Dear all,
As they say, when a hen is caught by an hyena, you do not only blame the hyena. You must also blame the hen. I cannot deny that Kibaki is a very very bad man. Kibaki kicked Raila out of NARC after Raila fought tooth and nail for him to be the president of Kenya. I am pretty sure Kibaki could not have come close to presidency without Raila.
As the Italian Mafia say, Raila made Kibaki. Indeed if Raila did not endorse Kibaki, Uhuru could be having his second term. Yes Kibaki is a bad man, he stole the last general election. He installed himself as the president at night, even when the law said that is impossible. He then decided to almost whack Raila. How bad can one be for us to declare him so or too bad.
But, ladies and gentlemen, this is not the end of the story. If Kibaki is that bad, then he must be bad to someone. From the time Kibaki joined politics to date, he has never been vehemently against one as much he has been against Raila. Although he quit Moi government when he was aware he was going to be replaced, he did not openly display the level of displeasure against anyone as he has done against the only person who probably saved his life and his career.
If I was Raila I could have called the old man for a drink and asked him, “Sir, Why do you hate me so much?”. But this is politics. As they say “nothing is personal”. “I had to do what my people want, if not I could have lost my life” may be that is the answer Kibaki always gives Raila every time.
“One who still drinks and merry at the house of a wife who is sleeping with his enemy is digging his own grave”, that is Barack’s saying.
I have a very good reason for the above statement gentlemen and ladies. A chicken that has escaped a Hyena’s grip should know how far they can hunt for even human feces or cow dung for that matter. After the last general election, with all the lives lost, with all the crisis, with all the bitterness, with all the headaches, Raila still did not listen to the people who insisted that he should only sign a comprehensive agreement with a real 50/50 power sharing.
Our forceful suggestion was that, if Kibaki takes justice and constitution and finance ministry, Raila had to take defence ministry and internal security. It did not matter how long the negotiations took. People were keenly waiting on Raila’s decision. However, all these advise and strategy fell into deaf years. Raila still felt that he could trust Kibaki. He went ahead and signed a half baked coalition law. A law that only favored him and left the ODMer’s out. One by one, soldiers fell by the way side. Raila even proceeded to strongly pursue a stronger coalition with Kibaki’s base, while dismantling his. When these arguments came up, the sycophants brandished the strategists as traitors and said “go PM, go go go go PM is your birthday, we gona party like it is ……”.
Here we are now. The PM has only powers to suspend and not to fire and even that is suspect. Kibaki called it a bluff and there no damn thing the PM can do but to cry for Annan to come back.
Well the process to dismantle the PM began. The Mungiki issue came. While Kibaki refused to meet Mungiki, the very people who met him in the state house after he stole the election and actually burned people alive on his behalf, Raila said, ” Mungiki are Kenyans and if Kenyans have problems then I must meet them”. Well the meeting failed because of the noise Raila supporters made and still make. I am glad this meeting failed, but do not forget, Raila sent a book to Maina Njenga. The book was on how to control masses.
Then followed the issue of postelection violence, Raila wanted all his supporters to be jailed, hanged or taken to the Hague hoping that he will remain in the coalition with Kibaki. And I was left to wonder, if they pick one of your supporters, especially Ruto, would it not be possible for Ruto to give evidence against Raila. Why does Raila think that he is so clean about this. Are there phone calls, communications, meetings that Ruto could use. I still believe that Ruto would not go down alone on this.
Kibaki knows about this and he cannot wait for Raila to tie a rope around his own neck. Indeed he hoped this rope could hang Raila faster, but it seems it was taking too long, so when the Mau issue came up, he saw another opportunity. And to everyone’s surprise, Raila again swallowed the bait, under the pretext that he is a man of the people and would kick poor people out of their homes, put them in the streets and still hope to be loved by everyone. Kibaki waited until the day of tree planting and told Raila to carry his own cross. Do not forget, Kibaki himself directed Raila to take charge of the Mau issue. Why did he back off in the last minute and fail to go for tree planting. Raila was told, this was a wrong move, but again he listened to sycophants. He believed that Kenyans really cared about being a populist.
