From: Ouko joachim omolo
Voices of Justice for Peace
Regional News

BY FR JOACHIM OMOLO OUKO, AJ
NAIROBI-KENYA
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2012

Nairobi wire com this week received an email message from a supposed staff member at Ipsos Synovate, who alleges that some top managers have been receiving money from a leading presidential candidate, to doctor opinion polls.

According to the information opinion polls are doctored in a realistic manner, not arousing clear discrepancies and in a realistic way. Apparently, the candidate is made to gain considerable ground slow but sure, despite the situation on the ground being different.

In a recent opinion poll released by Ipsos Synovate support for Uhuru Kenyatta as president had jumped to 30 per cent from 23 per cent in July. Uhuru is now just behind Raila who has 36 per cent.

According to the result, Uhuru would comfortably beat Raila in a second round run-off vote, as would Mudavadi. Uhuru’s support has been growing steadily for the last two years.

If elections were to be held October last year, Prime Minister Raila Odinga would be the most popular presidential candidate with 34 per cent of Kenyans indicating that they would vote for him, while Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta would only get 24 per cent of Kenyans votes.

William Ruto would garner 10 per cent of the vote, Kalonzo Musyoka 9 per cent, Martha Karua 5 per cent, Eugene wamalwa 2 percent. Other presidential aspirants such Peter Kenneth, Raphael Tuju and others would garner less than 2 per cent of votes.

According to the new constitution you can’t win unless you get 50 plus of the votes in the first round. Because Raila got only 36 percent in the first round there will have to be a runoff. And according to the poll, if there is a runoff, Uhuru Kenyatta will win with majority votes.

This is because supporters of other presidential candidates, especially from his Central Kenya, Eastern, North Eastern, Nairobi, Western, and Rift Valley respectively. This is according to Synovate results because they prefer Uhuru than Raila.

Last year PNU complained that Raila had bribed the Synovate to show that Uhuru was slugging behind-this time PNU reloaded TNA has not complained. It can give the hint why the allegations of bribery are not very far from the truth this time round.

Even though Deputy Prime Minister, Muslia Mudavadi has no backing from his own constituency, he would defeat Raila if they went for re-run. The impression is to demonstrate to Kenyans that there would be no need to waste the votes on a candidate who won’t make it to presidency.

Another impression is that without Mudavadi Raila would barely make it to 20 percent since Luhya’s are the 2nd most populous ethnic group in the country, just like Kikuyu to Uhuru. Without these two communities Raila won’t make it to State House.

Although Vice President, Kalonzo Musyoka got 800,000 in 2007, while Raila got 700,000 votes purely made up of Luo votes in 1997, Raila according to the Synovate result would defeat Kalonzo because he is not popular among Kenyans.

Uhuru will defeat Raila in re-run considering that he will get William Ruto’s 10 percent supporters, Kalonzo’s 9 percent, Eugene 2 percent, Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua’s supporters, Ole Kiapi, few from Ali Mwakwere’s Coast contribution and Aden’s North-Eastern contribution among others. Raila numbers in central is only 1 percent, 2 percent in Eastern and 5 percent in Rift Valley.

Raila cannot score higher votes in Rift Valley because of Ruto whose Kalenjin base constitutes are the majority voters. In the last elections Raila received 2 percent in Central and 5 percent in Eastern.

The other curious thing Kenyans are challenging Synovate of is why it is deliberately avoided asking Kenyans how they would vote if two of the presidential contenders were locked at The Hague.

To be fair, Synovate was expected to ask Kenyans who would they vote for once ICC trials began? Against the background that Synivate results look suspicious. It is why it is believed that Synovate and all researchers are paid by those who they project to be leading.

Synovate suspicion emerged recently when President Kibaki’s Party of National Unity planned to control opinion polls. A team of PNU lawyers working with MPs Jamleck Kamau (Kigumo) and John Muthutho (Naivasha) were drafting a Bill to control opinion polls conducted by research companies and even media houses.

Kamau filed a party motion in Parliament calling for regulation of opinion polls. The Bill would create an Opinion Polls Control Board to regulate the conduct of surveys. One clause under consideration is a requirement that the Board approves all questionnaires in advance and authorise results of surveys before they are released to the public.

The proposed Bill came shortly when in April Synovate said that Prime Minister Raila Odinga was the preferred 2012 candidate was for 38 percent of Kenyans; Uhuru 18 percent, Kalonzo 13 percent and Ruto 8 percent.

PNU politicians, including Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, have been criticising political opinion polls in recent months. Kalonzo accused research companies, especially the market leader Synovate, of doctoring opinion polls in favour of Prime Minister Raila Odinga. The argument was that there was no way Raila could beat Uhuru that much.

Fr Joachim Omolo Ouko, AJ
People for Peace in Africa
Tel +254-7350-14559/+254-722-623-578
E-mail omolo.ouko@gmail.com

Peaceful world is the greatest heritage
That this generation can give to the generations
To come- All of us have a role.