News Analysis By Ndira Uradi In Kisumu City

The Orange Democratic Movement {ODM} faces rebellion and most massive walkout ever witnessed since its inception following the just concluded, but poorly and much flawed grass root elections.

It turned out to be selection rather than election and the exercises which were marred by violence and manipulation of the highest order.

What emerged in what should have been free and fair election meant to solidify the party’s position so that it could face the impending general election now only months as a united team was haphazardly conducted.

These elections were full of intrigues, shameless rigging and manipulation of the highest degree. And the culprits were heavily moneyed former and sitting MPs from the region.

They were hell-bent to ensure that only their political surrogates and hirelings secured positions in the branches and in the Counties through hook and crooks, even those were locked out at the sub-locations levels.

It was only a handful of MPs who did not actively participated in the exercise. They included Dr. Oburu Oginga {Bondo} Joshua Orwa Ojode {Ndhiwa}.Prof Patrick Ayiecho Olueny {Muhoroni} Of course they could have participated in the exercise through their proxies, but credits should be given for those who deserves it.

The exercise, however, left the ODM in worse position than cementing its unity of purpose with which the party would use as the ladder in facing its combined forces of rival parties in the next year’s presidential, parliamentary, senate and civic elections.

It is now the turn of the party leader Raila Odinga to move much faster and cool down the high political temperatures the much flawed elections which were conducted in hasty and without proper planning and arrangements.

There were evident of lack of preparedness, inadequate election materials and logistics. And also lack of proper training for the coordinators, supervisors and returning officers as well as clerks. But the worse of it was lack disciplined on the part of party youths, who appeared to be only aligned to individuals rather than to the party and its manifesto, rules and laid down system.

The party youth became the real menace that they snatched election material and took to their heels whenever they sensed their favored man was losing the election, in some places they beat up election officials senselessly and snatched the election materials and shamelessly fled with them.

The ODM elections, according opinion sharper’s in Luo-Nyanza could adversely affect the voting pattern In the region where h Luo political kingpin Raila Odinga has always enjoyed nearly man-to-man support in the past elections. Many issues have since emerged which could pose serious to Mr Odinga’s popularity in the greater Southern Nyanza after the rumor went around that the Odinga were not comfortable with the candidature of the Mumias CEO Dr Evans Kidero who has declared his interest to contest the lucrative position of Nairobi County governor.

Dr Kidero is a highly valued individual personality from the greater Southern Nyanza region due to his credentials as far as developments of public institutions in the region are concerned. He has selflessly contributed immensely toward the support of socio-economic of the people in Southern Nyanza. Unless corrected this kind of rumor could work against Raila’s presidential ambition.

The rent ODM elections have also rekindled other issues such as the recent attempt to kick out the chairman of the Luo Council of Elders an action which is suspected to have been instigated by some of the disgruntled MPs who felt “Ker” Meshack Riaga Ogalo had grown horns. He was however reinstated to his position by a High Court Judge, but is position is not recognized by Raila and his troop solders in the names of the current crops of MPs fro the region.

Ker Riaga Ogalo, however is enjoying considerable support and sympathy of many people in the region. So far Raila ha never uttered anything in regards to Dr.Kidero’s candidature, but judging the utterances of those close to him and reaction of the ODM headquarters’ insistence that there must be a repeat of elections in the entire Nairobi County is pointing an innuendo that the party leadership may be not happy that Dr.Kidero and his allies had swept the board clean winning all key posts during the grass root election exercise in Nairobi City.

Another issue which is likely to tear ODM apart in Luo-Nyanza is the common branding of those who are viewed as potential opponents the sitting MP in the year 2012 election as “Agents of either Ruto or PNU moles” In fact some people were even block and denied accesses to the election venues in many parts of Luo Nyanza after being tagged as despite having won the elections in their localities.

