From: Emillio Karega
For those who have a bone to pick with Ruto, they may not agree, but AFTER Referendum Ruto is now a political Giant in Kenya. This is based on how our politics are:
Kenyan politics are largely tribal especially among the top five populous tribes. Each group support their own. Since President Moi retired, Ruto have decisively taken the baron from him and he now leads the Kalenjin Nation.
In 2005 together with Moi, he led Kalenjin Nation in opposing the 2005 Wako Draft. In 2007 in singlehandedly led them in supporting Raila Odinga for President in 2007. In fact, Raila got more votes from Ruto’s stronghold than from his Nyanza backyard. In 2010 Referendum he showed without doubt that he’s the leader of Kalenjin Nation by leading them to vote NO.
Luo Nation was led by Raila to vote YES, while Gema Nation was led by Kibaki/Uhuru to vote YES. Had leaders of these groups gone the other way, their followers would have followed them. That is the simple fact of Kenyan politics and voting pattern…
Now as we head to the next General Election, the Candidate who can muster the winning combination cannot afford to ignore Ruto. He controls over 1m Votes and that’s no joke. Thus, if Raila want to be the next President of Kenya, he either have to get Ruto back him or get Gema Nation to back him. Its that simple. At the moment he has lost the Kalenjin Nation and based on his 2007 Presidential Performance, he needs to get them back or just go for a group that has similar or larger vote numbers, that is, Gema.
If Uhuru wants to be the next President, he has to consolidate his Gema votes, then seek alliances; and it is here that Ruto becomes attractive. If you combine Ruto’s support and Uhuru’s, then Uhuru can easily be the next President. The same case applies to Kalonzo. He either gets Gema (uhuru) support and Rutoh’s.
Probably that is the reason WHY Raila has been mute in criticizing Ruto’s group, but his lieutenants akina Anyang Nyongo are messing him big time.
The clarion that Kenya has moved beyond tribal considerations is nothing but delusions. That is how we have been and that is how we are and it does not matter whether we have a new constitution or the old.
Now go ahead and dismiss me as a tribalist.
Hi Karega,
From your argument,can i imbue that Ruto regionalized himself to play the second fiddle to the big guns – Uhuru / Raila!
Given that,what is the place of other nations ( Turkana, Pokomo etc).
how CAN WE BRING TRIBALISM TO ITS KNEES AND SEE LEADERS FROM THE NATIONAL IMAGE.ANY LESSONS FROM RWANDA WHERE YOU DON’T ADDRESS A PERSON FROM HIS COMMUNITY – EVERYBODY IS A RWANDESE AND NOT A HUTU OR OTHERWISE.
Evans MACHERA.
Evans,
Facts are facts. I can bet you that for the next 220 years, all Kenya’s Presidents will come from the five big tribes: Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin and probably Kambas. This is no brainer. They have the numbers and we vote according to our tribes. Constitution or no constitution, those are facts.
Yes, Ruto established himself as the leader of Kalenjin Nation. That is his base. Raila’s base is Luo; and Uhuru’s base is Gema. That being the case Ruto for sure knows that time is not ripe for him to gunner for the top seat. He is young and if he keeps the momentum he will go places. Right now he can sponsor/endorse those going for the top seat…. His time will come.
The other Kenya’s minorities eg. Pokomo or el-molo have no chance of leading Kenya unless supported by the big tribes.
The Church campaigned on issues (abortion and Kadhi), but very few took them seriously. Reason? Our tribal loyalty is far much superior than our religious one. Actually religion supports the tribal loyalty and where they conflict, tribal loyalty wins!
It is a noble ideal to see candidates as Kenyan, but WHAT the heck is Kenyan? Is it not a combination of tribes with different languages, cultures and world-view? The rest is academic;
Thenx.
Guys
My projection is that Uhuru will be the next president of Kenya if an independent candidate doesnt show up. Here are my SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1: RAILA’S CHANCES
1. Uhuru will not support Raila for president
2. Ruto will not support Raila for president
3. Kalonzo will not support Raila for president
Why?
-All of them do not trust Raila.
-They do not know what Raila will do with them if he comes to power
-Uhuru’s tribe and Raila’s tribe are suspicious of each other
-Ruto has been betrayed by Raila
-Musyoka still blames Raila for his political woes
RAILA THEREFORE LOOSES
SCENARIO 2: RUTO’S CHANCES
1. Uhuru race will not fully support Ruto for president
2. Raila will not support Ruto for president
3. Kalonzo will partially support Ruto for president
Why?
-Kikuyus hate what Ruto did to them during 2007 elections
-Luos will not vote for Ruto as long as Raila is contesting
-Musyoka still considers Ruto his junior and expect Ruto to let him be the candidate
RUTO THEREFORE LOOSES
SCENARIO 3: KALONZO’S CHANCES
1. Kalonzo is simply not acceptable to any other tribe as a serious candidate. He simply does not have a backbone hence other tribes will ignore him except kambas.
Why?
-He betrayed Kenyans in 2007 elections
-Did not take a stand in the referendum
-His own tribe is not solidly behind him
KALONZO THEREFORE LOOSES MISERABLY
SCENARIO 4: UHURU’S CHANCES
1. Ruto will not support Uhuru for president if he is promised vice presidency
2. Raila will not support Uhuru for president whatsoever
3. Kalonzo will not support Uhuru for president to neutralize Raila
Why?
