From: Ouko joachim omolo
Voices of Justice for Peace
Regional News
BY FR JOACHIM OMOLO OUKO, AJ
NAIROBI-KENYA
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2012
Home Affairs Assistant minister and Bomet Member of Parliament Beatrice Kones is no longer one of the closes allies of Prime Minister Raila Odinga in Rift Valley. She has ditched the Orange Democrtatic Movement (ODM) for Eldoret North MP William Ruto’s United Republican Party (URP).
Remarks by Ruto while receiving Kones on Wednesday that she had joined the winning team could be interpreted that for the Kalenjin MPs in Rift Valley to be re-elected they must ditch Raila and his party. According to Ruto URP is the party to watch and (Ms) Kones is the last born in terms of joining us. Anyone who is not in URP is not on the winning team”.
Last month Sotik MP Joyce Laboso also ditched ODM expressing her dissatisfaction with the party. Dr Laboso, who was a key member of ODM Reloaded Team, said she was joining the Eldoret North William Ruto’s party United Republican Party (URP) saying ODM is no longer a national party and its leadership is questionable.
Politics she said is a matter of mind games; saying one thing when it suits you and denying it when it doesn’t. It’s however quite bad when the evidence is dropped right in front of you that you are lying.
The fact that Ruto has somewhat managed to convince his Kalenjin supporters that Riala is the one who has taken him to The Hague’, it means Raila is to expect other Kalenjin MPs to ditch him.
Efforts by Raila to convince Ruto to come back to ODM have been fruitless according to media reports. His reported secret meeting with Ruto on Tuesday night has been the main story few weeks ago.
The two are reportedly met at the home of businessman Joshua Kulei who is said to be leading efforts to re-unite the two, even though both Raila and Ruto have not admitted that they indeed met, with Ruto actually denying it.
It was reported that Raila offered Ruto the VP position and half the cabinet positions. Ruto is said to have refused to promise any support before the election, insisting that any deal had to be done after the first round of voting. He however promised to consider Raila’s offer.
This is the same Joshua Kulei who together with Ruto were in April 2011 acquitted of defrauding the Kenya Pipeline Company out of Sh272 million in a land purchase deal. The state claimed that Ruto fraudulently obtained Sh96 million from the KPC in 2001 claiming that he was in a position to sell 1.745 hectares of land belonging to the Ministry of Natural Resources situated in Ngong Forest.
Ruto is competing for a presidential ticket with wealthy Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, whose riches were recently estimated by Forbes at $500 million (Sh45 billion).
According to a weekly paper, truth newspaper, Raila drove himself to the venue in a pajama. It further says that the prime minister was accompanied by only one of his bodyguards and his car had no flag.
Although Ruto whose Amaco Insurance is one of Kenya’s most popular insurance companies is determined to run for President, Kofi Annan, the African Union envoy who mediated the 2008 peace deal, if an ICC suspect assumes the presidency in the next election, the consequences for Kenya could be disastrous politically and economically.
They argue that Kenya could be labelled a pariah state by the international community. This will mean that donors will withdraw their moral and financial support to Kenya. Donor-funded long- and medium-term plans and projects, such as Vision 2030, will be shelved. Poverty levels will rise. Economic growth rates will decline. Kenya will not attain middle income status by 2030.
Western nations may impose a trade embargo on Kenya. The African Union, which backed the peace process, may press upon its members to impose sanctions on Kenya. Kenya’s coveted membership in the East African Community might also be threatened.
Domestic revenues may see Kenya through, but without trading partners, revenue from exports will fall, leading to further hardships. Just ask the Cubans what the 50-year US trade embargo has done to their economy and you will see why this scenario is not desirable.
The United Nations may pull out of Kenya and set up base in a neighbouring country, thereby severely affecting the local economy. Revenue gained from UN conferences, contracts and projects will disappear. If the UN leaves, Kenya will lose millions of dollars that pass through the country’s banks. Nairobi’s housing and retail markets that cater for UN staff will collapse.
Like Zimbabweans under Robert Mugabe, Kenyans will start seeking refuge and jobs in neighbouring countries. Kenya will be viewed as a failed state like Somalia, generating the large numbers of refugees and IDPs.
Western countries will start to impose harsher travel restrictions on Kenyans. Middle and upper class Kenyans who can afford to travel and send their children abroad for further studies may be particularly affected.
If Uhuru and Ruto do not appear at their own trials, they will not be able to represent Kenya at international forums. Their travel will be restricted to countries that promise not to hand them over to the ICC.
