THE DISCOVERY OF OIL IN UGANDA AND THE EXPECTED WEALTH FROM ITS REVENUE IS LIKELY TO SPARK OFF ETHNIC FEUDS AND INSTABILITY

News Analysis By Leo Odera Omolo, Recently in Kampala.

As it has happened elsewhere in Africa and the world, the new discovery of oil wealth has always been accompanied by myriads of problems such as ethnic strife and confrontation between the ruling elite and their citizens.

Uganda, an East African nation, which has struck oil in the recent past is no exception. Such a problem is simmering in the country, and the expected erruption could find the government napping.

Already the political temperatures are rising in the Bunyoro Kingdom, and the prediction by observers is that the region could be swamped by a wave of treasure hunters, sparking off tribal armed conflict, that altimately brings on the very resource “curse” that the ruling NRM government has worked hard to avoid since the discovering the oil deposits a few years ago..

These fears, according to newspaper reports, are not far-fetched. The fact that Bunyoro, until now one of the most stable areas of the country, is suddenly enveloped in tension, immediately raises questions of what instability in Uganda’s oil-rich region means for production, with the start of drilling now in sight..

The oil revenues will soon start flowing in –further stoking tension over its sharing.

Reports says the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development had came up with a National Oil and Gas Policy in 2007, to cushion the country from going the way of Nigeria’s Niger Delta in West Africa, and other countries, that have struck oil, but failed to manage the resource.

There are genuine concerns ,which must be adequately addressed now, whether Bunyoro can survive the current quarrel between the Banyoro people and Bakiga “immigrants” and remain stable, or whether Uganda will fall prey to the “curse of oil”.

“Who says Bunyoro has ever been stable? This situation has been hibernating and now that it is out in the open, it is potentially explosive unless resolved. Of course, oil production will be affected”, said Stephen Baraahwa Mukitale, MP for Balisa County. Balisa is one of four administrative districts that, along with Masindi, Hoima and Kabaale, form the oil-rich Bunyoro Kingdom.

The oil in Bunyoro and in Amaru district of northern Uganda give the country the capacity to produce up to 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day for 25 years, according to the feasibility studies.

The situation in Bunyoro is increasingly getting fragile. For weeks now, Bunyoro has adopted an unyielding stand against the “immigrant” communities settled in the Kingdom , mainly Bakiga, who are being accused of politically domineering, or at least showing a tendency to become so, according to the Uganda’s Internal Security Minister Matia Kasaija, who himself hails from the Bunyoro Kingdom..

It all started when the DAILY MONITOR, published a controversial letter penned by president Yoweri Museveni ,directing the “ring fencing” of certain political offices in Bunyoro, and blocking immigrant Bakiga from contesting political offices for the next 20 years.

The thrust of President Museveni’s letter is to correct the “historical imbalances” Bunyoro has suffered since 1893, when the then colonial power, Great Britain overrun the Kingdom, depopulated it and deported its then king, the Kabalega. The colonialists also gave chunks of land to their collaborators from Buganda Kingdom, who had helped in crushing Kabalega’s rebellion.

But few of the Bagandas who benefited from this land redistribution ever settled in Bunyoro, creating a class of ”absentia land-lords”, while other immigrants began to settle in a depopulated Bunyoro from 1930s onwards, resulting in changes in the pattern of land ownership, settlement, population and now the latest politics of Bunyoro.

But Buyaga County legislator was last week quoted by the EASTAFRICAN as saying that the Bakiga are not ready to cede ground, a situation that may foment instability in the oil-rich fields.

Baranabus Tinkamanyire, an immigrant himself, expect the indignant Banyoro not to take his remarks kindly.

The government, however, maintain that those are not grounds enough to fear the worst. In an interview with the EASTAFRICAN, the influential Nairobi weekly, the Minister Kasaija said that the clashes in Bunyoro are little more than an exaggerated war of words, which cannot destabilize oil production. ”What instability? There is, and will be a War of words yes, but not a war of shooting”, the Minister said.

Ends
leooderaomolo@yahoo.com

– – –
From: Leo Odera Omolo
Date: Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:31 AM
Subject: The newly found oil revenue poised to destabilize Bunyoro kingdom in western Uganda