By MAKAU MUTUA
Every Kenyan knows that Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the centre of gravity of the country’s politics. He is at the top of the news every day. When he sneezes, his political opponents catch a cold. If Mr Odinga goes left, his opponents head right. If he says that Mt Kenya is in Central Province, his detractors find a way to argue that the famous landscape is in Nyanza. Mr Odinga possesses such dominant political mystique that he should, by now, have become president. But yet the son of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the doyen of Kenya’s opposition politics, remains an outsider looking in. Is it a family curse, or will Mr Odinga finally get to the mountain top in 2012? No other senior political figure has laboured more tirelessly, or borne the brunt of state repression, more intensely than Mr Odinga.
The man has more than paid his dues in the quest for reform. Even so, the spoils of the state have time and again gone to lesser mortals who have played it safe. In 1997 and 2007, Mr Odinga toiled valiantly in the vineyards of presidential elections only to come out empty. But he believes that he was robbed in 2007. However, that is now water under the proverbial bridge. The question is whether Kenyans will recognise Mr Odinga’s character, sacrifice, and leadership acumen to hand him the keys to the State House in 2012. My crystal ball tells me that Mr Odinga has a tough slog ahead. He is a prince — by virtue of his pedigree — but he is an outsider-insider.
He “should” belong to the cabal of the traditional ruling elite, but he doesn’t. His Achilles’ heel is his innate proclivity to reform the conservative Kenyan state and “spread the wealth’’. The anchors of Kenya’s conservative ruling elite — the Kenyattas, the Mois, and the Kibakis, and their political and biological children — have sworn to keep him in the political wilderness. The conservative heir apparents to the throne — Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Ministers William Ruto, Uhuru Kenyatta and George Saitoti — are determined to cut off Mr Odinga at the knees.
If you doubt me, just look at the kitchen sink approach of the PNU or PDM — take your pick! The conservative ruling cabal — which believes it “owns” the state — is throwing everything at Mr Odinga in the hope that something will stick. It has even deployed political minnows and novices against him. That’s why Jimmy Kibaki, a prince not known for the alacrity of his political mind, feels compelled to launch attacks against Mr Odinga under the guise of Simama Kenya. You can be sure that Mr Jimmy Kibaki will attempt to step into his father’s shoes in Othaya in 2012 to perpetuate the legacy of conservatism in Kenya.
The big question is whether Kenyans have seen through the charade of the ruling conservatives and are prepared to give an outsider a chance. Mr Odinga is not a complete outsider. He is rather an insider-outsider. He is an insider by class and pedigree, but an outsider by political history and ideology. He carries the “baggage” of political populism and the legacy of struggle for reform. This is what makes him unpalatable to conservatives. The “filthy” rich believe that Mr Odinga will not safeguard their vested interests. They are deathly scared of land reform, genuine investigations into human rights abuses and economic crimes. If I were Mr Odinga, I would be most concerned about the tribalisation of the 2012 elections.
Mr Odinga will have a nearly impossible task if the PDM folks manage to stick together under the KKK alliance. A solid tribal coalition of the Kikuyu, Kamba and Kalenjin would be difficult to beat. Mr Odinga would then only have the Luo and the Luhya to rely on, and it is not clear he could count on the solid backing of the Luhya. That’s why he must change the basis for the 2012 elections from “tribe” to “policies”. Mr Odinga will likely lose the election if he runs as the head of a tribal coalition. He must run as the nominee of a “Kenyan” political party that is concerned with the welfare of Kenyans. It remains to be seen whether the big egos of Mr Musyoka, Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and Mr Saitoti can agree who among them will be the flag bearer.
Mr Kenyatta poses obvious risks because Kenyans may be unwilling to vote for a Kikuyu after Mr Kibaki. Mr Saitoti, who doubles as a Kikuyu-Maasai, would be intriguing, but is a dour campaigner and personality. Mr Ruto, the most junior among this group, is the riskiest because of allegations linking him to the post-election violence and his polarising character.
Mr Musyoka may be their best bet, but he lacks political gravitas to go toe to toe with Mr Odinga.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.
Raila AmoloOdinga believes in hardworking and if hardworking can pay a man, why not Agwambo? The only thing that makes me happy is the fact that Raila is my President. May the Lord God give Raila and family wealth, health and love!!!!!!
But I thought once you are 65 u cannot be a president?
Definately yes.He is destined for that seat in 2012 my comrades.
Raila Amolo Odinga,should and will be the next President, who else should occupy the seat? Ati you say Kalonzo,the one from Eastern and related to the current occupiers of the seat,the one of 25 years as an MP and not much on the ground-NO, NAY, the presidency cannot come from central then to Eastern.Let him clear with Ngilu first.
