From: BOB-K BOB-K
Subject: What country does he live in?
Date: Sunday, December 6, 2009, 9:07 AM
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Could a Raila fall bring healing to this country?
By MUTAHI NGUNYIPosted Saturday, December 5 2009 at 18:17
In Summary
* The Raila-Ruto ‘catfight’ has its owners. The latter is a mere hangman.
This week did not make sense to me. Kofi Annan arrived on an irrelevant mission. And then he said nothing new. All he did was whine about a local tribunal. And on this, the man does not get it. We have said no to a local tribunal. Period.
But if he is unhappy with us, he is free to set up a “local tribunal” for Kenya in “Kumasi” or wherever he comes from. It is that simple. Then there was the constitutional review debate. This one is dying. For some reason, it did not even pick. It has no oomph, no energy! And I blame the lethargy on the draft constitution.
It has no legs; no future. But in the razzmatazz of the week, two things stood out. One, the Raila-Ruto “cat fight”. Two, the looming shadow of Moreno-Ocampo and his expected announcement before Christmas. If the week was confused, it is because of the two things. And, in my view, they are related.
Allow me to explain.
Raila Odinga is a slow-punctured revolutionary. And the tragedy is this: He is in denial. But on this, I do not blame him. The brother is keeping it real!
As the Chinese say: “… if you want to shrink something, you must first expand it. If you want to get rid of something, you must first allow it to flourish”. This is the “Odinga tragedy”.
As Prime Minister, he is ‘‘expanding’’ and flourishing. Unfortunately, he has become a balloon. Bloated, flighty and full of air. Soon, he will be popped. And, in my view, this is deliberate.
Even in the Holy Bible, they fattened a lamb. The fat lamb believed it was the best until they sacrificed it. The ancient tribes did the same. They looked for the finest human being. Then they fed him, oiled him and elevated his ego. And when the time was ripe, they offered him to the gods.
Like in ancient times, Mr Odinga is being fattened. The tragedy is that he is enjoying the “fattening”. Soon, they will present him to the “gods” as a sacrifice.
And William Ruto will be the happy “High Priest” to perform the ceremony. In sum, the Raila-Ruto “cat fight” has its owners. Mr Ruto is just a front; a mere hangman.
But if this is true, who are the owners of this ‘‘fight’’? There are two layers of owners. The first is vicious, the second is cautious. The vicious layer has nothing to lose “except its chains”.
This is the group mentioned in the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights report. On this list we have Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, Mr William Ruto and Mr Najib Balala.
If Mr Moreno Ocampo relied on this report, the three have reason to panic. And in panic, it is only reasonable for them to form a “brotherhood” of sorts. The “Mau rebellion” is therefore an excuse; a platform that brings them together.
Unfortunately, Mr Odinga is in denial. He cannot read the ploy. Yet in the scheme of things, he is the target; the fat sacrificial lamb to be offered to the political “gods”. But why do I say so? I have two reasons.
One, he is seen as a traitor by the Kalenjin Nation. If they fought in 2008, it was because of him.
But when Moreno Ocampo came to town, he disowned them. And for this, they can no longer call him “Mibei”. The fond nickname is no more. In fact, the fallout between him and the Kalenjin Nation is total.
Now they must send him to the gallows. And their hangman is Mr Ruto. The second reason involves others: those afraid of the “Ocampo process”. Their options are few.
To buy time, they must destabilise the coalition government without collapsing it. And the best way to do this is to bring Mr Odinga down. The tool for doing so is a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister.
This vote requires 112 MPs. If the Mau harambee could summon 56 MPs overnight, it can double the figure in a month or so.
But what does such a vote mean? Would it collapse the government? Would it lead to an election? Zero! The option for a snap election was removed. It is not in the Accord; not in the constitution. If the coalition government collapses, President Kibaki takes it all. No election; no contest.
Similarly, if Mr Odinga is removed, ODM would have to look for a new party leader. Constitutionally, the new leader would be appointed Prime Minister. And if they fail to get a new leader, the President can decide to do without a Prime Minister. After all, Mr Moi operated without a Vice-President for eight months. In sum, if Mr Odinga is sacrificed, the country would move on!
Let us consider the second layer now. In this group we have everyone Mr Odinga has betrayed. And when you summon the evidence, he has betrayed almost everyone. In political science, we love such people. In real life, however, they get killed; sacrificed to the “gods”.
Beginning with the president, he would love to sacrifice this man. If he was not a decent man, he would support a vote of no confidence in the PM. This would declare him the “winner” of the 2007 election rather late. It would bring an end to power sharing constitutionally.
The vice-president would support this to settle an old score. Mr Odinga betrayed him when he decided to run for president in 2007. As for Mr Kenyatta, the Prime Minister is a foe. He betrayed him in 2002 when he left Kanu to join the Rainbow Coalition. If he had not done so, Mr Kenyatta would be president today. The wounds of Mr Ruto and the Rift Valley MPs are still fresh. Their betrayal is “now”!