Then came the Ruto issue. If there was any man who is not from Raila’s tribe that could have taken a bullet for Raila in Kenyan, then I must say that that man is Ruto. Ruto left his “father” (there is quite a resemblance, check it again) Moi to support Raila and yet every chance Raila got, he hammered Ruto and all Ruto’s interests. He hated Ruto with a passion, to an extent that he decided to eventually fire him, when Ruto only gave 1000 bags of maize to a disabled man, while Raila’s aid had ten times this.
Well Ruto did a mistake. He corrupted himself. However, I have rarely seen a man handing over his child to the police for stealing one dollar. He has not killed anyeone for God’s sake. There must be room for warning, especially when it comes to Ruto and the votes that Ruto can bring to the PM in the next election.
Yes corruption is so bad. I detest corruption, but if you want to start a war, you must check if you have enough soldiers and enough weapons. At the time the PM chose to fire Ruto and Ongeri, he knew quite well that the accord does not give him any powers beyond the one he invoked. He should have known that even though he is in the executive branch of the government, he does not have powers over the police, the army, the provincial administration and even the justice department. All he has is the coalition amendment.
Essentially Raila has no powers to do anything but squeak. Which means when he has created problems then he has to go and cry to those who have the power of the money and the gun and that is the USA and the west. Raila does not have this power within the precinct of Kenya. Moreover, Raila could have waited only 2 MORE YEARS TO HAVE ALL THE POWERS HE NEEDS TO FIGHT EVERYTHING HE BELIEVES IN. WHY IS RAILA IN SO MUCH OF A HURRY. HOW DOES ALL THIS BENEFIT HIM, HIS BASE OR ANYONE IN KENYA. WAS IT SO IMPOSSIBLE TO KEEP RUTO AND BALALA FOR JUST 2 YEARS.
Knowing this, was it wise for Raila to create this crisis? Did Raila dig his own hole this time? I say yes yes yes. Raila nolonger have the votes to pass anything in parliament. Like Ababu Namwamba said, very few people are willing to go to the streets because of Raila or this issue. The reason is that many do not see this as a genuine course of action. Some see it as genuine, but doubt if the timing is right. How can one decide to suspend a goal keeper from an opponent team, and expect the captain of the other team to keep mum.
In this matter, especially in Africa, the law may be overlooked, especially if you do not have the powers to defend it. Raila himself would protest if Kibaki fired Orengo or Otieno Kajwang. Here I think the PM became a hen looking to be eaten by an hyena. He made himself very vulnerable and very soon he may suffer a vote of no confidence as a payment for his mistake.
Corruption is bad and I hate it, but for Raila to admit that he did not need to consult Kibaki to fire Ongeri borders on activism and disqualifies Raila as a strategic thinker. Did Raila do this as a revenge or did he think it is the right thing to do? Did he ever think of what will follow? Did he think PNU would be very happy about this? Did Raila ever know that he nolonger has the majority in parliament? These are just some questions that crisscross my mind, and upto to today and I have no solid answer. All I can say is that Raila still thinks he is an activist. He still thinks that he has to please the public, even if it is a wrong time to say something in public.
Now Mr. PM, there is a crisis due to what you have done. What are you going to do to resolve this? Calling Annan will not help this time.
I have a solution for you. Pre-empt. Quit the coalition and lets have an election. If you win, you can fire anybody, anytime you want. As for now, know that you are nolonger an activist, have advisers and consult first extensively, talk to non-sycophants, ask for independent opinions, then make a decision that is not going to make us kill each other again. Make a decision only when you have a backup solution. And please, let Annan retire in peace.
Yours Sincerely
Dr. Barack Abonyo
Dr Abonyo,
I hope you saw my piece where I gave you credit for your loud mouth warnings you consistently gave Raila, even when syncophants like us (as you call us) rebutted your unscientific and amateurish political science.
You have spoken well here, and I hope you feel good for letting this off your chest.
Now sit back and let Raila the strategist and people like Omtatah who actually play soccer in the field and not while at Russia continue to change Kenya.
Talking of Russia, what do you have in your brief case? Rocks to throw or actual strategies? Can you let us peep inside?
Since you are so detached there in Florida, allow me to reinstate you for NYANDO 2012. This way you can get to do the politics from the inside. 2 years is not a long time as you allude.
Do we have a deal?
Joragem
Abonyo, I hear your cry and feel your frustrations but I think you lack vision; the ability to look at the bigger picture. I think that your emotions have clouded your cognitive disposition.