Uhuru? Not yet. Ruto of Rift valley only-NO.
Then dont you think TINGA automatically qualifies the big seat. YES.
Agwambo is unstoppable.surely the seat is his come 2012.Raila’s contribution to Kenya’s democracy is indisputable.Even kenyans from different tribal divides have realized that.the Almighty and the spirits of my ancestors have all welcomed you to state house in 2012.It will the time for you to pick your stolen victory.
Kenyans are wish enuogh to identify is worthy to lead, we need sober-minded politics, politics of ideology not of tribal alliances, egocentrism and medeocrity. Raila Amollo Odinga is the leader who can change the face of this nation. Jakom go for it!.
2007 was there and never made it… Day dreamers will always be there for 2012… But if wish were horses….ODM is made of hypocrates of the highest level… Wait, ur thinking u ar digging the pit for the ruling elites but u will definately enter and be buried in those holes… so be carefull
No any other than Raila anayefigtier haki za wakenya wote haki i pray for u 2 b the best president never found in Kenya and may God give u wisdom
Raila is a truthful servant leader and we Kenyans have seen,we are not blind and we will never fight again.He is the only leader we can trust in all corners of our beloved Kenya. Keep the spirit do not tire we are solidly behind you
Keep it up Mr,Makau,I have always been swallowed by your sweet comments in our sunday dalies about politics in Kenya.
Mr.Odinga is trully our next president come 2012.
I honour our prime minister for the great and chances that we citizens we want to make the coming forth genaral e-lection.Due to his intelence and entegreaty plus his reform every kenyan is ready to give out his/her vote to our beloved and the only man of people Mr Raila Omolo Tinga
After his effort of giving kenyans new constutuation by figthing with water melons and curl prits like RUTO,KALONZO and others which i can not mention. Please congratulation for good job MR RAILA but remember after swearing in as our of state create jobs for yuoths as of appreciation.
Mostly the Luyha people are behind you nevertheless we want change as the president of the world did [the respected man from kogolo BARAK OBAMA]
This is your chane sir , don’t be denied with ant-reform eg WATER MELON
Raila cannot rule kenya,
He has made everyone his enemy,
Including Kenya it self,
He is too selfish and money angry
Raila is A statesman by Excellence ! PM of peace ! And anation Lover of Hope so when we put all his records together for example democracy & human right fighter we dream of A president of the people of kenya who will & mind kenyan in jail as well as his people come 2012.
he has tried,if their is something that can make me denier him my vote definitely i do not see.Come 2012 ill say let the man of the people have it.Remember that what is stolen from you shall be given back to when the hour comes.
raila is not only kenya president but also in all africa,God bless raila God bless Afric
Raila baba its your turn do or die,count my vote already in the ballot box.God bless this Hero.
There should be no excuses coz an inteligent person and also a good reformer requires a thumb. So to me he is the man to beat.
Raila Amollo Odinga is actually the Kenya’s President. Most politicians are fighting him because of their selfish motives. They actually have no substantiated reason for telling Kenyans that Raila is not the best candidate. Come 2012, my vote goes to RAILA. God bless Raila, God bless Kenya.
If Kenya was another state of America Raila could be retiring as its 4th senator now.Unfortunately Kenya is full of ethnic chauvinist.who look at thinks with tribal eye.that is why Raila is going for his 3rd attempt.while obama is contemplating to retire or try his last round.Obama unlike Raila happened to take on the presidency of USA which some tribal chiefs like karua,uhuru have never believed or acknowledged that the US president is Obama with luo roots of Kenya.
The President of the Majestic people of kenya His Excellency Raila Amolo Odinga Must Open the door of real Jobs to our Youths& this should target 90% OF kenya youths and the youths failure to comply must go to village ealders to explain their grounds.Raila’s second term in the office is atrue gift to our Nation where all men have love to their republic Raila douze is automatic!
Raila cannot make it come 2012 how comes he turned against the kalenjin who voted for him in the last election. i have never seen such an ungrateful person like him imagine him announcing that he had sacked ruto were it not for the intervention of kibaki. i would say that raila may be popular in the country but not popular in running for the presidency. let him give us good reasons but not empty promises…………………………
Raila alipenda kenya x3 Aka fungwa!
It means that what he chamioned for bear fruits now! All that are against him either swiming in the Glass of Chang’aa or Mashiwa Mala and you know the reason why God is on his side is beacause of his love of the nation!
