News Analysis By Leo Odera Omolo In Kisumu City
INFORMATION emerging from various parts of Nyanza Province say that some administrative location chiefs are listed among those who had secretly campaigned for the Red during the just concluded referendum voting for the new constitution..
NGO and voluntary organizations whose representative made extensive tour of the region prior to the polls in August 4, have reported meeting strong anti draft constitution mounted by chiefs and their assistants, though the turn out by the voters was the highest on record. The voters defiantly defied the chiefs and other local politicians who are said to have been acting at the behest of the Reds camp.
A report emerging from the greater Southern Nyanza says one location in Karachuonyo constituency in Rachuonyo, district was the worse hit. There the Chief of Wang-Chieng’, Location openly opposed any meeting of local women had organized for the purpose of carrying out civic education. Such meetings were meant for sensitizing the women voters.
The program, according the coordinator Ms Dorothy Awino of the Women Property Rights Organization of Kenya, was sponsored and financed by the USAID in conjunction with The Nyanza Development Alternative Initiative group many local administrators were acting on fears that once the new constitution is in force they would be fizzled out and declared redundant.
The program covered four constituencies of Nyakach, Karachuonyo ,Rangwe and Rongo.The area MPs had co-operated fully with the group and ensured that their work went on smoothly and uninterrupted. But in some places, Chiefs were speaking two different tones. They were supporting the draft constitution by day time, but at the same time known to have called night meetings and told the voters to vote against the same document.
Awino reported an incident in Karachuonyo where the women were alleged to have confronted the former MP for the area MP Dr.Paul Awiti and told him on his face to stop interfering with the group work of sensitizing the women voters.
Rangwe MP George Otieno Ogindo is reported to have been suspicious of the group’s work, but later changed his attitude. The civic education work conducted in the region even attracted women folks from other constituencies in the neighborhood such Ndhiwa and Migori who voluntarily crossed their constituency boundaries and attended the training sessions in the neighboring constituencies.
The campaign and the civic education have left permanent scars in some places. In Karachuonyo it degenerated into conflict of interest between the supporters of the incumbent MP Eng James Rege and the followers of the immediate former area MP Dr Paul Adhu Awiti. Clams that funds allocated for civic education in the area was vandalized emerged.
What eventually emerged was the fact that the electorate had defiantly ignored the prophets of food and turned out in their thousands, particularly the women folks who voted heavily in favor of the greens.
Elsewhere the high turn out of voters during the referendum has significantly important that it pointed out the direction the voting pattern forthcoming general election would follow, especially in Western Kenya. Voters in the regions will have a tough choice either to vote in tribal line or for a popular presidential candidate.
In both the South and North of the Rift Valley, the Kalenjin voters showed they had unswerving loyalty to the Higher Education Minister William Ruto. However, the Minister performed dismally in his own constituency of Eldoret North, which is arguably a more or less a cosmopolitan electoral area. The Red also performed poorly in nearly all urban centers and towns as well as in the metropolitan constituencies within the capital City, Nairobi..
In those rural constituencies, particularly in the Maasai land with heavy settlement of the Kalenjins, the voting pattern was tilted towards the Reds, though the community leaders in those areas had vowed to vote in favor of the document. These areas included Kilgoris in Trans-Mara,Narok North and Narok West.
Four cabinet Minister in the coalition government who hails from the North and Southern regions of the vast and expansive Rift Valley Province who stuck with President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga received a rude shock when their constituents voted almost on man to man in favor of the Reds.The Ministers who became the first casualties for their support and had vigorously campaigned in favor of the draft constitution were Road Minister Franklin Bett {Buret}, Agriculture Minister Dr Sally Kosgei {Aldai}Prof Hellen Simbili[ Aldama Ravine},Industrialization Minister Henry Kosgey {Tinderet}. Also betrayed by their constituents were the Home Affairs Assistant Minister Beatrice Kones {Bomet} Joyce Laboso {Sotik} and Prof.Margaret Kamara {Eldoret East}.
Many interviewed votes in the constituencies mentioned above, however, vehemently denied that the same voting pattern would be repeated in the forthcoming general election schedule for December 2012.,the rejection of the MPs campaign for the referendum was not the work of the Red alone, but was largely contributed by the clerics and church people, adding that the 2012 elections would be, fought on different issues not related to the law reform document.
“By the time of the2012 elections, most of the Kalenjin MPs whose constituents had voted against the draft constitution will win back their parliamentary seats depending on individual’s contribution to the development of his or her constituency. The referendum issue would be a bygone issue in 201’, said Mzee Jonathan Birir a Kericho politician.
In Western Province where the Greens campaign was speared headed by the Deputy ODM leader and the minister for Local government W.Musalia Mudavadi, the Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo who had teamed up with his old KY92 colleague and partner William Ruto became the first casualty when his constituents voted unanimously for the constitution. Given the nature of his rejection by the voters, Jirongo will have to work extra time to win back the electorate who seemed to have rejected him. Fred Kapondi, a No campaigner who represent the violent prone Mt Elgon e constituency performance were sterling.
Statistics of the audited referendum voting pattern are showing that there were nearly 90 per cent voters turn out in the electoral constituencies which are perceived to be the stronghold of the Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
In all twenty constituencies in Nyanza Province the turn out varied between 85 and 98 per cent despite of the well elaborate plan to sabotage the referendum voting in the region. The other apathy could as well be attributed to the complacency and insensitiveness of the voters in the registering the villagers in who as voters despite all having acquired the national identity card in their possession. Luo MPs from Nyanza also stand blamed for not having not mounted sufficient time for the campaign to sensitizing the electorate to register themselves as voters. These MPs have kept themselves away from the electorate, only making cosmetic appearance during funeral gatherings.
Political pundits are quickly in pointing out that the event of Raila Odinga running for the presidency in 2012, he would be advantaged by metropolitan, urban and towns votes against his arch-rival William Ruto whose support is only confined to the rural areas.
The outspoken and politically naive MP for Cheragany Joshua Kutuny is another referendum voting casualty. Kutuny performed poorly at his home turf. Voters in Cherangany had returned a unanimous voted Yes..
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