They would support such a move. And the question to the prime minister therefore is this: where are your troops? My reading is this: He has none. If this is true, he is being fattened as a sacrificial lamb. Like a good sacrifice, the sins of the post- election violence will be forgiven if we sacrifice him. This is why he must be afraid. Very afraid!
Mutahi Ngunyi is a political scientist with The Consulting House, a policy and security innovation think-tank for the Great Lakes Region and West Africa. Mutahi@myself. com
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Bob-K
Enquiring mind wants to know
Lee,
Please do not respond to Mutahi Ngunyi. The man is playing in dirt and I bet you are not in that league.
If you want to respond, respond to serious minds; eg Barrack Muluka, Phillip Ochieng, Dennis Galuva etc, but never respond to Mutahi Ngunyi.
he lost it long time ago. He will soon start affecting the sales of The Daily Nation if they do not drop him.
Watch this space.
Oto
Odhis, I will respond. But one thing is certain, he is driving people away from the Nation on Sunday. He must start writting objective analysis without playing in dirt. I mean, he can take anti-Raila stand but in a more objective way.
Lee,
Mutahi Ngunyi is past his sell-by date.
He is doing The Daily Nation a dis-service by only targeting Raila all the times. It is said that simple minds discuss people and that is where Ngunyi is— Very Firmly– a very simple mind.
He is adding no value to the quest that Kenya needs.
If I were you, I would ignore him and move on.
Oto
I disagree with these anti-Mutahi sentiments. As Phillip Ochieng’ is fond of saying, “Do not shout – argue!”
What exactly has Mutahi said that is not true?
It is true that simple minds discuss people, whereas great minds discuss ideas. But do you think those great ideas come from trees? The great ideas come come from people, and in a situation like Kenya, where politics and personalities are the order of the day, its difficult to discuss anything without resulting to the people behind those ideas.
It has been rather bewildering to see that the whole cabinet has kept quiet when Raila is being roasted and hang by the Rift Valley MPs due to his stand on the Mau, yet this was a cabinet decision. Why is it that its only Raila’s name that’s being targeted? Why is it that Kibaki would ostensibly prevail upon the VP not to attend the Mau harambee, yet his own son is sending donations to the same? How comes that not even Kibaki has come to rescue his own PM in the face of endless attacks for a decision that the whole government should be taking responsibility for?
It would appear to me that, as Mutahi rightly puts it, there is much more to this than just Raila-Ruto cat fights.
And yes, I will continue buying the Sunday Nation and reading Mutahi’s articles. To me, he’s one among a few writers in our newspapers today who still keep it real and tell it as it is. Window-dressing and burying of the head in the sand are activities for the cowards.
A genuine leader with solid backbones to bring changes needed in Kenya must be able to take criticisms from both supporters and and opponents.
There are so many issues to be attended to in Kenya and any real leader with thick skin must be able to rebuff his opponents using facts. When facts are on his sides, I am sure that any leader determined to make things work for ordinary Kenyan will prevail.
The Mau issue was a trap set to break ODM, and those characters fleeing the party are the flukes who have brought suffering at the doors of many in Kenya!. They, who cannot stick to a party for a day, are not the kinds of people capable of negotiating international trade deals favoring Kenya, and therefore, must not be trusted in leadership positions in Kenya, except leading their own immediate families!
Remember, during 2007 election, Wanaichi gave ODM majority in Parliament to make changes for Kenyans. Those unstable personalities in ODM, who are keeping their mouth shut, when they they are needed by Kenyans most, are the problem. These “jacks of all trades” are not the alpha males/females anybody can count on, because they only think of themselves and their bloated egoes.
These are not people with visions to build anything, leave alone a political party. Why can’t they disagree privately with one another and make their party better if there are problems? They think they can just dismantle peoples hopes, that were handed to them in 2007, and merely go back to voters, and manipulate their way back to parliament election after election. How arrogant!
Kenyans do not need indecisive followers, who take their cues from some shadowy figures behind the scenes, and young activists who love Kenya must not allow this to happen again, please?
Guys, Mutahi Ngunyi’s is a good critique which if read well should be a good input into the political strategy for Raila.
To me Mutahi is saying: R.H. Raila, take care, take a hard look at your options because your fellow politicians are preparing you to be taken to ‘kichinjio’. He is actually exposing an evil political scheme already plotted against Raila and for us who are not for that scheme we are hoping ODM and Raila strategists are working on a strategy.
If only a strategy would be worked to finish these opportunistic politicians, Kenya woueld move on in the right direction.
I would only caution Raila supporters not to be too zealous. Read some of these critiques before rushing to defend Raila. You end up doing more damage.
It is also Raila’s main undoing: commenting on every trivial issue in town.
May be Raila is missing somebody like Salim Lone to handle his PR. If Alfred Mutua cannot speak on behalf of the government regarding Mau then Raila should pay Lone from his pocket or well wishers.
I still maintain that Nguyi, like Dick Morris, are all for the money! He should change topic abit to other guys. I think he has read enough of this and will change topic next week