DICTATORS AND REFERUNDA -By Gwada ogot
Historical Lessons for Kenya to learn from.
“How fortunate for leaders that men do not thinsk”-ADOPLH HITLER Nazi Party leader
A referendum is a form of direct democracy where citizens make a choice on a particular issue. Plebiscites are also notoriously known as the democratic weapon of dictators. Through history despots have successfully used plebiscites to consolidate political power.
Louis Napoleon was among the world’s first modern day tyrants to call a referendum- in 1851 to sanction his ouster of the French republic with two plain choices:-Napoleon or chaos!
In Kenya , Raila Odinga has hedged his political rise on Constitutional Amendments- launched by the repeal of section 2A in 1991; in 2008, he became prime minister via the Constitution of Kenya Amendment Act 2008 and now self destines to become executive prime minister via another constitutional review- pending a referendum.
In August 2005, Raila Odinga, led the symbolic “Orange” side in a conclusive “NO” victory against the “YES”- “Banana” side of president Kibaki in a national referendum vote on whether or not Kenya should adopt the “Bomas” Draft constitution.
Today he is again at the fore of Kenya ’s second constitutional referendum within a record five years. The options this time are whether Kenya should adopt a presidential or parliamentary system of government.
Plebiscites accord despots a chance to connect psychologically and emotionally with the populace by mobilizing them around a single issue. The real objectives are often ignoble but well disguised in euphoric din. Sample the following examples:
Former Chilean dictator, General Augustine Pinochet held a plebiscite in 1978 to renew public confidence in his continued rule following protests by the United Nations about his regimes bloody excesses. He won by a 74% margin.
In 1980, another referendum ratified by 68.5% an extension of his autocratic rule to 1989. However at a third referendum in 1988, 56% of Chileans voted against his plans to further extend his totalitarian reign.
Adolph Hitler led Germany through four referenda. On 12th November1933 a referendum ratified a decision by Hitler’s to withdraw from the Geneva Disarmament Conference and the League of Nations by a 96% “YES” vote margin.
A second referendum, held in August 1934 ratified Hitler’s decision to assume executive powers of Chancellor-Fuhrer after the death of President Hindenburg by a 90% “YES” vote in favor.
The March 29th 1936 plebiscite ratified his military occupation of the Rhineland ’s by 98% of registered voters. Hitler’s final plebiscite was held on April 10th 1938 to endorse his Anschluss or annexation of Austria . He again scored a whopping 99% of the registered vote.
Due to Hitler’s effectual disguise of his oppressive policies under populist referenda, Germany has had no legal provision for holding plebiscites at the federal level since World War II.
In self exaltation, Hitler once famously remarked, ‘great masses of the people will more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one’. Adolph Hitler in his formative days, was a key advocate of social reform, justice and change!
Earlier in France , Napoleon Bonaparte organized a constitutional referendum to ratify his position as First Consul on 7th February 1800. Official results recorded a 99.94% “YES” vote in favor. Buoyed, he held a second referendum on 2nd August 1802 to sanction his position as “First Consular for life” and officially achieved a remarkable 99.8% of the vote.
Likewise, in Eastern Europe, Nicolae Ceausescu, the fallen Romanian tyrant held a populist referendum in 1968 seeking to change the constitution to officially bar Romania from borrowing money from Western nations and received a 90% “YES” vote in favor.
In the Philippines , Dictator Ferdinand Marcos called three referenda; the last in 1976 guaranteed his continued stay in power, granted him special powers to rule by emergency decree and immunity from prosecution once out of office.
A key lesson for Kenya is the Sri Lankan case of former President J R Jayewardene who called a plebiscite on 20th October 1982 to extend the life of parliament to six years and to introduce proportional representation. The resultant turmoil remains unresolved in the Asian nation to date.
The poison is not in the incredible figures recorded but rather in what followed.
Kenya for its part is hardly off the sick bay after the gloomy events of the 2005 referendum and the 2007 general elections. In fact as the referendum draws close, citizens are not just wary of the entire review process but are actually suspicious of the real intentions of some of their leaders’.
Strategically, the April 2010 constitutional referendum in Kenya is the last shot in a run of timed political moves to consolidate personal political power under the camouflage of populist reform. The process commenced with the heady drive to repeal section 2A of the constitution which restored multiparty politics in 1991.
While the return of multi party politics was a noble idea, it was the rough shod manner of its implementation that accentuated ethno-political fractures. No guiding policy had been formulated until after seventeen years of perpetual conflict, parliament passed the contentious Political Parties Act 2008.
