From: Mugo Muchiri
Los Angeles, CA
March 1, 2013
Q: Habari ndugu Mugo? How have you been?
Mugo: Njema kabisa. Hope wewe pia.
Q: Yes indeed, asante. I’d like us to discuss a number of important issues this month, not the least of which is the election that takes place this Monday March 4, 2003. Then there’s the National Land Commission……..some exciting news on that front. But let’s start with some equally uplifting ag news. Mango farmers in Embu County earned Shs 18million since December, the start of the season. This is up from Shs 5million, a 360% rise in earnings. This has got to be some very good news for the local mango farmer in Embu.
Mugo: Indeed. We’ve all heard that a long journey starts with the first step. So this represents Embu’s first significant lurch forward. The surge in attributed in part to efforts by ICIPE which supplied pheromone-impregnated fruit fly traps that significantly curtailed insect damage to the crop. Female insects emit sex pheromones as chemical attractants. Their synthetically produced counterparts are inserted into a trap to lure the males. The little guys ‘go bananas’ and while they’re at it don’t make nearly as much damage to the crop.
Q: The same report mentions that expectations are for Embu farmers to earn upwards of Sh. 40million by the end of the mango season in April.
Mugo: Well this is quite exciting for me. Agriculture is the mainstay of Kenya’s economy, accounting as it does for approximately 70% of it. When the common farmer has access to markets, then there’s an all-round encouragement. You really want everyone to feel vested in the Kenyan economy and making farmers’ lives more purposeful and profitable will surely go a long way in that direction.
Q: Talk a little bit about the export potential of mangoes. Do you see AGOA providing a channel for Kenyan mangoes into the US market?
Mugo: That’s a great question. AGOA for those of us not familiar is the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act which President George W. Bush signed into legislation on July 12, 2004. It aims to provide greater US market access via elimination of tariffs and duty on a certain class of goods from Africa like apparel, horticultural products, etc. Nations benefitting need to demonstrate increasing labor rights and more market-based policies.
I think this would be an exciting goal for Embu farmers – hopefully through a cooperative society – to work towards. They certainly need to make contact with the Nairobi USAID trade hub (one of three in Africa) which was established precisely to give US market-access technical advice. The extent to which Embu can comply with US’s strict sanitary and phytosanitary standards will certainly work towards enhancing rather than declining the export potential of their product.
The US market is important because it swallows nearly 1/3 of total world mango production. Its current main suppliers include Mexico and Central America, both of which have either territorial contiguity or proximity with her. But still, the math will determine whether any zero-rated product passes competitive muster.
Q: Talking of territorial proximity, the EU is there. Most of our flowers go there; so is the Middle East.
Mugo: Absolutely. The EU consumes about 10% of global mangoes while the UAE and Saudi Arabia account for 7% and 5% respectively. Netherlands is a major global player and like UAE and Saudi Arabia re-exports to its neigbhors. One last piece of important detail has to do with the processed mango fruit market which India is the hands-down global leader in (as they are with mango exports at 40%).
I mean just think about it. How could a robust County government (and CDF) do for Embu farmers in the following categories: mango juice, pickled mangoes, mango chutney, mango pulp, mango paste, mango puree, mango flour, mango slices in brine, dried mango fruit. You see the possibilities? Now you begin to understand the devastatingly handsome leverage that good governance has the potential to occasion.
Q: Governance is a great segway to our next topic: the National Land Commission. Well it’s now up and running thank God, having been sworn in by Chief Justice Willy Mutunga on Wednesday February 27, 2013. A sign of relief?
Mugo: A big Yes! It was highly uncharacteristic to delay their gazettment especially since all court challenges had been exhausted, but finally it happened. Let’s see how Bwana Swazuri (or should I say daktari) & Co proceed. They have the goodwill of the vast majority of Kenyans. Their importance cannot be over-stated and this led the CJ to refer to them as the “mother of all commissions.”
