Kenya: How true is this?

from Alan Osoro

I saw this, below, somewhere. How valid is it?

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SCENARIO 1: RAILA’S CHANCES

1. Uhuru will not support Raila for president
2. Ruto will not support Raila for president
3. Kalonzo will not support Raila for president

Why?
-All of them do not trust Raila.
-They do not know what Raila will do with them if he comes to power
-Uhuru’s tribe and Raila’s tribe are suspiscious of each other
-Ruto has been betrayed by Raila
-Musyoka still blames Raila for his political wooes

RAILA THEREFORE LOOSES

SCENARIO 2: RUTO’S CHANCES

1. Uhuru race will not fully support Ruto for president
2. Raila will not support Ruto for president
3. Kalonzo will partially support Ruto for president

Why?
-Kikuyus hate what Ruto did to them during 2007 elections
-Luos will not vote for Ruto as long as Raila is contesting
-Musyoka still considers Ruto his junior and expect Ruto to let him be the candidate

RUTO THEREFORE LOOSES

SCENARIO 3: KALONZO’S CHANCES

1. Kalonzo is simply not acceptable to any other tribe as a serious candidate. He simply does not have a backbone hence other tribes will ignore him except kambas.

Why?
-He betrayed Kenyans in 2007 elections
-Did not take a stand in the referendum
-His own tribe is not solidly behind him

KALONZO THEREFORE LOOSES MISERABLY

SCENARIO 4: UHURU’S CHANCES

1. Ruto will support Uhuru for president if he is promised vice presidency
2. Raila will not support Uhuru for president whatsoever
3. Kalonzo will support Uhuru for president to neutralize Raila

Why?
-Uhuru’s mild mannerism makes him trustworthy
-Moi likes Uhuru and hence may convince both Kalonzo and Ruto to support Uhuru
-Almost 100% Kikuyus will vote for Uhuru
-Ruto has no choice but to back Uhuru to neutralize Raila
-Musyoka still blames Raila for his political wooes and will do this to still teach Raila a lesson
-Kibaki will not be a factor if Uhuru is the presidential candidate. Infact he will throw his weight behind Uhuru.
-Mungiki will support Uhuru

UHURU THEREFORE WINS

HOW CAN RAILA WIN?
Go back to Ruto because he will never get Uhuru or Kalonzo unless there is a big fall out between Uhuru and Kalonzo.
Remember the votes are in
-Nyanza
-Central
-Rift Valley
-Western
-Eastern
-Kenyan Diaspora (3 Million sure votes)

Dr. Barack Otieno Abonyo
Associate Professor of Pharmacology
College of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences
Florida A and M University
1415 Martin Luther King Dr.
Tallahassee Fl, 32304
Tel:850-561-2553
850-339-4806

2 thoughts on “Kenya: How true is this?

  1. Fuambo Janyandito

    Daktari, ignore that retrogressive maths. Raila does not own the Luos, Ruto doesn’t own the Kalenjins, Uhuru doesn’t own Kikuyus and Musyoka doesn’t own Kambas.

    Any person who wants to be taken seriously in 2012 must be one who is ready and seen to be ready to take care of the socio-economic interests of each and every region.

  2. Ahero Weche Mokwe

    I greet you with the love of God and much respect for all you out there especially the author of this article. Let us remember that it is God who causes us to do every good work. We have done our own strength things for too long. Can we try asking God for his purpose on the lives of Kenyans and the nation of Kenya. only then will things work out to satisfaction. Many African nations have surrendered to the lordship of Jesus Christ and we see such areas starting to turn a new leaf. Kenya is now seen on TV begging for food. Kenya is a small nation, and can get back to God. He is the answer to what all are looking for . We see big nations of Europe starting to colapse because they have started to reject God. There is trouble even in such giants as the US because the love of God has grown cold. Beloved country people, think of these things! I will leave you with this word From Psalm 148. This Psalm tells all things, all people, all animals, stones and rocks, angels, fire, hail, snow, mountains,hills, tree, kings of the earth, princess and all judges to praise the Lord God.
    May the hearts , minds, bodies of Nyanza people be turned back to God, and be lessed.

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