In 1997, the Inter Party Parliamentary Group (IPPG) Amendments proposals soon followed. By 2003, the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission (CKRC) had presented a Draft Constitution of Kenya, 2004 – the still born “Boma’s Draft” for ratification by the National Constitution Conference.
The 2005 referendum was the penultimate and laid ground for both the bloody 2007 elections and the forthcoming April 2010 plebiscite.
In 2008, Koffi Annan led a team from the African Panel of Eminent persons in brokering peace following the resultant election chaos and witnessed signing of the National Accord- a power sharing deal.
The National accord which formed the government of national unity was signed in circumstances similar to those of Louis Napoleon in the referenda of 1851- sign or chaos!
The cumulative events from 1992 or 1982 depending on your point of reflection, had at last rewarded power through two constitutional Acts of parliament – the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Act 2008 and the Constitution of Kenya review Act 2008.
Summarily, the two Acts of Parliament would serve as the legal frame work for achieving a new constitution or in political proviso, the final consolidation of power. The Review Act has crafted a Committee of Experts (CoE) to finalize work on a new Draft Constitution.
The Draft should thereafter be passed by the National Assembly before being put to the public for a referendum vote in April 2010.
Glancing at the trail left behind, one wonders what is yet to come. Fate compels not only all Kenyans but mankind to soberly introspect as the world inches closer to the year 2012- the year of the phenomena.
Only this time, the decision to decide may be taken away from Kenyans citizens and placed on parliament- depending on the referendum- so much for constitutional reform in Kenya ?
In the mean time, every one has fought the other, question is, “Is the spin of history unfolding in Kenya and will Kenya join the list of nations ruptured by the ulterior referenda motives? “
Your vote is as good as mine.
For God and my Country.
To say that Orange Banana referendum was a vote for or against the Bomas Draft constitution is a deliberate attempt to mislead us Mr Gwada Ogot.
Bomas draft evolved through a very comprehensive process which involved diverse grassroots and mostly ordinary Kenyans under the chairmanship of a professor who was Kenyan enough (born in Kenya) but also international enough to be free from short term political interests. The result was,not a perfect constitution, but one different enough to frighten those that benefited from the mutilated, lop sided current constitution.
The ruling elite, to protect their interests came up with the Kilifi draft, or Wako draft, which was, for all intents and purposes the old constitution. Kenyans were not hoodwinked and they rejected it in large numbers, not for Raila, but for themselves.
It is wrong to talk about Raila as if it is a proven fact that he is a dictator. Raila is the only parliamentarian that respected the electorate enough to resign and seek fresh mandate when he resigned from the party they had elected him in, and joined a new party. He did not have to do this, because nobody had ever done it before, he did it as a matter of principle He does not dictate to the people, he fights for their will and their rights.
You have given several examples where referendums have been used by people in power to consolidate and perpetuate that power. It is not referendums that make the dictators, the dictator misuse, what is otherwise an effective democratic tool. Elections have been used with the same effect. it does not make elections bad.
You seem to use the idea of referendum as a scare word, the way the west used to use socialism during the cold war.
The coming referendum is not the ‘second in five years’, we hope it will be the real one and will be on the real Bomas Constitution and not another concoction to fool Kenyans.
“In 2008, Koffi Annan led a team from the African Panel of Eminent persons in brokering peace following the resultant election chaos and witnessed signing of the National Accord- a power sharing deal.”
By whom was “the African Panel of Eminent persons” appointed? Were they Kenyans, or some foreign powers with choke hold on Kenya’s natural resources, which now includes Kenyans young men, with future so dim that they have to fight foreign wars, without being recognized as war heroes!!!
There is nothing like foreign wars. If we want to talk about foreign wars, then we are cheaply and egoistically forgetting that we had Hempstone of the time, who helped broaden democratic space, for we egoists to turn back, believing that if its we, its done.
I always wonder with utter amazement, that, if we were not here today would Kenya really exist? The answer is definite YES. Because we were not here yesterday, and will not be here tomorrow, thank God Kenya will exist.
If we talk about heroes, then true heroes should be the youths, who repeatedly loose their lives in painful and horrific deaths, when the bulls fight? Little do they know that its really a war, not confronting.
These young beautiful men and women, and Nations future become heroes because they are branded so. Hey, follow closely how the heroes widows and widowers are coping after their heroic actions, its sickening!!
Lets not be heroes then, so long as we have the Kenya we pray, then we don’t need dead heroes.