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By MAORE ITHULA

That President Kibaki is headed for retirement in 2012 when his second term expires is not in doubt, but the reality may be a hard pill for many Meru voters.

During an interview with a cross-section of leaders from the region last week, The Standard on Sunday established the situation on the ground is that of uncertainty, and most MPs prefer to remain silent on many national issues for political self-preservation.

Njuri Ncheke Council of Elders Chairman Paul M’Ethingia concedes residents are politically confused.

Due to this, he says, the council is taking steps to give the community direction in time for the 2012 General Election.

“Yes, there is political uncertainty and we are meeting to map out a strategy. Even now, I’m in a meeting and cannot make detailed comments on this issue until we are through with consultations.”

Mr Phares Ruteere, the council’s secretary, says the elders are working round the clock in search of a way forward.

Voting pattern

Ruteere says: “Yes, it is true that people from this area are like headless chicken now that Kibaki is retiring. Everybody is on his/her own. Anybody with a national outlook can get votes from the larger Meru today. After 10 years, I’m sure people will vote with their conscience come the next General Election.”

Traditionally, the council has always leaned towards the Government. Even during the Kanu era, when Kibaki’s DP had the Meru region as its political bedrock, Njuri Ncheke elders could not sway voting pattern.

While it is widely believed the Ameru always vote with their Kikuyu cousins, leaders from the area say Meru voters have always had a soft spot for Kibaki and not any politician from Central Province can win their support. Tigania West MP Kilemi Mwiria, who is also Education Assistant Minister, sees the situation a little differently. He says the Meru electorate will obviously vote with their conscience and none of the presidential aspirants — Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta — can get majority vote from the region.

“It is clear people of this region are actually in political disorder. In the prevailing situation, each of the three top contenders (Raila, Uhuru and Kalonzo) have a significant fraction of sympathisers. However, I cannot say which one among them would be a clear winner if elections were called today. Come 2012, the outcome will be determined by how each of them will conduct their campaigns.”

Former Tharaka MP Murago Mwenda is confident Raila will take the Tharaka vote.

He says: “I have been watching politics of Meru and Central Province alliances for a long time. Ameru are always taken for granted by Central politics. Apart from Imenti, I do not think there is a Mumeru who will vote alongside Central Province in future. Actually, Mt Kenya becomes flat every time there is a political issue affecting our cousins. But when there is something beneficial, the mountain grows tall to separate the two communities. This must end.”

Former Igembe MP Joseph Muturia says Meru voters have always supported Kibaki because he is “an admirable neighbour”.

Rights activist-cum-politician Thiakunu Mwirabua of Ntonyiri constituency agrees. He says residents of the larger Meru are likely to be uncomfortable with voting even for Uhuru Kenyatta.

The medic says: “Uhuru is from the same region as Kibaki. However, I do not think he will inherit Kibaki votes from this area come the next elections.”

Mr Cyprian Kubai, a retired banker and businessman, concurs. Says Kubai: “I dare say Kibaki’s votes will be taken by Prime Minister Raila Odinga at least if elections are called today. My view is borne out of sheer reality rather than partisan politics because I’m a local businessman who meets people regularly.”

Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara is even bolder. He says although he does not necessarily believe Raila will be the most popular in the area come 2012, the PM is the person to beat for presidential votes in Meru.

However, Imanyara goes further to point out although the Ameru are politically lonely for entirely different reasons, central Kenya voters are equally forlorn because it is clear none of their own will make it to State House in the next polls.

Political landscape

Says Imanyara: “People from this region did not vote for Kibaki because he is a Kikuyu. They did so for the person. Otherwise, why did they not vote for Kenneth Matiba as a bloc in 1992 when it was the case in Central?”

Lawyer David Pius Mugambi, a former Imenti South parliamentary candidate, says for the first time, people from the region have changed their mindset to support a person from a different region.

Says he: “From my observation, I have established that the youth are changing the political landscape in Meru. If Raila’s name will be on the ballot paper on the presidential slot in the next elections, people from this area will vote for him.”

Mugambi cites Raila’s tour of Meru last month as an indication of growing support for the PM.