Reports Leo Odera Omolo in Kisumu City
NINE months to the 2011 elections, political parties are scrambling to win the Buganda vote.
The rush has become more complex with the refusal of the Democratic Party to join the inter-party cooperation (IPC), a loose alliance of opposition parties that are preparing to front a joint presidential candidate.
Strategists in the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), IPC and DP have been plotting to position candidates in several constituencies within Buganda.
WHY BUGANDA?
Several parliamentarians have told Saturday Vision that the Buganda vote is crucial for any party to win the presidential election and to become influential in parliament.
“Buganda is to any political party what Ohio is to candidates aspiring to be American presidents,” Kyadondo South MP and DP treasurer Issa Kikungwe remarked.
Several politicians from Buganda believe that with Museveni likely to take the west and southeast, Mao likely to take north and FDC likely to take parts of the east, the Buganda vote might determine the winner.
Buganda is also seen as being central a factor in determining the political stability of the country as it is the centre of economic activities.
The parties under the inter-parties cooperation have been promising federo, hoping this will sway voters against the NRM. The Democratic Party is also in support of federo.
The inter-party cooperation is planning to visit the Kabaka on June 9, 2010. The meeting dubbed ‘courtesy call to the Kabaka’ will discuss ways of getting support from Mengo for the IPC flag-bearer in the presidential elections.
DP FACTOR
However, DP, the most dominant opposition party in Buganda, this week announced that they will not join IPC. After a two-day retreat, the DP’s national executive committee argued that past alliances had weakened rather than strengthened it.
They, however, decided that if no single party wins the election with 50% or more, then they will ally with other opposition parties in the re-run.
An inside source told Saturday Vision that from day one of the retreat, members of the party’s executive were divided over the decision whether to join the IPC.
According to the source, key issues that delayed the decision include the split within the party, and what would happen with the DP party president if he was not elected the joint opposition flag bearer. For years, DP has boasted as the oldest, most diplomatic and influential political party.
This was even after its presence in Buganda failed to register the party’s success in the 1996, 2001 and 2006 elections both presidential and parliamentary save for a few seats the party has in the 8th parliament.
The FDC national chairman, Sam Njuba has warned that unless DP accepts to work with other opposition parties in the forthcoming elections, it may not even retain the few seats it has in the house.
DP currently has nine MPs, making it the third strongest party after NRM and FDC. DP parliamentarians include Joseph Balikuddembe (Busiro South), Issa Kikungwe (Kyaddondo South), Lulume Bayiga (Buikwe East), Erias Lukwago (Kampala Central) and Matia Nsubuga, among others.
But the party plans to boost its strength by wooing independent MPs in various constituencies within Buganda and other regions to join the oldest party. “We are going to equip them with techniques for guarding votes and train them on political will for the party.
We shall also equip them with campaign materials that speak and address issues for Buganda,” Kikungwe said.
In Buganda, the party has enjoyed support though it still lags behind NRM.
But the party has been hit by internal wrangles. “While the IPC has missed the seal of the coalition by DP and PPP refusing to join, the NRM ruling party will eventually benefit from the failure of the parties to unite ahead of the 2011 elections,” one of the FDC MPs said.
There is a possibility that the second faction of DP might go ahead and ally with IPC. This would be bad for Mao’s faction since the other faction has some of the most influential DP members.
The faction has names like Betty Namboze and Lulume Bayiga. Several Mengo officials are also sympathetic to the Lulume-Namboze faction.
Like other opposition parties, DP strategists hope to capitalise on the standoff between the central government and Mengo. But they would be naïve to think this will automatically turn voters against the ruling party.
NRM STRATEGY
Since 2001, the NRM has enjoyed an overwhelming wins in Buganda in both presidential and parliamentary elections. To make a dramatic change in 2011 would require a master stroke.
The NRM deputy spokesperson, Ofwono Opondo, argues that what is perceived as a standoff is only a misunderstanding between the ruling party and some individuals in Buganda and not the entire community.
He argues that even in the previous elections such misunderstandings existed but the NRM won. “Remember that NRM has over 72% of the constituencies from Buganda and we are going to retain the same number or get more MPs in the next Parliament,” he said. “The negative elements in Mengo are hiding behind the demand for federo, but there is no single district in Buganda that has passed a resolution supporting federo.”
The NRM also has the majority of the local leaders in Buganda from LC1 to LC5. He says his research shows that the NRM is growing stronger in Buganda. “We are not going to lose them in the elections.”
The NRM plans to continue with grassroots mobilisation locally refered to as kakuyege, in Buganda.
“Our strategy in Buganda is to continue engaging in constructive dialogue with all the groups in Buganda, the elected leaders, cultural leaders and all the other groups.” It also plans to “isolate”
Mengo officials considered as leaning towards the opposition “such that they lack a solid ground where to stand when disseminating negative propaganda against NRM.”
The NRM remains the biggest beneficiary of DP’s refusal to join IPC. Anti-NRM votes in Buganda will be divided between IPC and the two factions of DP. The pro-NRM votes on the other hand, will remain together, at least in the presidential elections.
MENGO MOVE
Men go insiders say Baganda kingdom also wants to have a bigger say in national issues and is therefore fronting candidates for parliamentary elections.
They want Parliament to have a good number of legislators who can articulate Buganda issues.
Sources say Mengo has already identified a number of candidates for this purpose. Mengo information minister Charles Peter Mayiga, for instance, has been linked with the race for Bukoto Central parliamentary seat in Masaka District. The seat is currently being held by Parliamentary speaker Edward Kiwanuka Sekandi.
Other parliamentary aspirants closely linked to Mengo are Uganda Martyrs Namugongo head teacher Dr. John Muyingo, who is eyeing Bamunanika in Luwero district; Medad Lubega for Busiro East and Bagunywa Nkalubo for Lubaga North.
Others are Nakiwala Kiyingi for Kampala Woman and Aloysius Kyeyune Kitikyamuwogo, who is yet to decide on a constituency.
“We need to front candidates who are well acquainted with issues that affect Buganda and Baganda. Our region deserves a new face in Parliament and we need strong advocates for people’s needs,” a source said.
Njuba says Buganda needs a strong fundraising drive in order to support these candidates.
Ends