Will they tackle historical land injustices with a keen eye to justice and human rights? Squatters all over the nation will be keen to hear. Will they manage all public land on behalf of the national and county governments with a judicious hand? Will they shepherd the process of title registration in a manner that inspires confidence? Will they conduct their research into land use and natural resource utilization with righteousness? Let us see. What’s important for this group of 9 to know is that it has the genuine goodwill and support of the Kenyan people. Just like Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki at the start of their terms. The question is: will it still enjoy the same adoration during its sunset years, for everything that starts must have an end? Good luck ndugu na dada!
Q: Well said! Now on to the coming election. Monday ndiyo mambo yote. You didn’t think Uhuru and Ruto would be in the running. Your words if I recall well were “next to nil chance of running.” Eating humble pie?
Mugo: No, I’m a githeri type of guy. So yes to humble githeri…….about 1/3; the rest 1/3 for water and the last 1/3 for air! The mistake we often make is being normative in our analysis. What it ought to be doesn’t always coincide with what is or will be. Normatives are based on ideals; actuality is very much a creature of the level of coherence in our collective consciousness.
The point is that a majority of Kenyans believe that the Prime Minister’s office has been a most sleazy den of corruption. We all know about Kazi kwa Vijana, the Maize scandal, enormous accumulation of wealth of ODM ministers and senior staff in the PM’s office. No one has come to refute Miguna Miguna’s claims, lest they provoke him to really ‘go nuclear.’
We also know, as Martha Karua has often asserted, that you or I would never hire a shambaa boy facing serious charges in court. Yet half of us are all gaga about the Uhuru-Ruto ticket. A major part of the tensions in this country are and have been due to land. The issue of Uhuru and his family’s land holdings came up during the debates. Ruto has a current court case of expropriation of land in Uasin Gishu from one Adrian Muteshi. Yet a part of our brain completely washes this away. A friend of mine told me ‘elections sanctify the wolves. We arm ourselves with the belief that this time around, we have faithful guardians of the chicken house.’
Why is it that people are as if irresistably drawn to vote choices they know are not in their best interest? If the resumes of all candidates had their names removed so that only character, integrity, experience, performance and passion were available for scrutiny, who do you think would win?
Q: A lot of folks say that the verbal opinions expressed by the United States, France, Germany, Switzerland, etc ., may been prejudicial to the Prime Minister, and that may have accounted for the zooming forth of Uhuru’s poll numbers relative to Raila’s. What are your thoughts on this?
Mugo: You know these are really uncharted waters for the nation, and even for the world. I don’t recall any country on earth that’s had presidential candidates with an ICC overhang. I don’t fault these nations for their pronouncements. I think it would be imprudent for them to keep silent and then suddenly ‘ambush’ Kenya’s president and his deputy with diplomatic snubs in the event that the Uhuru-Ruto ticket wins. I’m not sure about the reasoning behind Uhuru’s surging numbers except to say that he and Ruto got a new lease on life once the specter of their possible disqualification essentially evaporated. After Justice David Majanja’s ruling, you really saw a re-energized campaign machine.
Q: So you don’t take Jendaye Fraser’s approach that Ambassador Johnnie Carson’s “elections have consequences” remarks are interference in the internal affairs of Kenya?
Mugo: I really don’t take solace in her words. For all intents and purposes, Jendaye will continue having a well paying job at Carnegie Mellon University. But what happens to Kenya and the average Kenyans? What is the nature of the consequences that Mr. Carson was alluding to? You have got to believe that exhaustive high-level discussions about ramifications of a Uhuru presidency have been had in Washington. My question is ‘what are the specific consequences?’
Q: A lot of Kenyans say ‘damn this talk of consequences.’ That Kenyans have a right to chose their leaders without any big brother advice. That Kenyans don’t tell them how to handle gays, although a majority of Kenyans abhor that lifestyle. So why should they meddle in our affairs? That America preaches adherence to the ICC track yet she herself is not a state party the ICC. That Kenyans are ready for anything, therefore no one should mess with their sovereignity. How do you respond to these folks?
