A few months ago, Ruto hosted a packed fund raiser at the Pan Afric Hotel for the alleged victims of Mau forest. Those at the high table spoke of a new political movement in the making, one which will bring change to the people of Kenya. As they threw jabs at their political common enemy then, they urged those absent at the meeting to join their cause or risk being left out. It was a meeting that gave William Ruto a false feeling of jubilation. He was already on a collision course with his party boss, who was the brain behind the Mau eviction. It was all ‘system go’ as Ruto and his Rift valley allies mobilized crowds against Raila and all that he stood for in Rift valley.

His plans received a wide boost when PNU politicians keen to scuttle ODM joined hands with him, showering him with praises as they mooted a new alliance, short of a re birth of KANU.

Time was right, he thought. He had graduated to big boys’ political league and he could now throw punches at all shadows that crossed his path. Riding high on the ceremonial land rover with the president in Eldoret recently further left Ruto mesmerized, believing he was destined for even bigger things, as his foot soldiers continuously showered him with good words. Indeed, he had assembled an army to fight his cause, and it was just a matter of of time before Ruto’s young turks romped home in victory, we were told by hordes of careless speakers who surrounded him. Even Jimi Kibaki, aka simama Kenya joined the entourage to drum support for Ruto.

But he got it all wrong. There are no permanent friends or enemies in politics. He soon realized that in politics, even close friends can desert you in the hour of need, particularly when it means putting their own lives on the crossing line.

Ruto has been floating on very thin air and it was just a matter of time before he came scuttling down the ground like a heap.

To begin with, Ruto has been surrounded by political amateurs, people who draw huge crowds not because of the substance of their leadership or speech, but because of their ‘vitimbi style’ politics. People starved of drama and other forms of entertainment will always show up because they expect full drama when the like of Hon Kituny is listed as a guest speaker.

In defiance and a further attempt to pull the rag under the PM’S feet, Hon Ruto must have been under the impression that that his opposition to the draft would receive the blessings of the president and by extension, take with him the entire central province. He was made to believe that both individuals (Kibaki vs. Raila) would take different approach to the constitution, owing to a well known stained relation between them. He was just waiting on the sideline to benefit on fallout, against his new found enemy-Raila.

Ruto could have been drumming the “yes” call had Raila chosen to oppose the draft. Why? Our politics is not over ideals but personality contest. Here was a golden opportunity for him to marshal his troops against Raila and beat him in an open contest. He knew the game, and took for granted that the Triple K support was flowing towards him, a new centre of power.

But why did Kibaki and others outwit Ruto? The present constitution is a superior hybrid of the 2005 draft which the president threw his weight behind. With time running out for the president, he wanted to proudly present the nation with a constitution, taking his name into the history books as a president who championed for a modern constitution. The president is no fool too. The mood on the ground has changed since the 2007 bloody elections, and Kenyans are no longer eager for confrontational politics. With many Kenyans rooting for a new constitution, and taking into consideration time and chunks of money already used in the process, it is more likely most Kenyans will be voting for a new constitution.

You may be asking why Musyoka and Uhuru failed to rally behind Ruto, as allies in the triple K movement.

Let me begin with Uhuru, who has chosen a middle ground. Rift valley still has strong pockets faithful to Kanu, and Uhuru Kenyatta is the party chairman. They are keen to dislodge Uhuru from the party, leaving him vulnerable in the region come 2012. On the other hand, Uhuru has eyes set of the ragging succession politics in central province, upon the exit of Kibaki. He is torn between being loyal to Kanu and showing allegiance to central province. It is just natural for the man to sit on the fence to save his skin in politics.

Musyoka on the other hand has shown very lukewarm support for the draft. Initially, he had chosen the path of Ruto, calling upon Kenyans to reject the draft if it was not amended. His position as VP and dreams to succeed Kibaki can only be sustained if he supports the president wholly, with a rug over his face. He has no choice but to follow the president blindly, even if it means going against his conscience or risk being tossed over as a VP.

Ruto failed to read the signs on the ground, choosing to go alone. He will go into history as a lone ranger who opposed the draft constitution which everybody thought was right and when the time was just right. Whether his actions are motivated by principles or egocentric drive for power, only time will tell. It will be hard for him to regain lost ground after the referendum, should he loose the contest.

Patrick Opondi,

Jope Pacho, Migori.