Ethnic cleansing is a baggage that no rational leader would want to walk around with. This informs the reason why Raila would want to distance himself from warlords like Ruto (I believe Raila had nothing to do with this cleansing and Ruto has no damning information against him). Courting Ruto would infer culpability.
Equitable sharing of cabinet posts was never going to happen. Kibaki did not give a damn if Kenya was to burn and was insensitive to the public mood. The onus was for ODM to save the country and live to fight another day. I think this was a wise move that shaved the country from imploding and should be applauded.
Plunging on corruption head-on is a very effective strategy. In Kenya there has never been a leader who has had the audacity to spill blood in the fight against corruption. It is an open secret that in Kenya there are untouchable sacred cows. Raila’s suspension of the ministers was a deliberate step in the right direction. He is telling Kenyan’s that if they elect him as CEO he will deliver on this cancer that has stunted Kenya’s growth.
In Kenya one should never worry of the current leaders’ support because over 70% will not see the confines of parliament again. This simply means that they do not have clout and are of no use to anyone who wants to be Kenya’s president. The focus should be the electorate and Raila’s dance is directed to the mwananchi who wields the golden pen.
Abonyo, are YOU GETTING IT !
It seems Raila is being set up by Kibaki. In addition, there seems to be no good faith from Kibaki regarding the Coalition Government and the National Accord.
Not only that, but in all appearances, most of our politicians do not have national interest at heart. They are occupied by getting and preserving power for parochial and short term gains. As a result they hate passionately anything or anybody that threatens the current dispensation because it favours avarice, arbitrariness, unfairness, exclusivism and all the socio-economic evils you can think of.
Raila’s undoing is that he ’seems’ to represent forces that are ‘hell-bent’ on destabilizing the status quo. He therefore faces and will continue to face all odds that any evil force can put together. By the way, given the ugly political history of Kenya, Raila should watch out because at such a time is when he can be assassinated.
Facing all these odds, including possible extermination, do we discourage Raila? I say a loud no. He is not in power for its sake. The late Jaramogi seemed to suffer throughout his political life but much of the political space we have in Kenya today is because of Jaramgi’s efforts.
I agree with the advice to employ the best strategies at all times to seek objective advice before every move. Coupled with this is to have the masses know what good leadership is all about.
Lastly, the failure of real reforms in our governance will not be a failure for Raila but for the whole nation. Even those who think the current status favors them will lose badly. My other assurance is that when the reform struggle gets into the hands of the younger generation who might not care which part of Kenya they come from, my brother Barack, with all the nonsense you hear from Kenya, we will witness a bloody revolution that will raze the current order of things to zero. The result is that many of us, including the Rutos having gone with the old order, will not be there to witness the new order or if alive, will forever be haunted by the responsibility in maintaining the old order.
As for me, I prefer the new order which I am sure you all prefer. However, it will never come in a silver platter. In addition to strategy, SWEAT, SWEAT and you very well know BLOOD blood has worked elsewhere.
Therefore, do not blame Raila for sweating alone. Blame the rest of us for letting Raila and a few activists sweat it alone.
Real Kenyans need to stand up and be counted instead of rationalizing failures of social, political and economic reforms. I consider it lazy intellectualism, trying to justify failures of those struggling at realizing reforms even before such failures are realized.
It pains, and it really is a disappointment to note and learn that not much has been achieved on matters economic that are dear to and expected of Luoland. Instead the culture of neglect and disassociation from the region by the political leadership and selfishness by the general community has been maintained with no regrets and with no lessons learned. But it is even disturbing that, despite earning and owing their leadership to the local electorate and whose concerns and demands they should be championing in parliament and ensuring their becoming realities, local MPs as has been their culture have kept their mandate as one of defending and fighting for the interests of their boss, regardless and wherever, at the expense of those they ought to represent. This has seen Luoland and the community neglected, isolated and the economic opportunities and development that once supported and employed many locals dwindling if not dead, given the antagonistic, isolationist and unapologetic politics notorious and synonymous with local elected political leadership and which has consistently been used to define the people of the community, their political affiliation and nature, and others being apolitical, regardless.
Look at the consequences that careless and power politics had on the Luoland economy and people, which to date have remained unaddressed and the post-election violence victims, despite their having fought for justice for the very leaders now enjoying political office and their accompanying benefits, and many of whom boast legal and human rights credentials plus the vocal nature known of them, have remained just that, sad, forgotten and regretful victims. No local leader in power now wants to identify and sympathise with and fight for them, even with the open and televised brutality and merciless maiming and killing of the innocent Kenyan citizens there by the police and a foreign force, and instead it is victims in the other provinces that are deemed important and more Kenyan and so is concern and demands for justice for them even by the local leaders: Shame!