Mugo: I would say to them that Robert Mugabe of a once vibrant Zimbabwe, upon hearing of possible international sanctions, said “gold in the ground doesn’t expire; it gains value as time ticks on.” Two weeks ago, it was reported that Zimbabwe had less than $300 in one of its international accounts. Busloads of Zimbabweans have had to seek refuge in neighboring countries (especially in South Africa) to escape hard times at home.
I would say to them that despite having vast reservoirs of oil, Iran’s economy is very close to the brink, which may explain its newfound eagerness to engage on the Nuclear issue. There are reportedly no medicines in hospitals and chemists; their businessmen cannot do international transactions because bank transfers are next to impossible. Even China, a large importer of Iranian oil, cannot find a way to pay for oil due to international financial restrictions. Freighters, including Russian ones, carrying Iranian oil have had to yield as their insurance policies, largely underwritten in Britain, have become null and void.
I would say to them: ‘why do you think a foreign-currency starved Moi formed the Dream Team?’ Out of his benevolence, really? How about restrictions of dollar remittances to Kenya?
I would say to them: ‘what about AIDS funding; what about free primary education funding; what about horticultural exports to the EU; what about Kenyan business and industry and its import needs? Indeed what about AGOA? What about the dollar going to 100? There are so many ways that the Kenyan economy is intertwined with the West, that’s what I would say to them.
Q: And they would respond ‘but China is there, you don’t want to deal with us, well we’ll just look East?’ What would you say?
Mugo: I would say to them: ‘do you want all your cards tied to China? A nation that will never raise a finger, voice or vote if ordinary citizens are butchered like those in Syria? Will China help you fight for a gender-based affirmative action policy? Will China help fight corruption? Will China raise its voice for a peaceful environment for free and fair elections? Will China express support for resettlement of IDPs? Will China call for the full implementation of the Constitution, including providing funds to enhance the Judiciary’s capacity and effectiveness? Will China assist in formulating and implementing a Climate Change Response Action Plan? Will she be vigorous in insisting on ensuring effectiveness of budget proposals? Will China call for upgrading the Mombasa port to be a one-stop shop and communication hub? How about adoption of a health plan or adoption of a drought preparedness plan, or even setting up of a transitional authority to guide devolution?
America and the EU have been strong partners in helping the government realize and activate the channels through which its mandate to provide services to the Kenyan people need to flow.
The point is: these are all uncertainties. Yet we all concur that good decisions have to made in an environment of ample information, often of a constrasting nature. Good leaders yearn for competing viewpoints. Isn’t this why we had the presidential debates? So that the candidates and their policies can be interrogated on behalf of Kenyans? So that Kenyans get the peel back the masks so to speak?
Q: That’s heavy stuff bwana. So who do you think wins this thing come Monday?
Mugo: Despite the predictions from both camps of a first-round victory, I see us headed towards a run-off. Then the dynamics shift dramatically. The question becomes ‘whom do the supporters of Musalia Mudavadi, Martha Karua and future President Peter Kenneth coalesce around?’ It’s hard to say at this point.
Q: Do you expect it will all be a peaceful affair?
Mugo: Oh yes! Everyone has ‘let’s be peaceful’ on their lips. Even me, when I was leaving for work today, I saw the neighbor’s dog and told it to think ‘peace thoughts’ for Kenya come Monday. And it barked back, ‘Whoa, whoa!’ which I think meant ‘OK.’
Q: Ok bwana Mugo. Thanks for sharing and look forward to a peaceful election and a prosperous Kenya.
Mugo: Umesema vizuri sana. Thank you too. God doesn’t bless in a vacuum; a people have to deserve first, and the blessings flow. Raise the pipe to the level of the lake and the water will flow to your fields. Kwaheri.