News Analysis By Leo Odera Omolo In Rongo Town.
The much highlighted ODM’s grass root election could turn out to be a sham exercise due to poor preparedness, gross interference by sitting MPS and shoddy arrangement.
In some places members of the Provincial Administration were in to taking sides behind the sitting MPS to the chagrins of the party members.
In one particular area, in the South Kamagambo Location, Rongo district in Migori County two chiefs were seen playing the key role in directing the ODM party election. the election which was slated at Kitere Center near Moi University Campos was abruptly changed for Rakwaro.
This happened after most of the members numbering over 400 people have already gathered at Kitere ready to cast their votes.
The announcement for the changes of election venue was made by location Chief Eric Mala and the Assistant Chief for Kanyajuok South sub-location Okoth Nyamanga. The announcement took party members who had gathered at Kitere by surprise. They immediately read a malice, especially when the two chiefs instructed the returning officer to go to Rakwaro instead of Kiterea vebnu which had been announced by he party earlier.
Thy vowed not to move to the new venue at Rakwaro, which is seven kilometer away from Kitere due to lack of transport, and instead they decided to conduct their own parallel election, while those who had already gathered at Kitere also went ahead with their own election.
The two chiefs, according to the local sources were acting on the alleged instruction of the area MP Dalmas Otieno who is also the Minister for Public Services.
On the first day the ODM grass root elections were marred by fighting and disputes over delegates in various sub-branches. This led the dissatisfied groups to conducting parallel election thereby producing two different set of officials.
In some places the elections were marred with sporadic fighting over the mode to be used or delegates failing to agree on the mode. Some delegates preferred queuing, while others wanted the secret ballots to be us, and such disagreement led to the group conducting separate elections parallel to each other.
Similar incidents were reported I Kombok sub-Location in Central Sakwa Location in Awendo district and also in Kanyagwala sub-location in Central Sakwa within the same district.
In Rachuonyo North district a bitter contest was witnessed in Konyango sb-location in Central Karachuonyo where the ODM regional coordinator Tom Dolla ousted the Karachuonyo branch chairman Jack Nduri at the sub-location level, but Nduri later won the election after switching to Jieri sub-location near Kendu-_Bay town. The election locked out many previous holders of sub-branches and branches offices.
Several potential parliamentary .senate and County governor aspirants and some of the sitting MPs closely watched or supervised the elections in their respective location wards.
Prof Larry Gumbe who is one of the leading contenders in the party’s national for the position of the ODM Secretary General was seen busy the whole day supervising the elections in nearly all sub-locations in his home district of North Rachuonyo.
Another aspirant for Migori the Senate seat Ochieng’ Mbeo was elected a delegates in his Waware sub-branch in Sakwa East Location Awendo district within Migori County. He is a former Mathare MP and also an ex-member of the East African Legislative Assembly, the political organ of the East African Community.
Other regions like Siaya ad Ksumu County the election went on smoothly with few cases of fighting or disagreements over the composition of delegates being reported from Nyakach, Muhoroni, Nyando,Gem and Rarieda.
Luo-Nyanza is considered the stronghold of the ODM, a party which is led by Raila Odinga, the Prime Minister who is leading political figure in the next year’s presidential race,
The party is ,however, likely to face an acid test in regions laying in the North and South Rift regions represented in parliament by the rebel MPs who have since ditched the OFM and defected to the UDM.
In order to be able to be relevant in the forthcoming general elections, the ODM must go out flat and shop for stronger and highly respect I Individual to fill the vacant positions left by the rebel MPs in those areas. I the North Rift, the Eldoret North MP Wiliam Ruto has been the ODM Deputy party leader, while the Ainamoi MP Benjamin Lang’at was the deputy national organizing secretary/Another important political figure in the ODM is its national chairman Henry Kosgey, the MP for Tinderet in Nandi South district. Kosgey has yet to make his position clear whether he would be defending his position of chairmanship or not, while Ruto and Lang’at have declared that they would not contest any position in ODM lection and have therefore distanced themselves from the party activities.
The ODM must shop for the credible and highly respected individuals in the South Rift, where the most populous Kipsigis sub-tribe of the larger Kalenjin ethnic groups lives.
The vote rich region with close to 1.3 million registered voters is crucial to the ODM and Raila Odinga’s presidential ambition in 2012. This is an area which has been incessantly bombarded by William Ruto and those allied to him and the UDM. But the two parties, the ODM and UDM are still sharing equal strength in parliamentary representation.