They, in turn, may decide to follow the path of isolationism by breaking all international agreements that Kenya is signatory to. If Ruto and Uhuru attend their trials, and even if they are found innocent, they will have to spend a considerable amount of their time at The Hague.
Kenya will suffer from an absentee leadership. Anarchy might ensue. Regional warlords may take advantage of the situation and break up the country into fiefdoms. Jealous neighbours may also use the leadership vacuum to gain economic and political supremacy in the region.
If found guilty, Uhuru and Ruto will face a Nixonian moment: resign or be impeached by the National Assembly,” says Tom Maliti of the ICC Kenya Monitor blog. “At the ICC level, the men will go into detention as the court searches for a country to hold them in prison for the duration of whatever sentence is handed down.”
Although in the last weeks Kosgey has initiated a grassroots campaign to woe the Kalenjin community back to ODM to support Raila’s presidential bid, reportedly spoken personally to the Kalenjin MPs and assured them of ODM tickets if they returned to back Raila, the fact that Kalenjins view Kosgey as having been favoured by Raila as ICC case is concerned makes his campaign impossible to convince Kalenjins.
There is already rift between Road Minister Franklin Bett and Kosgey over running mate. While Raila would prefer Kosgey to be his running mate Bett insists that this must be done through ODM nomination and not direct. If Raila maintains that it is through direct nomination then the next MP to ditch him is Bett.
According to a credible source close, Bett has been pressurised by his constituents to join Ruto’s bandwagon or be shelved in March 4th general election. The source said, Bett who is also the Bureti MP has tried to market ODM party in South Rift but he has met stiff resistance from William Ruto’s supporters who have remained defiant on accepting Prime Minister Raila Odinga‘s Presidential quest.
ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo had prepared charges of crimes against humanity against Kosgey but in January the Pre-Trial Chamber declined to confirm the charges.
Ruto on the other hand is having a big problem with his URP party. He has been accused of favouring certain politicians even though he insists that there will be fair competition inside the URP.
Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo is among the MPs who have expressed his frustrations with the URP. Ruto’s allies from Kipsigis community led by Charles Keter and Julius Kones accused him of using Chepalangu MP Isaac Ruto to fight them politically.
Another divisive issue within URP where MPs was Ruto’s choice of Environment minister Chirau Mwakwere as his vice-presidential running mate 2013. “Ruto never consulted anyone on this issue. He appears to be doing the same things he complained about when he told us to quit ODM. That is why we see no problem in dealing with Raila again, or any other party”, said one MP.
The URP leaders are also under pressure from sections of the Kalenjin community to chart their own political course and to avoid the G7 proposal for a single presidenital candidate if it is not Ruto.
A private opinion poll carried out by professionals from Rift Valley revealed that most Kalenjin MPs including those allied to Ruto will not be re-elected because they have lost popularity.
Except for Ruto himself and Belgut MP Charles Keter, all the other MPs scored less than 50 percent in the opinion poll. They were mostly accused of abandoning their constituencies or mismanaging CDF funds.
According to Waki report, William Ruto planned incitement, and financing the violence- In August 2007 he held a meeting with the other senior ODM leaders in Kipkelion near Kericho including former Sotik MP the late Lorna Labodo, the late Kipkalia K. Kones (Bomet), Kiprono L. J. Magerer (Kipkelion), and Franklin Bett (Bureti) where the leaders resolved to carry out mass evictions of non-Kalenjins from ‘their’ Rift Valley areas, particularly the Kikuyu and Abagusii.
Kalenjin MPs who have stuck with ODM despite the Ruto-led wave rebellion in the region include Ministers Henry Kosgey (Industrialisation), Margaret Kamar (Higher Education), Sally Kosgey (Agriculture), and Magerer Lang’at (Energy).
The ODM bagged 33 parliamentary seats in the Rift Valley most of them having come from the two most populous sub-clans, namely, the Kipsigis and Nandis followed by Tugen Keiyo and Marakwet.
Given that the Nandis comes the second after the Kipsigis Raila has no option but to stick with Nandi MPs. This is the community that delivered four seats in Nandi South and North namely Aldai, Emgwen, Mosop, and Tinderet.
Fr Joachim Omolo Ouko, AJ
People for Peace in Africa
Tel +254-7350-14559/+254-722-623-578
E-mail omolo.ouko@gmail.com
Peaceful world is the greatest heritage That this generation can give to the generations To come – All of us have a role.