Raila has chanpioned many kenyans
Raila is the man to see in upcoming general election 2012
2002 KIBAKI TOSHA 2007 KIBAKI ALIUWA WATU ?MUNGIKI AKAUWATU WAKENYA?
MUNGIKI NA KIBAKI PNU=kkk kill kill kill SPONSORED BY STATE HOUSE TO GRABBE POWER FROM THE PEOPLE NOW THEY ARE GADDAFI SEVEN AND GADDAFI IS DEAD AND SO TELL KALONZO TO REPENT NOW.HEAVEN KNOWS THAT RAILA MUST RULE COME 2012 NO TURNING BACK.
Make way make way for the tyrant king . this man is no leader if tom mboya was alive then definatley him but this engineer will destroy this wonderful country rather than build it , heed the warning and if he succeeds he will utterly destroy our kenya im sorry but it is true he will kill innocent men and women and children , take what is not his but he will not survive for long . he will be remembered as the tribalist that almost destroyed kenya..
Honestly speaking,in the history of kenyan politics,there has never been a time some group of people are determined to stop a presidential candidate.Right now the G7 might not show as one..but come back to me next year few months to elections…schock on ODM the kind of alliance that will be formed aganaist them with astound them,i will advice Raila to retire in politics in Dignity.And give someone else a chance if he want ODM to be in power in 2012.
Philip,
Take it to bank that come 2012 kenyan shall re stand with The peoples president because in him there is true democracy.Its we kenyan duty bond to kill the culture of impunity by offering Raila a clean game to separate the Nyakwa regime&pure democracy.A gwambo has nothing to tell kenyan for kenya knows what they themselves want.Raila has chosen Malindi to be his home after election because the state house belongs to Regimes&Holly lucifer that must be destroyed.Stop speaking of the Gadafi seven.Gaddafi was atrue murderer that his angels in kenya should not spread his gospel in our nation.To hague with G7-Raila loves democracy and would have minded to win areal election man to man but the criminals with ill gotten wealth scared of democracy& new constitution has to go Hague in peace we are as well fedup tobe vague_OPADO
Good e’ving Raisi Raila?U’re te man 4 tis yr’s presidency.shikilia hapo.
Every person should be judged from what he or she has participated and established in the past.Raila Odinga siut the pack.
RAILA ODINGA HAS AN EYE ON NOTHING BUT STATE HOUSE.A TIME HAS COME THAT ALL YOUTHS MUST GO TO WORK COUNTRY WIDE.WE ODM SHALL NOT ALLOW OUR OWN YOUTHS TO BE USED BY MUNGIKI OR KIBAKI SEVEN FOR OCAMPO SIX IS DEAD.WE HAVE AWORKING METHOD THAT OFFERS YOUTHS NOTHING BUT ABETTER FUTURE BEFORE ELECTIVE LEADERSHIP AND THIS IS ABETTER NEWS TO THE FAMILY AT LARGE BECAUSE WE MUST LEARN TO SHARE ALL.RAILA HAVE POWER TO OFFER LIGHT TO OUR YOUTHS. ALL YOUTH MUST GO TO ALL ODM OFFICE THERE COUNCILLING&GUIDING OFFICERS TO HELP YOUTHS
JOIN RAILA IN NATION BUILDING ODM BELIEVES THAT KENYA IS BIGGER THAN RAILA EVEN IF THE LOVE RAILA HAVE4 KENYA IS MUCH BIGGER AND ITS AS PER THAT REASON THAT YOUTHS WITH OR WITHOUT SCHOOL DIPLOMA ARE FREE TO GO TO ODM OFFICE IN THEIR COUNTY FOR ADVISE-HAPPY NEW YEAR !!THIS IS OUR YEAR SO LET US WISH OURSELVES PEACE ,HEALTH,WEALTH,LOVE,POWER AND HAPPINESS !!A CHANGE WE OFER WITH RAILA DINGA FOR LONG LIFE.
LONG LIFE KENYA LONG LIFE RAILA ODINGA AND LONG LIFE ODM ACHANGE WE NEED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!-OPADO
If Kenyans are to be idea-minded then Tinga will softly recieve the KEYS.If tribal minded then 2012 marks Odinga’s exit from active politics.
WHAT EVERY ONE IS SAYING SHOULD BE THE CASE HE SHOULD BE THE 2ND PRIME MINISTER OF KENYA TO HAVE BECOME THE PRESIDENT AND IMPLIMENT THE CONSTITUTION THAT WE PASSED.