Furthermore, and despite many local political leadership being in government now, having faulted and fought previous ones for neglecting and denying the region and her people economic development through investment and rightful government services, despite a number of locals being a part of through security of ministerial and parastatal positions then, not much progress is being achieved and the same challenges that have confined the region to underdevelopment have remained and some are multiplying by day. Is it that there really is no difference being in government and being in the opposition, or is it that once in power promises are reserved to be re-made for sympathy votes for re-election despite performance so the power is maintained for self-advancement and to keep people begging for opportunities that never exist? Road, health, school, electricity, water, communications and sports infrastructure development still are matters that need special attention and practical remedies, and not the everyday promises, yet in other regions such are dear investments and reason they always will be in the minds and mouths of their colleagues that they share parliamentary (and cabinet) membership with, nothing but success stories are heard and openly seen. It confirms and explains a weakness in establishing and maintaining collaborations with colleagues and in expressing such concerns on their part as elected local leadership, as can always be seen in their meetings and fundraising affairs where non-party members, marked party members and those from other regions are always isolated rather than welcomed to promote friendship and collaborations regardless of political affiliation and to ensure development of worthy causes take root for the benefit of and to promote coexistence with the Luo community. Sadly, those welcoming these are always branded sell-outs and disloyal to their party and to the community even when the benefits arising from their initiatives are obvious and healthy; Rarieda constituency, with it’s sterling development record, championed by its former legislator but who stupidly and arrogantly was punished through propaganda and by an election loss ensured by those that felt threatened by and despite the bold development statement made in a limited timeframe, is a case in point. Shamefully and disappointedly, no constituency and legislator in Luoland, even its predecessor, have matched or even come close to its development record, their influence and positions held then and now, and credentials and terms in leadership, and having been born and raised in and their belonging to the region which they will retire to in the end notwithstanding. Furthermore, the industries that were once the source of livelihood to many have still remained closed or indebted, so have environmental, health, clean water supply and security concerns remaining in sorry state despite legislators from the region enjoying equal or more CDF allocations like any other, and a number serving in the government; instead preoccupation and energies and time have been dedicated to escapist political battles, checking dissidents, drawing power plans and constitution choruses which have seen the community and the region again isolated. Yet it is noteworthy that local leaders have always made the region their springboard for capturing power after which they desert and detach themselves from her in the name of nationalism and only retreat there whenever their leadership is being challenged and in question for sympathy, consolation and to redeem their image, and undisturbed even by their helping the region with nothing.
The leaders themselves never have priorities and targets to drive and focus their leadership on and the community too never has conditions for exchange of their votes with and say on the performance of leaders in power because candidates themselves never contest and win elections, rather they are imposed on the people after money has exchanged hands, and reason none of the serving leadership can pass a democracy test, because, like previous ones, it’s more of a club of friends and relatives than one for representation, and reason you’ll never hear of a Luoland MP raising constituents’ concerns in Parliament, and also why they always will be on the defensive on matters development even when their colleagues elsewhere that they enjoy positions with make exceptional constituency development news. Without economic empowerment which they should be championing and investing in now with CDF among other government initiatives, political power which after all the community has had since Independence means and will mean nothing, for which are those positions that the Luo have never had, if history is to be revisited? Some of the community’s leaders in the current cabinet have been there before, but what can they be remembered for; and reason the likes of Tom Mboya and Dr. Ouko still are mentioned to date given their initiatives still are visible and admirable, their short lives and service, and CDF and plum perks enjoyed by current leadership but unavailable then, and investment in and the advanced education today and boasted by many, notwithstanding. “It is literally true that you can succeed best and quickest by helping others to succeed”, Napoleon Hill said.
The above mentioned concerns should make a statement to members of the Luo community and have them search their souls and rethink and evaluate their beliefs and redefine their politics and election criteria for future aspirants if meaningful development to have the region return to its old glory is to be realized. Firstly, the culture of worshipping and readily subscribing to be the mouthpieces and defenders of political leaders for their theatrics, political war feats and threatened influence and hence sympathising and fighting for their interests, which truly have done the community and region more harm than good, and which have seen many becoming puppets of political leaders and fighting their wars to their detriment, must be discarded from the community for sober, rational and progressive politics and debates and firm stand on demands.
