Kenyans,
It is that time again of the season and my 10th great grandfather Ragem has appeared to me with the following message;
“No Life can escape being blown about, by the winds of change and chance. And although you never know all the steps, you must learn to join the dance. My son, I empower you to reveal.”

And therefore straight to my predictions I go:

1. PNU affiliated MPs will table a motion to change standing orders and allow the president to appoint leader of Government business. ODM affiliated MPs will lose in opposing the motion to be voted on, but when the vote is done, the motion will not pass.

2. Contrary to current political temperatures, Ruto and Raila will remain in ODM, remain friends and learn to trust each other again.

3. Ocampo’s request to open investigations at the ICC will not be granted due to the evidence not reaching the thresh hold for such cases. Kiplagat will resign as the TJRC. Nothing will happen to the perpetrators of the PEV.

4. The Zamba Kitonga Team will complete its rewriting of the Draft Constitution, and hand it over to Parliament this Thursday. Parliament will pass the draft and okay it for the Referendum. At the referendum the yeas will have it.

5. Once the new constitution is gazetted, a new political dispensation will emerge. In fact it is already taking shape. Watch these characters very closely. Ababu Namwamba, Abdikadir Mohamed, Peter Kenneth, George Luchiri Wajackoyah, Omondi ‘Bunde’ Karoli, Heb Mosomi, Miguna Miguna, Nicholas Oyoo Ochieng, Amason Kingi & Jane Munga. These are our new young Turks. Watch them very closely.

6. As for our old guard, only Raila Odinga, Kalembe Ndile, William Ruto, Danson Buya Mungatana, Uhuru Kenyatta, Kalonzo Musyoka, Henry Kosgey, James Orengo, Charity Ngilu, Omingo Magara, Amos Kimunya, Musalia Mudavadi will remain relevant to the presidential race and surprisingly will be competing against the young Turks.

7. The National Accord & the Grand Coalition Government will collapse before the end of this year.

8. There will be a period of uncertainty and power vacuum following the collapse of the Grand Coalition Government. Once again speaker of the House, Kenneth Marende will save the day by acting as head of Government for 60 days. Contrary to the desire of his kitchen cabinet, Kibaki will not heed the call to run again for the presidency. Lucy will give the press conference.

9. Kenya is headed for a period of conspiracy theories between now and the time the Grand Coalition Government collapses. I could explain more here but desist to avoid creating panic in the nation.

10. Again there will be no outright winner in the next elections due to many alliances formed with no candidate getting 50% + 1 vote, leading to a run off of the top two candidates. There will be neither chaos nor violence however. When the dust settles, we will get a president who is of no surprise at all to many, and yet one who was thought of by the extremists as an impossible improbable possibility.

Now be careful not to call me mad, for when you visit Mathari, you see those inside the fence yelling at you with those words.

—
Joram Ragem
wuod Ndinya, wuod Onam, wuod Amolo, wuod Owuoth, wuod Oganyo, wuod Mumbe, wuod Odongo, wuod Olwande, wuod Adhaya, wuod Ojuodhi, wuod Ragem! (Are you my relative?)