Wananchi,
It sounds better to me authored in a Gema blood.
 
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 http://www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143988877

The dilemma in finding Kibaki’s heir
Published on June 22, 2008, 12:00 am; The Standard;

By XN Iraki

The post-independence leaders — Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki — should have taken their physics lessons more seriously. That would have made them more successful politicians.

The last two would not have been out manoeuvred by Raila, who must have done more physics than them.

Nature abhors a vacuum, so says one of the laws of physics. This simple principle is used to run your car engine, spray crops and fly aircrafts. ODM used the same principle to almost wrestle power from PNU and her allies.

Consider this; after a quarter of a century at the helm, President Moi never got a political heir in his backyard. It is still an open question why he never did that despite his experience. Was it nationalism, political miscalculation or failure to honour to the laws of physics?

The vacuum he left was quickly filled by ODM through Mr William Ruto, one of his political offsprings. ODM got the Rift Valley and used it as a lynch pin to reach out to the rest of the country.

ODM will most likely use the same strategy in the run up to the 2012 General Election. There is already a political vacuum in Kibaki’s backyard. Like President Moi, Kibaki has not anointed a political heir. Was he sending a coded message by making Uhuru the deputy premier?

ODM through Raila is using some very ingenious ways. One, neutralise the elders by becoming one of them. While becoming a Kikuyu elder may not mean much to Kikuyu community, after all few men there bother to give elders “Mburi ya kiama”, it has a huge symbolic significance to the rest of the country.

The second approach is to reach out to the younger generation, who are politically more malleable. One of the most politically significant events this year is the Mungiki response to Raila’s call for a “ceasefire”. This event should have woken up even the most naive politician in Central Kenya.

The third route, either by accident or not, is through the heart. By making the Kikuyu his in-laws, (when is the wedding?) Raila will probably soften their political hearts. Few political strategists can doubt that if you can break into Kikuyu heartland, and exploit their feeling of vulnerability because of Kibaki’s imminent departure, and fill the emerging political vacuum, you will have a head start to 2012. The ODM strategy is further aided by the fact that it is unlikely the rest of the country will easily vote for another president from central Kenya. This makes this region politically very strategic.

Many potential presidential candidates will dangle PM or VP post to this voting block. In fact whoever can get this voting block should get a spare key to State House now. Some have boldly suggested that Raila is filling vacuums beyond central Kenya. He knows George Bush is leaving office and there is a political vacuum in White House. In Africa no one is brave enough to tell Robert Mugabe to step down. Raila has done that. But ODM (read Raila) will not smoothly sail into this region. By courting the Kikuyu, Raila may alienate his core supporters in the Rift Valley. They may demand his support for one of their own for presidency to reciprocate their support in 2007. After all, they forfeited their claim to PM post.

Two, central Kenya leaders may pre-empt Raila’s strategic thrust by grooming a non-Kikuyu. Conventional wisdom suggests Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, who would most likely reach out to Central Kenya for a VP or PM. A Kalonzo-Raila contest would closely mirror Kibaki-Raila bout hopefully minus post-poll chaos.

Three, central Kenya may coalesce around a leader the way Rift Valley coalesced around Ruto then use the voting block to extract maximum political dividends. A Gema swing vote would make anyone a president.

Four, it is contestable if this region will soften towards Raila for diluting the presidential powers. Though Western powers were behind the accord, most people would prefer to see Raila’s hands. Finally, the expiry of the National Accord provisions after five years may change the political directions in new and unexpected ways.

The writer is a lecturer at the University of Nairobi, School of Business: xniraki@aol.com

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Date:  Sun, 22 Jun 2008 18:07:31 +0000
From:  Nicholas Mireri
Subject:   Kibaki Succession !!!