Secondly, bowing to and allowing the community to be held hostage to and prisoners of political chieftaincies and dominance by a select few and their inheritance networks that keep denying the community and region advancement opportunities, democratic rights and independence in electing candidates of choice at polls, and opening the region to true multiparty politics which some local leaders have always claimed to have championed but which ironically has remained foreign, the very champions themselves having always embraced and balkanized the region with a one-party tradition as is so currently and as has always been even in the past to stifle competitive politics, dealing their claimed political ideologies and independence. For a true democracy as is always being practised by communities from other regions hence their development and independence in pursuing and addressing demands by leaders of their constituents, the community has that opportunity too to embrace, foster and protect its democracy by ensuring only candidates of choice, for their popularity, credibility and records and regardless of party choice, background, status, age and gender, and without coercion, intimidation and bending to threats of punishment for voting otherwise by political forces, get elected. This will deal a blow to the monarchic and one-party dictatorship politics and ensure respect of the people’s rights and freedom of choice as well as guarantee them political empowerment since they will have the power to set conditions for aspirants and see to it that their demands are addressed by whoever they will independently elect, rather than have the aspirant pre-elected by the party leadership and have the people only endorse him/her at polls, hence the challenge of answerability.
Yet, the community must adopt a culture of voting for an aspirant to serve for only one term to offer other credible aspirants the opportunity to bring forth and implement their development visions and to also ensure the spread and diversity of development in the constituency to add up to those of their predecessors, and to also end the pride of certain politicians of making constituencies their reserve by their bribing the leadership of the popular party to ensure continuity of their political life despite continued poor performance and their being rejects of the electorate, and which has seen certain constituency areas being shunned and discriminated against in favour of those close to and preferred by the ‘nominated’ MP. The community has remained the only one that elects leaders based on and affiliated to the popular party of the time and for their friendship with and loyalty and kinship to the party leadership, notwithstanding their character, past, unpopularity with the electorate and without evaluation of their attachment to and nature of their home where charity begins (some do not even have or have homes that belittle their status yet will promise heaven which never comes).These are matters that the local electorate must take seriously to safeguard their rights and interests and ensure common demands and goals are met.
Thirdly, the community must also refuse be as complacent but firmly tell of and disassociate from leaders who spend their terms and whose leaderships thrive on creating and fighting enemies and who raise their grievances at rallies in addition to extending their personal feuds to their constituents for sympathy and to marshal support to thwart their threatened political interests despite their membership to parliament where matters are raised and debated, and those that tarnish the name of the community through dirty politics and putting it at war with others, all at the expense and despite their having been elected to serve and voice the interests of their constituents, besides making laws to protect and advance the same.
It must be remembered that it is the father who first soured relations between the community and that of the Kikuyu with separatist politics and the son is again doing the same with the Kalenjin and dragging the community into it, all in the name of seeking presidency. And now even the people of Coast and Western are drifting away and severing ties with the community and region as a result of the divide-and-rule, revenge (my enemy is your enemy) and dogmatic politics being advanced by the impolitic and unreceptive local leadership and their boss. But again, and with the community’s notoriety for intolerant politics and the local leadership’s fear for democracy that they preach but never practice, who will accommodate a presidential candidate from another region when a very own son of the community was almost killed for ‘running against the tide’ by declaring an interest in the presidency? The same leaders now challenging others to market their presidential bids in the region have themselves extremist vote bloc protectionists there and are the very ones who incited the community to boycott the business services owned by people of a ‘foreign’ community for election theft pain. They have made the community their flock of sheep that they always herd to the slaughterhouse with their provocative and vindictive politics.
It is equally sad that even political analysts and intellectuals from the region have been imprisoned to side with and never find fault with the region’s negative, kingdom-like and master-servant political system and culture despite the ills it has visited on the community and local economy. The consequences of the political actions and reactions for the leaders’ open radicalism, if lessons really are there to be learned, will in turn be felt especially by innocent Luos seeking and in employment and also those operating businesses and owning property across the country.
