From: Bill
ODM and affiliates as of Jan 2008 had 113 MPs. However:
Less Magara = 112.
Less 26 RV MPs loyal to Ruto = 86.
Less MPs with changed loyalties – Balala(Mvita), Baya(Ganze), Jirongo(Lugari) plus NEP MPs Duale, Chacha Guyo, Ali Mohammed and Mahmoud Mohammed = 7.
Total Hemorrhage = 34 MPs.
Balance of loyal MPs = 79.
PNU/ODM-K and affiliates had 108 MPs as of Jan 2008.
However:
Less MPs with changed/dubious loyalties – Karua, Mungatana, Kabando, Kiunjuri, Wavinya, Mbarire, Imanyara, Kenneth, Mbau, Kiuna, Muturi, Musila, Kiema Kilonzo = 13.
Total Hemorrhage = 13.
Balance loyal MPs = 95.
For ODM:
79 + 13 PNU MPs who may oppose censure = 92.
For PNU:
95 + 34 ODM MPs who may support censure = 129.
MPs required to pass censure motion of no confidence = 113.
Clearly, Raila is on borrowed time.
Bill,
Thank you for the heads up.
Granted that it is probable the PM will face a censure motion, Raila has weighed his options very carefully. Many think or say the PM does not consult or strategize. Well, my intelligent sources say Agwambo is ready for any eventuality as he had promised when dealing with the Mau issue. He is indeed prepared to pay the price, and for him I say bring it on.
If it is percieved that Raila ‘blundered’ by suspending Ruto and Ongeri, the major political blunder in Kenya’s politicl history will occur when and not if the Raila censure motion is done.
My take is that moving a motion of no confidence on the PM is actually a favor from being blamed for failures of the Kibaki era.
Also, the elections are just aroung the corner. Freeing Raila now is actually adding to the head-start he already starts with.
So, whatever move they make, they masi kalikyulate, kalikyulate as kwasa kwasa music aludes.
Joram Ragem
Bill, this is a very insightful analysis of the situation in parliament. However, as Joram says it sits pretty well with the PM’s strategy.
Firstly, previous quantitative analysis has shown that 70% of MP’s are never re-elected in Kenya.This is to say that the current mp’s are toast; they are past their sale by date and are therefore radioactive. RAO knows that keeping a safe distance from them is to his best interest.
Secondly, the focus now should be the mwananchi because he is the employer. By purporting to fire the two monoliths,RAO is telling the voter that he is capable of doing the “impossible” and that no one would be indispensible in his government if he is given the responsibility to be the CEO.
Thirdly, most of these mp’s have no BALLS and would not want to precipitate a situation where election may be called earlier than 2012.
Of what importance is a censure motion to a sitting PM under the national accord?
The law says that a PM shall be the leader of the majority party in the house. It does not say that the PM shall be elected by MPs. So Raila’s position remain intact as long as he continues to be the leader of ODM, and as long as ODM continue to be the party with majority MPs in the house (their loyalty is not important here)
The only way to remove would be if ODM party removes him as the leader in a national party election. OR if some of the ODM MPs defect their by reducing ODM numbers in the house. Not even Ruto can dare defect now.
If Raila is nolonger in govt, what happens to the Coalition? I know he signed the accord on behalf of ODM,
Stanslaus, thank you for capturing the sense of the actual situation and not the opinion of various political “quacks” ( the Bills and Ngunyis) who are all over the place vomiting opinions ( PM on borrowed time etc etc) that have no basis. Contrary to these opinions the PM is stronger today than he was a month ago. There will be no vote-of-no-confidence against the PM for the simple reason that all may head home including the occupant of that comfortable house-on-the-hill. After removing Ruto and allies from the powerful HBC, next ODM will reconstruct the house commitees by weeding out all the undesirables. More power to the base! Did you see the polls? ODM is still the party to watch. Corruption is Kenyans most concern and who do they think is most trusted to tackle the job? Rather obvious! They attempted to give the Muranga sourjourn by the PM a blackout but facts on the ground can never be twisted. Another score. Now comes PDM “Tai” or is it “Thai”. Watch this animal struggle to walk in the coming months. Meanwhile Matuga is the next point of vocus ( or is it Ocampo?) but some of us already know the outcome. In short Bill,watch the signs of the times and read them correctly. Indeed interesting times but only one politician seems to read the peoples desires correctly. As for those Kalenjin greenhorns in paliament, they are of no consequence to ODM out there in RV, only relevant in paliament and only for a short short time.