up-hill task for anyone who does not control home turf votes to win any of the County positions.

Ends