And who has prevented the leaders from doing now that that they still are promising to do with their election to eyed positions; aren’t they already in power? To ensure economic justice for the region and community, and with respect to their leadership, the local political leadership must, besides fulfilling their pre-election promises, collectively lobby for and work with the relevant ministries to ensure especially the tarmacking of road networks across the region to boost transport services and trade and attract investments, water systems development in all the districts to ensure safe and reliable water availability for domestic use and to promote industrial development and the refurbishment, expansion, staffing and equipment of all the district hospitals in the region and electricity connection to all common centres, and also ensure that government programmes and pre-election promises made for the region become real for the benefit and development of the taxpaying Kenyans there, otherwise it won’t be business as usual this time; money and party won’t determine and guarantee victory but performance and delivery.
Additionally, they should in respect of their representative roles be concerned with and strongly lobby the government to support, address matters affecting and ensure treatment of and funding and availability of extension services and inputs for farmers engaged in the production of especially cotton, sugarcane, rice, maize and tubers, which support the region’s economy and population, equals that enjoyed by farmers in Rift Valley and Central provinces besides ensuring better pricing for their yields and their compensation for crop loss due to natural calamities to promote equality of citizen treatment, boost produce production and ensure better returns on investment by the farmers.
On investment in business which also drags the economy of the region given the obsession with and pride in white-collar jobs common with the community, as can also be seen in experts scrambling for government jobs, some even sacrificing their lucrative careers or closing shop their business ventures, and which given the job demand as a result of the growing national population and competition from the equally growing skilled population have kept declining for lack of investment or lack of expansion of existing ones by locals, needs serious attention and a culture of investment in business to foster economic growth and opportunities for the region and awareness campaigns on the benefits of owning and running a business and self-employment, the do’s and don’ts for capital acquisition and the business opportunities available must be championed by influential local business owners and successful business owners from elsewhere invited to offer inspirational and business guide to open the minds of and inspire the people to find solace in business ventures. Successes in business have been realized and retold often in many parts of the country and abroad and these and interests in the same need to be adopted by the community as a measure and bridge to addressing the challenges of poverty, lack of employment opportunities, and infrastructure and economic development. And it is time the locals brought their wealth and skills in business they boast elsewhere to Luoland to promote and open up the region for diverse investments and inspire others from the community to take up business for which opportunities in real estate development, ICT, entertainment, retail, hospitality, transport service, textile, agriculture, fisheries and food processing ventures exist and remain untapped, and so is in private educational establishments.
If only reason and the brains being wasted in political pursuits could be employed in development and in creating a favourable environment for investment with the leaders themselves investing first to make the region more attractive and secure, Luoland would today have been a model and inspiration of development and with a more empowered populace. It is not enough just like it is an irony for the region to boast educational achievements and influential leaders when glaring realities of poverty, poor infrastructure, declining and unrewarding education performance, disease epidemics and pandemics and totalitarian and nepotistic politics define and keep dominating the news about the region. Change must begin at home and now is the time.
The end justifies the means, it seems to be the gist of Dr. Abonyo’s argument. Raila should expediently tolerate graft in his watch until he is elected president then crack the whip.
That is mistaken strategy. Raila must demonstrate that he has the backbone to part ways even with his closest of confidants if they are suspected of corruption. This Raila did in suspending Ruto. His intentions may be debatable, depending on which side of the political divide you are, but the impact is real. There are very many Kenyans out there that may read hope for the country in that one action.
Finally , I admire the political fire in Dr. Abonyo’s belly, but I would like to appeal to the good doctor to extend his constituency to include the rest of Kenya. Balala and Ruto should not be just Raila’s political pawns but partners in improving the Kenya Nation.!
PLEASE ALSO READ THE COMMENTS FORWARDED BY DR. MATUNDA I THINK THEY MIGHT HELP MANY SEE MY POINT
Friends,
I am sharing this discussion from the Kenyan Scholars and Studies Association (KESSA) list…. See More
These are deep insights.
BTW: I asked the other day thus: if the PM and President confer every week, why wouldn’t action on corruption subjects be part of the discussion; did they have to play the matter out in public as they did?
Read on.
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Dear Sylvanus:
I like your diagnosis.
If I can add to it, I can say this:
In my opinion, the ongoing conversation amongst politicians about corruption in Kenya and their public disagreements on how to end it symptomizes competition for personal political objectives. Given the zero-sum nature of political competitions, the unfolding political drama in Kenya will soon reduce to two competing narratives, the one by the Prime Minister and the other by a cast of characters who are yet to find their center of gravity apart from their united opposition to the PM.
