News Analysis By Leo Odera Omolo In Kisumu City
In recent past Kenyans have been treated to a number of opinion polls researched and conducted by several organizations showing their readers about who is who in the next presidential elections battle come 2012.
The researchers have concentrated on few individual politicians in this country painting as the only possible front runners for the top most job on the land; the Presidency of the Republic of Kenya.
But their findings have failed miserably to recognize the fact that the next presidential election race will be fought on several prongs. The men being frequently mentioned as possible contestants and winners include the Prime.Minister Raila Odinga, the Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, the Vice President Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, the Deputy Prime Minister Wicliffe Musalia Mudavadi and the Minister for Higher Education William Ruto.
But the indications are that some of these big names being touted as the possible contestants and winners of the top most job on the land could turn out to be non-starters.
These opinion polls have either by design or deliberately ignoring the Francis Atwoli, Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth factors in relations to the 2012 presidential race. Anyone ignoring the trio is doing so at his or her own peril.
Atwoli in particular is the man to watch in relations to 2012 presidential race. The COTU {K} Secretary-General’s influence in Kenya’s politics is rapidly gaining momentum day by day.
The flamboyant unionis has established a highly impressive network countrywide through unionists, and his steadfast anti-corruption stance that has received the highest acclamation above the political party politics.
And being the Secretary-General of the down trodden members of the Kenya Plantation and Agricultural Workers Union, and the flamboyant unionist has succeeded in lifting up the standard of living through tough negotiation of better wages for thre workers in the plantation sector.
Atwoli has also printed his name on almost every anti-corruption sentiment, which he has hammered so hard on the establishment has made him the number one anti-corruption Tsar in this country, a fact which those conducting research on opinion polls seemed to have ignored either deliberately or through the design to play down his political influence
Owing to Atwoli’s some time overzealous agitation for the workers rights, down graded jobs like tea plucking in the plantations has of late become highly competitive due to good salary package involved.
The same could be said in sugar plantation sub-0sector and other plantations through the country including the workers in the flower industry, which has of late joined the other money minting class in the plantation sub-sector of the economy, which include coffee, tea, sisal, pyrethrum, and horticulture.
The information making the round mostly in many part of Western Kenya is that Atwoli who appeared in the eyes of the public as detribalized leader would make a good president. He is being urged from various quarters to contest the presidency, though in Kenya are concerned.
He has yet to identify himself with any of the already established major political parties in this country such as ODM, PNU, ODM-Kenya, FORD-Kenya, FORD-People, UDM or Narc-Kenya, but his agents are said to have infiltrated deep inside the established parties.
He has also persistently turned down the request for his Luhyia tribal dominated Ford-Kenya, which has a strong foothold in his home turf of Western Province the same way as Raila Odinga with the Luo dominated ODM, Kalonzo Musyoka’s Kamba dominated ODM-Kenya,Uhuru Kenyatta’s chameleon like fledgling KANU/PNU ailing alliance and the Ruto fronted KKK amalgamation of tribal alliances.
Another advantage for Atwoli is his non-tribal and non-ethnical attitudes towards the national politics and this stance has given him a better national outlook, which is one essential ingredient for any future leader of this country. Over-depending on ethical backing is rapidly dwindling. And those politicians who could not compete on the national platform, but relying heavily on their communities support would soon find that they have no place in the future political activities of this country.
This is because the younger generation of Kenyans, who according to the recently released national censure forms 75 of the total population do not ascribe to the school of thought of tribal politics, though some of old leaders still clings to this outmoded kind of politics. It is now apparently obvious that the year 2012 obviously will no be the same like the year 2007.
Obviously Atwoli will the backing and support of one of the already established political parties in order to realize his presidential ambition, though his work would be made much easier through the workers networking and infiltrated the existing parties. He is a man to watch in the 2012.