ODM MPS who are still maintained unswerving loyalty to the party and Raila Odinga are four namely Franklin Bett {Buret} Dr Joyce Laboso [Sotik} Magerer Lang’at {Kipkellion} and Mrs Beatrice Knes {Bomet}.
The four other legislators who have joined Ruto’s UDM camp, include Charles Keter {Belgut}, Dr Julius Kones {Konoin}, Isaac Ruto {Chepalungu} and Benjamin Lang’at {Ainamoi}.
So far Isaac Ruto of Chepalungu and Charles Keter of Belgut have announced that they will not defend their parliamentary seats, but would contest the County governorship in both Bomet and Kericho Counties.
Reports emerging on the ground says Ruto and his team of ODM rebel MPs have been criss-crossing the region while polarizing the population with multiple accusations against Raila Odinga’s leadership, but the population appeared divided between those still supporting ODM and those who disapproved Ruto alliances with the Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.
The locals believes that by forming an alliance with Kenyatta, Ruto is likely to play the second or third fiddle in the G7an event which will return the power to the Central Province or to The Mt Kenya region. On the ODM, the Kipsigis community one to see want of their own sons and daughter elevated to to the position of seniority to the party hierarchy, perhaps that of the Deputy leader and eventually the running-mate of Raila in the next presidential race. If this happens, Ruto will be quite irrelevant in the region.
The man the community has tipped to be promoted to a position of seniority in the ODM is the Road Minister and Buret MP Franklin Bett. The Minister has remained steadfastly in ODM and is one of the party’s torch bearers in the region.
The previous land clashes of the 1992/1993, and that of 1986/1997 and finally the bloody clashes of 2007/2008 do not augur well for Uhuru Kenyatta in the South Rift region. These intermittent tribal skirmishes have left permanent scar on the Kikuyu-Kipsigis intra communal relations. It would be an up-hill task to sell Uhuru Kenyatta among he Kipsigis voters however good is the the Gatundu South MP is.
If the ongoing ODM elections could produce credible and energetic leaders in the Kipsigis dominated region, thn Raila has nothing to fear of losing the Kalenjin votes in this tea land rich region.
The political clout an enormous influence of the retired President Daniel Arap Moi and KANU party in the Kipsigis region cannot be easily fizzled out, therefore the ODM and Raila Odinga in particular need to cultivate good working relations with the self proclaimed professor of Kenya’s politics and he must also built a working rapport with Moi and his allies in order to circumvent Ruto’s populist onslaught in this region.
In Kisii region, things look rather bright for the ODM and promising despite the concerted effort by he former ODM National Treasurer Omingo Magara to discredit Raila in the Gusii dominated regions in the Counties of Nyamira and Kisii.The party is still capable of neutralizing sporadic and skeleton opposition to its activities. Magara and Prof.Sam Ongeri are considered by the Abagusii people as spent forces, and the on going party grass root election is expected to produce the new set of youthful leaders in the region.
In the North Rift the ODM is still enjoying the support of the nominated MP Musa Sirma who is the Minister for the East African Community Affairs, The Minister fr Higher Education Prof.Margaret kamar, and the Minister for Agriculture Dr,Sally Ksgey while the undecided and suspended Minister for Industrialization Henry Kosgey is still sitting on the fence.
Both Kosgey, William Ruto like Uhuru Kenyatta are still having the tug of ICC cases n their neck and this Ha put their future political leadership in their community temporarily of the balance,.
In Western those dismissing Musalia Mudavadi, the second deputy party leader as being weak are doing so for their own peril. The Sabatia MP is a very strong leader. He is reliable, dependable and dynamic. But the conflict of ethnic interests is what is betraying him. He hails from the Maragoli sub-tribe of the larger Abaluhya ethnic group, but a community which does not rime will with other Luhyias sub-tribes owing to its enormous economic clout in Western Province and excellent academic achievements.
This has contributed largely to some of its sons and daughters displaying excessive arrogance towards other people from other Luhyia communities.
Unlike their Luo neighbors Luhya community comprises a collection the umbrella of one uniformed political leadership. WVEN Eugen Wamalwa, the Saboti MP who is allegedly getting both morale boosting and financial backing of Ugandan head of state Yoweri Museveni and G7 Alliance cannot succeed in having Luhiya community united under one political party. In fact many Luhyias view Wamalwa as a big political joke.
The ODM grass political turn-coats likes of Wamalwa and Jirongoprinting its authority in the region in the same fashion as what had happened in the 2007 general elections.
Ends