NEWS Analysis by Leo Odera Omolo In Rongo Town.
The forthcoming by-election in South Mugirango is expected to be a litmus test for the Orange Democratic Movement {ODM},the party which is perceived to be having more following in the constituency.
The dagger is drawn for the By-election which is scheduled for June 10,2010 and this time round the residents says they expect the Interim Electoral Commission of Kenya will do its best to ensure that it is not flawed.
The event of the last few days, however, are signaling the signs of confusion. Omingo Magara one of the leading contenders for the seat did not show up at the Orange House last Thursday to collect his nomination paper, sending the strong rumor in the area that the former South Mugirango legislator, who is also the national treasurer of the party, has defected and would be seeking the nomination on another party’s ticket.
Other information making the round were that Omingo Magara had lost his younger brother Titus Magara, who died on Wednesday, and as such was held up at home on serious family matter. So he could not have managed to travel to Nairobi the following day in order to beat the party’s deadline for those intending to contest the by-election on the party’s ticket to collect their nomination papers.
The deadline, was however, extended from Thursday to Sunday evening by the party board of election, which is headed by Eng Phillip Okoth Okundi as its chairman and Dr. Joseph Misoi as its secretary. And Magara was still expected to visit the Orange House during the extended deadline to pick up his nomination papers.
The by-election in South Mugirango this time round is expected to take different political dimension, with clan politics likely to take the center stage. If the election campaign takes the direction of clan rivalries, then political parties will be rendered impotent, irrelevant and useless.
This agriculturally rich rural constituency has two major competing clans and numerous smaller sub-clans. The major clans are Bosinange and Botabori. Magara belong to Botabori clan, while his other credible opponent Ibrahim Ochoi, the former Uriri Secondary School Principal is a member of Botabori clans. Both Magara and Ochoi are the two leading contenders.
But Magara has one weakness on the ground. That is the lack of track record for initiating any tangible development project to his credit ever since he stepped into the shoes of his late younger brother Nyakieya Magara, a populist former Kisii lawyer who had won the seat on a Ford Peoples party ticket in 2002. But he died in a road accident after representing the area for a brief period of two years.
Omingo Magara, who was then a civil servant with obscure political background, resigned from the public service, contested in the by-election and won popular votes. But it did not take long before Magara burned the bridges with Simeon Nyachae, the Ford Peoples party boss, man who had vigorously campaigned for him.
Magara then joined Raila Odinga’s ODM Bandwagon after ditching Nyachae’s party and was re-elected to Parliament in 2007. Magara, however developed cold feet towards Raila Odinga soon after the formation of the grand coalition in what was suspected that Raila Odinga’s mistake for not appointing him to a full cabinet position. Instead Raila brought on board Chris Mogere Obure, the Bobbasi MP and the former Minister in Moi’s last KANU regime, who had just crossed from KANU to ODM. Magara felt he was the senior most party official from the Gusii region and such he deserved a full cabinet position.
Although Magara was made an Assistant Minister for Trade, he appeared to have become disillusioned and stopped his previous defense of Raila whenever “Agwambo” came under attack from other quarters. He started flirtation with the Eldoret North MP William Ruto quarters as he used to do.
But the disagreement between the two burst into the open during the campaign in the Bomachoge By-election after the area MP Joel Onyancha had his election nullified by the High court at Kisii. The entire ODM national office went to Southern Kisii and vigorously campaigned for Simon Ogari, who eventually beat Onyancha who had down and robbed the PNU of one of its vital seat in Gusii region. Magara, who was expected to lead the ODM campaign, declined to do so.
On one particular occasion, while Raila Odinga and other party officials from the headquarters and local MPs from Abagusii community came out in full force and attended the largest campaign rally at Kenyenya District headquarters in the neighboring Bomachoge constituency, Magara was hosting William Ruto with close to 12 Kalenjin MPs from the Rift Valley in his South Mugirango constituency, only a few kilometers from the rally venue. Raila was made to be aware of the Magara-Ruto function in the neighborhood, but he steered clear of making any reference. The ODM clinched the Bomachoge seat.
And from that on South Mugirango constituency became awash with rumor that Magara had already ditched Raila Odinga and that the two ODM supremos had parted the company in the same fashion and style he had burned his bridges with Nyachae before crossing into the ODM.
Magara stands very little chance of winning the South Mugirango seat on another party ticket. And by doing so he would be digging his own political grave. The area is an ODM stronghold.
Manson Nyamweya, the man who had petitioned the court agaist Magara is also in the race, but on a Ford People party. He had contested the election in 2007 on the same ticket, but performed poorly. And he is expected not to improve much, due to the reported allegation that his popularity has waned drastically, and lack of physical backing by the Ford People leadership. However, this time around there is a strong rumor that Nyachae intend to contest the Gusii region’s Senate seat. Perhaps this could force him come out and address a few rallies in favor of Nyamweya that could turn things upside down for Magara and other aspirants, due to the fact that Nyachae is still highly respected by the majority of the Abagusii people.
The popularity of the ODM in South Mugirango could easily be assessed by the largest number of aspirants seeking the party ticket for nomination to contest the seat. Its ticket as attracted the largest number of contestants.
Among the aspirants who had already taken the ODM nomination papers include Ibrahim Ochoi, the retired High School Principal and the man who is expected to give Magara a run for his money, David Moreka, a university lecturer, Kepher Marube, the KNUT Executive Secretary in Gucha branch, Zebedeo Nyaboga, a retired educator, Henry Nyabuto Ogeto and a youthful Kisii lawyer David Okachi.
Other potential candidates include Manson Nyamweya [Ford Peoples] John Ondora[KANU] Ezekiel Okengo [Narc Kenya] Rashid Miyonga {PNU} and the former one time area MP David Kombo [Ford-Kenya}.
SOUTH Mugirango is bordering several constituencies like Rongo to the southwest Bonchari to the North, Bobassi to the Northeast ,Bomachoge to the South and Kilogirs West to the SouthEast.The constituency is the one hosting the famous Kisii soapstone carvings, which are attract tourists and commonly found in Hotels the world over. The soapstone mines are located near Tabaka Roman Catholic Mission Hospital. It is rich in sugarcane production, coffee, tea, maize and other cash crops.
The area is also prone to cattle rustling due to its proximity the Kisii –Maasai and Kisii -Luo borders. And thus the ever presence of the outlawed ‘Chinkororo “militia youths.
Issues likely to dominate the election campaign in the area include CDF, poor roads and infrastructure. Laxity on the part of the former MP Magara and his alleged poor relations with the electorate, th9ugh he plays the blame games, saying it is the case of some Minister from Nyanza ganging u against him
Ends