Commentary By Leo Oder Omolo

So they say; the history is just about to repeat itself as we Kenyans as the deputy leader of the ODM Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi wobbles around and is just about to quit the party that had rescued him from political oblivion four and half years ago

He should therefore tread carefully while swimming in the murky waters of the intriguing Kenya’s politics, He is more safe and had a promising political flute in ODM than in other political movement.

Few months to the year 2002 general elections, the retire President Daniel Arap Moi stunned and shocked everyone when he announced that he had anointed Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta as his successor at the presidency and the KANU torchbearer.

Moi did this to the chagrins of many senior cabinet members and KANU politicians who felt Kenyatta was still a political novice. Those who felt short-changed strongly protested against the move. This was followed soon by mass resignation of close to half the cabinet members who included KANU stalwarts who had remained steadfastly in the party for many years.

Led by the then Energy Minister Raila Odinga whose LDP party had merged with KANU in a short lived KANU-LDP amorphous coalition government and other long serving ministers who included KANU stalwarts like William Ole Ntimama, Simeon Nyachae,Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, Chris Okemo, Moody Awori, Dr Paul Adhu-Awiti and others.

Those who bolted out of the KANU regime joined hands with the official opposition leader in parliament Mwai Kibaki of DP, Michael Kijana Wamalwa of Ford Kenya and Charity Ngilu’s National Alliance of Kenya and formed the National Rainbow Alliance Coalition {NARC} which became a thorn in Moi’s flesh and hounded him out of power bringing to an abrupt end of the KANU rule which had spanned for close to 40 years.

Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi was then a senior cabinet Minister in the Moi’s last regime serving as the Finance Minister. He briefly joined the protesting group and had resigned his cabinet post. However, the son of Moi’s long time friend and brother in-law the late Moses S.Budamba Mudavadi {the King of Mululu} soon developed cold feet, and rescinded his resignation. He rejoined President Moi’s cabinet.

Moi in turn rewarded him adequately elevated him by appointing him to the plum position of the Vice Presidency of the Republic making his principal deputy. He went down in the annals of history a Kenya’s fourth Vice President who had served for the shortest period of time. Virtually less than six months.

In December 2002, Mudavadi meteoric rise was brought to abrupt end. He did not only lose his number two slot, but also lost his hitherto one the safest Sabatia parliamentary seat, which he had inherited from his late father Moses for many years ever since wrestling it from he former holder Peter Kibisu in the late 1960s. He was swept I t

If at all Mudavadi had not learn political lesson following the events of December2002, then it is my sincere and passionate appeal to him that he should stick and remain steadfastly in ODM and continue working with Raila Odinga in any capacity. This is the party where his feature is looking bright.

It is imperative to remind the Sabatia MP that the war of attrition that has raged on between Raila Odinga and William Ruto had came about as the result of the latter’s continuous protection and defense of Mudavadi to remain his principal deputy whereas Ruto an his allies felt shot-changed. The Ruto’s allies felt they had the numbers and therefore he should have been the one to occupy the number two slot in the party hierarchy.

The pro-Ruto group argues that Mudavadi had no significant following in his Western Province home turf. This is a fact, taking into account that Mudavadi hail from the minority Maragoli, a Luhyia concocted sub-clan which is said not to get along well with other Luhyia sub-clans, particularly the dominant Bukhusuand Tachoni of Bungoma the Isukha and Ikolomani of Kakamega, Bunyore of Vihiga,Samia and Bunyala of Busia, Bukhayo, Marachi and the Teso tribe of Busia, Wanga, Khisa of Mumias and all other smaller sub-clans.

It will be indeed an uphill task for Mudavadi to garner the votes in all these mixture of sub-tribes with different cultural background. Political history of Western Province is quite different fro that of Luo-Nanza where the community is absolute and unanimous behind “Agwambo”. Even in some of the Luhyia sub-tribes with the Luo backgrounds do support the Prime Minister” Raila Odinga in his lust for the presidency than they can support Mudavadi.

In this context, it is my contention that Mudavadi should stay put and steadfastly remain in ODM where he is much safe and has a promising future in politics than wavering about jumping from one political party of the other. I have a lot of respect for the Sabatia MP whom I admired his moderate approach to contentious issues, his calmness and political magnanimity and as such, I am therefore appealing to him not to leave he ODM.

He has been in that party for too long and knew pretty well its laid down nomination rules and regulation therefore demanding that they be changed at the last minutes in an after thought, and this move cannot not convince anybody. But his latest move could only give the credence and support to the allegation that the DPM is acting at the behest of external, but invisible forces out to scuttle the ODM chances of winning the next polls.

The other smaller sub-clans within Kakamega and Vihiga Counties also don’t get along well with the Maragolis. These sub-clans are known to be suspicious of the Maragolis accusing them of graft and for having used their economic superiority and advanced in modern education to grab all the key economic positions in the region.

The accusation being made against the Maragolis include the alleged grabbing of all the important key business plots in Kakamega Town, other nearby trading centers and market places. And as such the Sabatia can only count on the genuine support and backing of two MPs from neighboring constituencies with the majority of Maragoli voters. These are Hon George Khaniri of Hamisi, and Yusuf Chanzu of Vihiga and not beyond this.

His political enemies knew very well how he is standing in an awkward position as far as the composition of the voting pattern by the communities in Western Province are concern and apparently only interested in having him sacrificed.

As soon as Mudavadi ditches ODM, the voice now calling on him to abandon ODM party land promising him of a block voting in Western Province, like those of Khalwale, Shitanda, Jirongo will evaporate and melt away not to be heard again. And Musalia chances of winning the presidency and step in into State House would be doomed to fail. I am sure for certain that his handlers and financiers are all aware of all these political scenarios.

If Muadavadi takes the risk and gambles on his political future, he will have nobody to blame for his downfall, but his own lifestyle of inconsistency, lack of foresight and opening up for the masters of political deceits to misguide him. So they say, twice beaten, twice shy. He was once beaten in 2002 and sent to political limbo for five good years, and praying that nobody misguides this son of my great friend once again for the second time.

I am glad that Raila Odinga and other ODM leaders have made it clear that that plans were a foot to have the ODM nomination system changed even after having its constitution registered with the registrar of political parties. He should be patient.

Ends