Atwoli is a Luhyia by tribe who hails from Butere-Mumias district in the Kakamega County, but he has flatly refused to be dragged and sucked into tribal politics thereby cutting a nich of a national leader. He has of late been criss-crossing the countryside, visiting nearly all parts of Kenya either conducting Harambee fund drive for economic and socio-economic projects, conducting high profile seminars, workshops and other activities, which have endeared him heavily close to the electorate. He will be a hard nut to crack come the year 2012 if he wished to have a shot at the presidential race, though he need to form an alliance with any of the existing parties.
Another politician worth watching is the Gichugu MP Miss Martha Karua who heads NAR-Kenya. Her party, which is one of the affiliates of the PNU has already pulled out of the amorphous coalition of parties that forms the PNU. It has won two important by-election in Juja and in Makadara an event which has improved the party take at the national political arena and also in the August House.
Karua is seen in the mirror of a modern-day Iron Lady of Kenya politics. She Is so articulate and eloquent, something which puts her above the other presidential aspirants. She is viewed as someone who is highly principled, especially considering the way and the manner in which she bolted herself out of the cage of the corruption ridden PNU government, which she had diligently served as the Minister for Water Resources and later Justice and Constitutional Affairs
Karua a trained lawyer by-profession has in the recent years turned out to be the only voice of reasoning in this country at a time when other politicians through loose-tongue have fallen apart by the wayside.
However, considering that Karua is a woman, and the women folks are the majority of voters in this country, this iron lady is worth watching. Her only disadvantage is that she is a Kikuyu by tribe and by virtue of birth, and her candidature coming at a wrong time when nobody in this country would wish to have another Kikuyu at the State House. It would therefore be an up-hill task for the Gichugu MP to convince Kenyans to accept her as the successor of President Mwai Kibaki, though in my view she is the most eligible and qualified for the job. The circumstance would make her work extra time to be able to win the votes countrywide.
One important factor which has given Karua the highest marks is that she is a principled politician while her contemporary women colleagues plays the politics of sycophancy, she maintained her own and independent minded, though she is largely blamed for having defended the stolen presidential votes tallying system at the Kenyatta International Conference Center in December 2007,an act which sparked off the post election violence of 2008.But the fact that Kenyans are now yawning for a peaceful cohesiveness, she could be long forgiven..
Another factor that could further complicate Karua’s presidential ambition is the Central Kenya factor. All the signs are that Karua could easily triumph over Uhuru Kenyatta the undeclared anointed President Kibaki successor and tame other contender in the Kikuyu inhabited regions if she could succeed in mobilizing women voters all over Kenya should mobilize women to her side the same way she had successfully mobilized the voters to her side during the recently concluded Juja-by-election where her party’s candidate Kabogo triumphed over Thuo who was perceived to be the candidate of Mr Kenyatta and Peter Kenneth backed young woman who gave the duo a good run for their money, it is significantly clear hat Karua is gaining a strong foothold in the Central.
Also in the Central Kenya, the emerging political influence of the youthful Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth cannot be fizzled out. The Planning Assistant Minister an ex-banker is the only politician in Central region’s politician whose voice is heard and welcome outside the predominantly Kikuyu region. He is seen as a moderate and plays non-partisan politics. He is eloquent and wit in a region where most politicians spent their valuable time strategizing for tribal hegemony and chauvinist. The youthful politicians speak in a clear national language as opposed to parochial utterances which is the characteristic of Central Kenya politics for many years.
Peter Kenneth is another politician worth watching as far as the future presidential race is concerned.
The opinion polls have always been geared to highlight the positions of the likes of Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi, while playing down the emerging influence of these emerging stars. but these opinion shippers would be ashamed when they came to realize that the next presidential race would be fought on several prongs with devastating effect due to the fact that some of the big names would be tumbling down to the ground as the result of the burning desire of the younger generation of Kenyans to change the political landscape of the country.
It is worthy to note that some of the politicians who have been wavering and shifting alliances from here and there may soon find themselves irrelevant outfit in the new set up.
Ends
leooderaomolo@yahoo.com