The plotless theme of the PM’s narrative is reform; the themeless plot of the other group is regional cooperation. Ironically, the PM is unwittingly feeding his rivals with material for attacking him and for reinforcing their sense of rightness in their plot. One would imagine a person of the PM’s stature, surrounded by friends like the astute Anyang’ Nyong’o, would know that in political competitions, perception can be as costly as reality itself.
What do voters and observers see instead?
1.. A Prime Minister who plays to the gallery instead of actually governing. He does not behave like one who has transitioned from opposition to government. He didn’t have to publicly call on errant fellow cabinet ministers to resign; there are administrative procedures for dealing with such matters. Even if he had consulted with the other appointing part of the coalition, he didn’t have to go public to announce suspensions of fellow cabinet members.
By violating this simple principle of governing, the PM risked being publicly disobeyed, as he actually was, not because of the objective is wrong but because the method is unacceptable. Human beings desire respect — even when they themselves are disrespectful — and will defend themselves even when they are wrong. By violating this principle, he emboldened his adversaries to publicly call upon him to resign.
2. The second thing that voters and observers see is a coming into shape of political regional cooperation that ultimately will hurt the PM’s political objectives. Remember, the substance of the argument may be on the PM’s side, but we are dealing with the perceptions that he has created out there and how his adversaries are capitalizing on them.
The PM actions, the objectionable methods of their execution notwithstanding, have had the unintended consequences of strengthening regional cooperation of his detractors. For example, soon after he publicly called upon Professor Ongeri, a Gusii, to step aside — Ongeri correctly reminded him that he should follow laid-down procedures for dealing with errant minister and civil servants — Gusii MPs cleverly inducted non-Gusii MPs into issuing a statement calling upon the PM to resign.
3. The third pattern that emerges in this unfolding drama is who’s-who and who’s-from-where (amongst the players). One would expect the PM to be sensitive to who speaks for him. Of course, he may argue that Kenya is a democracy where everybody has a right to say what they want and how they want it. That’s as it OUGHT to be; not as it IS. Transforming leaders start from IS and move populations to OUGHT, not the other way round.
A shrewd political leader, like the PM, would enlist a person with social capital to champion his cause. Instead, great intellectuals with this or that social deficit have spoken on behalf of the PM. Finally, it is not lost to observers that the PM’s defenders in this drama are fellow Luos, and that those who feel threatened by the PM’s actions are non-Luos, irrespective of the merits of the case. For that reason, Ongeri could go to his people and speak them in vernacular, portraying himself as a victim of the PM’s jealousy. Ruto and Balala, both of the Pentagon in the PM’s own ODM, can defy ODM’s call for cabinet boycott while branding the PM a dictator.
All this adds to one thing: the PM’s narrative of reform is a playing into the gallery of foreigners — Americans and Europeans — who don’t vote, even though they give the funds that he purports to protect from theft. By playing into the gallery, he has galvanized his opponents into an amorphous group that’s for now defined by opposition to him. He is also unwittingly alienating the very regions he’ll need in the next elections. Hopefully he knows that individuals are dispensable, communities are not. As nicely as he may play into the gallery, when actual voting comes, he might find himself permanently in the opposition, because he has not learned how to transition to government.
JO
On Tue, Feb 16, 2010 at 11:40 AM, Sylvanus Nacheri wrote:
It seems to me as though the problems in the coalition government have nothing to do with the legal framework upon which the coalition government is based. The problems are instead driven by deeply rooted distrust, hatred and animosties between and within PNU and ODM factions. The problem with the legal framework is that it merely tried to legalize the divisions, animosities, and outright hatred that characterized the campaigns and subsequent electtions of 2007 for the sake of peace! The lesson is, evils are evils, legal or not. The solution to economic, political and social evils is to eradicate them, not legalize them. Common sense suggests, for example, that a coordinator and supervisor reports to someone else or to another entity with power to fire and hire. PNU is, therefore, right on the face of their argument. But because of the deep distrust between the factions, coordination and supervision could be translated to include power to hire and fire! And ODM could be right in the sense that the “two principals” are equal! Anyone knows of a more interesting scenario? All Annan can do if he decides to go there is to find another way to appease the protagonists. Again, for the sake of peace!