Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:25:35 

As the situation in Kenya unfolds, many are left wondering what next? What next because no one knows the stand of PNU or ODM. The question that must be asked squarely is, does PNU want a coalition governement with an excutive prime minister? It is this question that needed to be unambigously answered before anyone decides to sit on the table. However, now people are on the table and a different question must be asked. The question to be asked can only be based on PNU’S position and this question must be answered within schedule by none other than ODM. PNU has repeatedly said that they will not bulge on this coalition thing and moreso they will not give an inch on an independent prime minister. Knowing PNU’s position what are ODMs going or prepared to do?  Are ODMs willing to go for non excutive prime minister. God forbid. The day ODM accepts this, even ODM will conclude that ODMers were just interested in positions not the people. Moreso they will not last one year in this position. We will be in for another form of failed MOU.

ODM must answer this question as clearly as possible. They must answer it in away that the world, PNU and the people of Kenya know exactly what they are saying and what the supporters need to do. So far ODM is loosing ground so fast. They have conceded on every premise while PNU has kept moving goal posts and more so moving backwards instead of forward. PNU has used this pereod of negotriation to establish itself as a bonafide governement. It has transfered police officers and the army in order to consolidate power while ODM is begging the world. I hinted PNU’s intention to eliminate some ODM supporters, two MPs have already died and what did ODM do, absolutely nothing. All I saw was the croaking of a frog. No one matched out of the talks even for one day to protest. Arresting ODM representatives, Kibor is already in jail, next time it will be Ruto or Balala. What will ODM do? From the way things are going, I am completely sure that they will do absolutely nothing. This behaviour of ODM is worrying the supporters as it appears that it is an organization which lacks the capacity to protect those who stick their neck out for justice. In simpler terms, it has no teeth.

Kibaki is aware of this game. He has succeeded with this many times. His principle is simple: “Time is the best healer”. It is going to be very very difficult for ODM to bring their supporters on the streets after one year of negotiations simply because someone has not become a prime minister. Kibaki is aware of this and is capitalising on it. He knows that Kenyans will very soon care about feeding their children rather than running amoke in the streets for ODM. ODM must therefore start working on resonating with the supporters rather than putting all its eggs in the basket of the international community. It looks like ODM has begun begging the Kibaki governement while they are the ones to be begged. Kibaki is consolidating power very fast and the negotiations are just a buying time tactics. What ODM must do is to use the same time factor to consolidate its base, military support and financial backing. This is what will make it relevant at the negotiation table. As Mutahi Ngunyi said, Kibaki will only listen to someone with a big stick over his head. The question is should ODM look for this stick from somewhere else. My answer is, like Moses, Raila Odinga has the stick, he just doesn’t realize how miraculous it can be. He should try using it.

One of the sticks he can use is to balkanize the country. This must be understood in perspective. I do not recommend chasing people of specific communities away, but I believe that regionalisation of Kenya is inevitable. Kibaki and a few people around him want to be in power by all means necessary. It is important to let them have their way but in regions where they command a following. Let ODM declare itself a government in areas where they have support. Isolate the regions that beleieve in Kibaki. Let Kibaki rule central and Eastern because those are the only people who believe in him. I think that is democracy. Because in a democartic rule, one cannnot impose himslef on majority. If the majority is not in agreement then Kibaki must let them go. It is upon ODM to force this to happen. My warning is that if ODM fails to act, splinter rebel groups will start comming up. ODM must save the country fast. Have a backbone ODM. Stamp your feet down. State conditions that Kibaki cannot ignore. While negotiations are going on, consolidate, consolidate, consolidate. That is what Kibaki is doing. Can’t you do the same ODM?
 
Barack

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Thank you Barack. It seems that most of what you hoped for was accomplished…

http://www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143982557&cid=4

“In a nutshell, the deal — which will be entrenched in the Constitution — created the post of an executive prime minister, who will supervise ministers and lead Government in Parliament. It also provides for the sharing of Cabinet positions based on the strength of parties in the House.”