from Joram Ragem
Dear ODM members,
It is time I ask you to look at things the unusual way. We are in the new constitution era, but most importantly we are in the post ICC defining moment. This is a different Kenya. We all knew it will be different. But I guess, we never imagined how different. Remember, whoever loses this presidential elections is out of the next government absolutely.
There are two scenarios which are both not good for ODM.
The first scenario is a ‘wag the dog’ technique that ODM might have used. Though with bad notoriety, the Ekaterina 4 have been stealing the thunder from ODM and in particular Raila. They have seen their poll numbers begin to steady and rise albeit falsely and Raila’s drop gradually. To stop this trend, it is possible that ODM has ochestrated this ‘Mudavadi vs Raila’ competition to steal the headlines. This strategy could work, but it is like playing with fire. Whereas it will attract Raila opponents to pour money on Mudavadi, like the biblical Adam, Mudavadi could fall prey, it could make Mudavadi believe he is stronger than Raila. in real time, this might have already already happened. The split is already there because were are seeing it and talking about it. Mother always said not to play with fire.
The second scenario is even worse. Remember what Mutahi Ngunyi said? “A wounded Uhuru or Ruto are dangerous politicians.” Well, it is obvious that there is overt motive in the two seeing ODM or Raila prevented from even running for presidency. In real time, with real money, this is their work.
Here is the good news. Agwambo wuod Alego, owad gi Akinyi will prevail. Here is how:
My prediction is that ODM will not have elections at all. There will be infiltration by the URP rebels who will troop back in pretex of supporting Mudavadi but their real intention is to destroy ODM. They will rightly be denied the opportunity to vote, but they will go to court and the court will issue an injunction barring ODM from holding nominations. So ODM will be caught in the mess of waiting for decision by judges, like it is already happening with election date, and whether Uhuru and Ruto should be on the ballot. This is their scheme. This I predict will happen.
So my 10th great grandfather Ragem, and not I says thus, Raila as the favorite presidential candidate must be prepared to run as an independent, notwithstanding being branded a party breaker or hopper.
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I am Joram Ragem
You are not.
Yes, Joram Kaulikazi Ragem, wuod Ndinya, wuod Onam, wuod Amolo, wuod Owuoth, wuod Oganyo, wuod Mumbe, wuod Odongo, wuod Olwande, wuod Adhaya, wuod Ojuodhi, wuod Ragem (You may be my relative, but it matters less now. This is New Kenya!)
Raila himself have dared the squirals to accept facing him on the ballot the problem is in a clean game& its here that Mudavadi got the wrong answer to the first to fight Raila and he stand a nockout because he refused to tell ODM What is wrong with Raila who led the party to a victory 2007???
My advice to odm supporters is let mudavadi face raila, for one we should not only bank our hope on one since it is not a presidency for raila but for odm and like minded or rather reformists.The reason is for one mudavadi has demonstrated that he is part and parcel of odm by not being shaken despite all his friends and former fellow collages from former regime of nyayo coming to unite only to break away with the unknown motives (could selfish or they are not ready for change that odm is aver preaching).this could mean that he is capable even if raila is not on the ballot paper. so we could be in a position of having a substitute were a there is a need.People have talked of other hands in his campaigns.this might prove positive to him and also to odm as a whole since for one they may think of him being a weak candidate but due the force behind him, that is his and raila plus those who will be undecided because of the confusion the forces created,odm may benefit. second at one point if raila defeat him democracy would have prevailed and the consequences will be that point where some people shall have seen the direction devoid of ethnicity. And that still will benefit the two plus odm fraternity.
We really must be a people who fear competition just like our local political leadership who rather than campaign based on deeds and vision always invoke the name of Raila to prove loyalty and gain blind support and sympathy from voters, and this has become a practice in Luoland and reason development and representation of local interests are never a concern for serving leaderships because they are never elected for a purpose.
Just watch Parliament whose sittings are to resume this week and you will appreciate why matters of local interests and those of development are never addressed because our leaders are always too proud, shy and complacent to question, propose and demand local interests and have them addressed once and for all.
It is up to candidates wishing to contest to prove their worth, sell their policies and seek support from voters and not sympathy, create fears and vilify or use their supporters to vilify rivals for effortless victory. That is not democracy but dictatorship.
Fanatical followers!!
The competition being witnessed in ODM party is healthy. It has seen the party steal media publicity from other competing parties. However, my and other party loyalists fears is that the pedestal Mudavadi has been propelled to since he started campaigns and more so the infiltration into ODM affairs by perceived Raila enemies who appear to goard him to even ditch the party may injure the party’s match to state house. Even the party deserters who have been agonising on the Raila’s seemingly match to state house have literaly come back to organize for the downfall of ODM party. My unsolicited support to ODM top brass is therefore to have the party elect its presidential flag bearer in early March so that in case of a spilt, RAO, being a well known political masterschemer may have time to assemble his team for a potential assault in the race for the presidency.
Let people be realist and allow the ODM flourish, it is the Party of the people now in Kenya. Democracy should be allowed to take its course whether money is poured or not. ODM is not for Raila alone and Raila is in record supporting democracy.
ODM should have plan ‘B’, let Raila remain the ‘PP-Party’ Patron and relinguish leadership to Mudavadi whom he(Raila) has been mentoring.
Mudavadi leadership will not bring any demorcray in kenya. He is a child of stata quo. He wll bring no positive change, in the same way ,he failed to help the country
during Goldenberg which brought poverty in the country up todate.
He was never born a politician who can ready suffer for kenya just his father who was brought about to politics by his long time friend ,Moi. Senior Mudavadi was brought into help moi get total support of LUYAH but only dishing fruits to Maragolis.