The hostility being exercise in and out of Parliament by the so-called Raila inner cabinet against the abrasive Ndhiwa MP Joshua Orwa Ojode are some of the issues which are likely to cause sectarian backlash. The MPs who included John Olago Aluoch {Kisumu Town West} Nominated MP Millie Odhiambo, Gwassi MP John Mbadi,Rarieda MP Eng Nicholas Gumbo, Nyando MP Fred Outa always jumps up on their feet asking nasty supplementary and sycophantic question whenever Ojode who is an Assistant Minister for Internal Security is answering MPs question during question times is a clear indications how divided is the ODM house, a weak point which the party’s rivals could easily use to dismantle the much touted and invisible unity of the Luos.

Raila’s so called the correct lieutenants have been herd accusing Ojode of being not working for the ODM but for other parties, forgetting the fact that the outspoken Ndhiwa MP for many years was the uncompressed defender of Raila in all important local and national issues. But the Assistant decided to steer clear of Raila’s inner camp after he was humiliated by Raila’s elder brother Dr Oburu Oginga who sprung up and from the blue moon sprung up unleashed scathing criticism of Ojode without the slightest provocation. The attack shocked the huge crowd of mourner in West Karachuonyo and has since remained the endless talk of the region.

Rebuking, bashing and scolding publicly a man of Ojode’s caliber has never been accepted lightly by the residents of Southern Nyanza who have also been quietly voicing concern about the way an the manner in which senior government appointments in the coalition government which came Raila’s way and which were dished out only to his relatives and family friends leaving the vote rich Southern Nyanza region with nothing are some the obstacles, which” Agwambo” must labor so hard to clear in the minds of the residents o Southern Nyanza.

Other issue which the ODM’s bigwigs have failed to observe is the question of political patronage, similar to those exhibited by KANU during heyday in power. The idea of electing people into party offices by acclamation or by consensus is primitive and mockery to democracy instead of secret ballots. If secret ballots system was used in the just conclude party grass root elections, nobody cold be in a position to entertain complaints because such complaint would be invalid. But in both Migori and Homa-bay Counties the election were carried out by consensus way which is undemocratic. The same happed in some parts of Nairobi, Nakuru an elsewhere.

Nyakach is on of the constituencies within Kisumu County where the moneyed former MPs did everything to scuttle the ODM elections. They were Ojwang’K’ombudo the former Minister for Water Development, his successor in 2002 general election Peter Odoyo who also had served an Assistant minister for Foreign Affairs and a reported confidant of the Prime Minister Raila Odinga and the incumbent MP Polyins Ochieng’ Daima.

The trio and a former Gor Mahia F.C. Secretary Eng Evans Kodera frustrated the genuine winners of party grassroots at sub location levels when they tried to shortchange the winners an replaces them with their cronies during the Kisumu County branch elections and even at the district level which a held at Ahero Multipurpose Center.

ODM leaders ought to have been aware that other rival parties were closely watching and waiting eagerly to reap fro the fallout. I am told that a good number of those who lost the party elections unfairly or through manipulations by MPs have already started shopping alternatives parties whose tickets they will use to propel them to Parliament com, the year 2012.

The last week elections have degenerate a lot of “fitinas” in Luo-Nyanza than in any other parts o Kenya. This is because the party leader Raila Odinga hails from the region.

The urge for the resident of Southern Nyanza region to form a party of their own, which could be affiliated to other parties outside the ODM has been gaining the momentous with disgruntled politicians from the region being on the war-path ready to fight Raila and his bands loyalists .In an unlikely event of this political scenario happens, Raila would therefore look like someone who is stabbed at the back in hi home backyard.

Again the pr-Raila Luo MPs have been heard shouting about at the funeral gathering about the insignificance Rafael Tuju’s stab at the presidency. But they must be underrating Tuju t their own peril, because the former Rarieda MP is evidently gaining grounds and as such could pose serious threat to Raila’s presidential ambition by slashing considerable size of votes in Lu-Nyanza The likely chances of having another Luo presidential aspirant from the Southern Nyanza also cannot be ruled out.

Ends