-Uhuru’s mild mannerism makes him trustworthy
-Moi likes Uhuru and hence may convince both Kalonzo and Ruto to support Uhuru
-Almost 100% Kikuyus will vote for Uhuru
-Ruto has no choice but to back Uhuru to neutralize Raila
-Musyoka still blames Raila for his political wooes and will do this to still teach Raila a lesson
-Kibaki will not be a factor if Uhuru is the presidential candidate. Infact he will throw his weight behind Uhuru.
-Mungiki will support Uhuru
UHURU THEREFORE WINS
HOW CAN RAILA WIN?
Go back to Ruto because he will never get Uhuru or Kalonzo unless there is a big fall out between Uhuru and Kalonzo.
Remember the votes are in
-Nyanza
-Central
-Rift Valley
-Western
-Eastern
-Kenyan Diaspora (3 Million sure votes)
Dr. Barack Otieno Abonyo
Associate Professor of Pharmacology
College of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences
Florida A and M University
1415 Martin Luther King Dr.
Tallahassee Fl, 32304
Tel:850-561-2553
850-339-4806
Where are the other Kenyan tribes?
Also dont forget the Rift valley votes include those of other tribes resident there not just the kaleo
I am truly disgusted at this tribal talk. We are at a point that it may be possible to build our nation anew. But every pundit gives this bleeding gabbage on which of the current loser player will be next president. Kenyans will vote for an individual not his tribe for president. We simulteously know and do not know that tribal factor landed us where we are. Impunity and resultant plundering was moulded in the crucible of tribal talk. Character and competence must replace tribal consideration as qualification. I declare it here and now, and challenge anybody to prove me wrong, that tribal politics is fraud and is a ‘designed’ vehicle to manipulate and hoodwink the unsuspecting masses to hero worship their ‘village’ dictators. When insanity takes over as it did after 2007 elections the country bleeds in its entirety irrespective of tribe. The only exception are the ‘designers’ of the evil with hired goons all around them ready and willing to protect and die for their tribal heroes.
Come on people we can and must do better than that.
Daktari i beg to disagree with you on this one. After the referendum , the one person who came up the big winner is Raila. He is the one who started campaigning for the Yes vote even before Kabaki and his cronnies were still faultering. Infact, kabaki had to be convinced that raila is running away with the constitution. He had made up his mind much earlier than anybody else. Every politacal leader now listens or watches raila’s every move because he is always way ahead of them.
THE TRIBAL MENTALITY:
It is very sad the way some people continue to project Kenyan Leadership in terms of tribe. This is one of the reasons why we had to fight so had to have a devolved system of Government. Worst of all, it is the young and fairly learned who are still strategizing for leadership position based on tribes. If the lesson of 2007 was not enough, the I can guarantee you that the worst is yet to come, unless we change from the inside.
How do you explain a case whereby a whole leader goes to the press and say that the PM has a hidden agenda or a problem with part of Rift Valley? Is this not incitement if not politicala thurgery? I wonder why the somebody has not been charged with incitement. Let the said hidden agemda be said in public. The problem is that most of the so-called leaders are breeds of the Nyayo Era or corruption and tribalism. Some of them are still clinging to misuse tribal atherances to propel themselves to leadership with the hope protecting their in-gotten wealth. Kenya is larger than any of those so-called tribal leaders. The truth of the matter is that we are still far away from National Cohesion untill we face the roque tribal chiefs and bundle them to prison.
Why was Ruto opposing the Constitution? He wanted to gauge his strength and see if he can use the Kalenjin vote to bargain for power sharing in the coming election. I wonder if this is the quality of a leader we should look upon to lead us.
I guess that Ruto will never see State House. The Constitution that he rejected is one the one in use, so which other Constitution will he use to rule? As i had said before that unless Kenyans wake up, we shall one day fight each other to death. The solution is by locking out all the tribalists from position of leadership.
Belonging to a tribe is not a crime just as being a kenyan is not a crime, but to tribalize issue and stir up tribal animosity is acrime.
So ladies and gentlemen, the time for tibal groupings is gone and gone for ever, unless we want a repeat of 2007
The standard Newspaper should write objectively and avoid being labelled tribal paper. It is shameful the way they try to promote a nobdoy to be a somebody.
ruto and uhuru should first answers questions about their involvement in post election violence.we as Luo’s are already in canan after leaving misri years ago.so whether mungiki,kaleos or whoever ,we are unbwogable.Dr. i respect your works in sciences.but your political opinion was quite shalow.all those croocks need Agwambo more than he needs them. dont forget we own L. victoria and we are no more intrested in who is Kenya’s nxt president coz we got devolution.Remember it was ruto and uhuru who gat the credit after naivasha,but it is the same chaps who opposed/watermelon the costitution when the moment of truth came calling.so the fact is that ruto let his people down ,coz he let the kiyuks use him till when they had to damp him and there was nothing he could do.Nakuru is gone and so is their monopoly of RV,why do u think they are still crying for amedments.his community shld punish him for selling them for two pieces of silver ,akipewa lift na baba.bure kabisa.now Awash is working with more iterlect pple’ like Dr.Saly,Pro. Kamar.Pro Sambili just to name bt a few who dont follow ruto like ngwen(termites) to the mouth of a jamwa
Jakoom, I hope I have spell the word right, this is what I call sincere men who confront the truth the way its. I totaly agree with you. go on Chairman.