BUT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN,ALL SUPPORTERS MUST HAVE VOTING CARDS AND TRY AND REACH OUT TO NON SUPPORTERS AND THE UNDECIDED VOTERS . MORE LIKE GETTING YOUR COMPETITOR’S CLIENTS TO USE YOUR FIRM.
LETS DO IT BY VOTING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! VERY IMPORTANT
i will not vote for him, i will vote for uhuru BUT May the LORD God decide who is the best nd the next president of Kenya. i rest my case
Raila is the man he is feared for his stand against the rich,corrupt and power barons of this land.atleast where kenya has reached even if Raila does not become president Kenya has made a big change in constitutional matters.so weather Raila fails or win we have nothing to loose although we hope he ins to allow him complete his reforms
The quick answer to your Question is ” NO. NEVER, EVER” Will Raila see the Presidency of Kenya. A traitor by self admission and a man who tried to over throw the Govt just to quench his thirst for power, will never see the presidency. He will follow the footsteps of his father (God rest his soul) who ran, labored and tried every trick in the book to be president but it eluded him. He is a puppet of the west world and that is what he will always be. A puppy that will always be told jump it jumps, roll over, he rolls, fetch, he takes of. Only to come back and get his ears tickled …. to the music sit boo boo sit…good dog. Unlike Uhuru who was a pair and does not mind standing for something.
He remains a kenyan darling!Kenyan peoples President at Heart and a State man by Excellency.Raila Amolo Odinga means well for our Republic of Kenya that Our Citizen deserves A dissent life so thugs,criminals,pickpocketers,Moneylaunders,Drugtrafficers,Landgrabbers are trying to change their games tricks invain for they run scared.His good over Bad.
Kenya are serious they knows where they coming from and where they are today!
We stand a true leader that makes the Nation one that offers social life to all kenya and that leader is no-one elses but Rais wetu Agwambo Odinga for whole country has decided that He Raila Tosha!Opado
Raila tosha!!!!!!
let God help us to choose the right president of our country Kenya.Lets stop tribalism n pray hard then Gods not deaf.He will definitely give us an answer.
Raila’s chances of clinching the presidency are minimal because there is a lot of hostility towards him. it is unlikely that he will win the Central kenya, ukambani, Luyia land( Mudavadi factor) and Kalenjin nation vote.
Raila will be the presidet of Kneya .He will win by over 55% against his rivals.
I hope that this time RAO will win the elections whether it is this year or next year. Amolo is the man to watch, God open ways for him and let waninchi decide this time the way they did in 2007, God bless Kenya.
Recently we saw the snake shed off its skin from KANU to TNA, well i think the gods are with Agwambo this time after the stolen victory in 2007. For those in the dark, TNA simply means Tuko Na Agwambo! Death to the snakes.
Every kenyan should see this thing.When God chose M osses,he was taken to king` Pharao`s palace to train,because Raila has been in opposition for long`,God took made him to partner Kibaki to train him on how to lead.Now he is more trained than ever before.God has finished.kenyans what are we waitting for?Lets vote Raila.
Let Kenyans not to be distracted with outrageous allegetions made by likes of Miguna Miguna about RAO.For us realise the fruits of this new Katiba,let us give him a chance to implement this very important document ,than trusting this document by people like Kalonzo Musyoka.Tribalism aside vote Rao he has what it take to lead Kenya now.Agallo Abik Daystar University
If we don’t want to make any mistake this round in electing right leaders with good track record of reform credentials and passion for the new Katiba,we should not fail to vote Rao as the next preso come 4th-Mar-2012 Forget about a bitter person by name miguna who is expressing tirades in late in the day to derail us from seeing the good side of Rao.To hell with Miguna! Agallo Abik Athi River
Kenyans are required to be very keen to choose the right president of their country by considering records of each candidate but all in all Raila yuko juu kitaifa hata kimataifa so let Us vote for Agwambo becaues He brought great changes in Kenya politically and even socially!.Like tanzanias We are waiting for that wonderfull moment for kenyans!.Jamani safari hii sisi kama majirani zenu hatutaki kuona tena vurugu kwenu Kenya, pigeni kura kwa amani na muepuke kura za kikabila kama mlivyofanya kwenye uchaguzi uliopita!,MUITENDEE DEMOKRASIA HAKI KAMA MLIVYO FANYA KIPINDI KILEE, ILA KUSITOKEE UWIZI WA KURA TENA.MUNGU AIBARIKI KENYA PAMOJA NA WANANCHI WAKE!
The political wave in America should obvious tells us, that Raila is the best man for the Job, lets not deny him job.
student head -Cape town-SA