From: odhiambo okecth
Date: Friday, February 22, 2013, 3:14 AM
POLITICS IS ABOUT NUMBERS: READ TO THE END AND YOU WILL AGREE WITH ME.
There e has been an uproar about the recent projection of numbers I had made giving JUBILEE an advantage over CORD. Never in my political analysis have I been dismissed by the public like this time round: even getting killed in facebook. I refuse …to die. But I still insist that a political contest can only be won on Numbers.
With the assistance of other political analysts, we have done some more research on figures, and the general political mood on the ground from various regions in the country. Lets look at this numbers from various regions:
CENTRAL- 2,190,476 VOTERS
NYANZA- 1,954,756 VOTERS
WESTERN- 1,434,987- VOTERS
COAST – 1,640,083 VOTERS
N.EASTERN- 504,482 VOTERS
EASTERN – 2,092,883 VOTERS
RIFT VALLEY- 3,373,853 VOTERS
NAIROBI- 1,778,903 VOTERS
It’s regrettable that most of us are going to vote on the basis of tribal orientation. For Jubilee they are banking on central province, Rift Valley , Nairobi and Easten for Uhuruto to win the presidency.
If they manage to galvanize these regions they can easily win during the first round. That is superficial but if you do a scratch on the numbers, they pose a more complicated puzzle for JUBILEE.
Jubilee alliance should not comfort themselves with the numbers from the presumed strongholds. Otherwise the figures might be better for CORD than they look in the Opinion polls. Let’s sample the traditional Nairobi, Eastern and Rift Valley provinces which ought to give JUBILEE to a first round win. Central is purely uncontested for JUBILEE like Nyanza is CORDED. What are these numbers and where do they belong? I strongly consider the fact and reality on the ground that most Kenyans are likely to vote along and through ethnic influence.
1. RIFT VALLEY
Elgeyo Marakwet- 134,290
Nandi – 254,788
Bomet – 254,405
(sub total 1,104,598 voters- jubilee controlled)
In these regions, William Ruto has a superb command. There might be little unfaithfuls from Kericho and Bomet Towns which are somehow cosmopolitan. The son of Moi might also do some little spoils.
West Pokot- 107,894
Trans Nzoia- 231,352
Uasini Gishu- 318,717
(sub-total:2,269,255 – contestable votes for CORD and JUBILEE )
In these regions JUBILEE can not confidently claim even a 60% command: The Maasai Narok and Kajiado not at any point have they shown to be faithful followers of William Ruto. They are more inclined to ODM CORD. Samburu,West Pokot might be a fifty fifty scoop for both CORD and JUBILEE. Trans Nzoia is a home of none. Luhyas, Kisii farmers and kalenjin mix gives neither CORD nor JUBILEE an edge. Nakuru is more cosmopolitan and if you scan the register of Nakuru County, Kisiis, Luhyas ,Akamba, Luos alone hit at 258,624 voters. From these counties alone in Rift Valley, it shows that JUBILEE doesn’t purely command the region. Two thirds of its votes are for split.
If Raila gets 1million votes or something close from Rift Valley, it will be a nightmare for Jubilee. With Raila’s schemes and political antics, he can cut through these numbers which is practically possible. The math of numbers might not work for Jubilee in RIFT VALLEY with its cosmopolitan nature.
2.NAIROBI : (1,778,903 voters)
Now that elections will be held in march, the IEBC calendar has forced the village voters to vote from the city as they wont be travelling home for Christmas holidays as they used. No wonder we had a voter registration turn out of 138% in Nairobi. As per Register scan Luos, Luhyas, Kambas and Kisiis who are CORD inclined tally to 1,192,037 if they will be faithful to their ethnic spirit like their village counterparts then they are likely to vote for CORD. I hope JUBILEE are aware of this variance in numbers. There is no doubt RAILA will emerge a winner from NAIROBI by 1M votes plus.
Eastern has for long time been supporting presidential candidates from central under the GEMA banner. Does JUBILEE count on the same support? Can charity Ngilu deliver from KAMBA land?
Let me sample the numbers from all the counties in EASTERN.
(sub-total:1,069,529) undisputed CORD command.
Tharaka- 155,823 (Subtotal:1,023,354 voters)
Isiolo and Marsabit might be an equal share or a slight win for CORD.
Meru, Tharaka and Embu have been for long faithful in GEMA. With the presence of William Ruto do they have an upper hand in the jubilee coalition? With these displacement most voters especially the youth might vote outside GEMA .The task of JUBILEE is to make this people to feel still at home which has proven difficulty especially to get Kiraitu off his BUS and Join theJUBILEE mainstream. Whom does JUBILEE look upon to deliver these votes from this region for presidency ? Kiraitu is very busy campaigning for his gubernatorial cause. JUBILEE might win from this region with a very small margin which is far below my previous projection. And this is a big minus for JUBILEE coalition.
Jubilee would have won the presidency if they had pure control of EASTERN, NAIROBI AND RIFT VALLEY .
There is a big likelyhood for CORD leading in COAST, EASTERN, NAIROBI, WESTERN, NORTH EASTERN AND NYANZA as opposed to JUBILEE leading in RIFT VALLEY AND CENTRAL only. RAILA might be a round one winner if he gets 1million votes from Rift valley which is practically possible.
If RAILA doesn’t win during round one, he will definitely win during the run off on the basis that:
-The HAGUE calendar will be very active for UHURUTO
- some JUBILEE pointmen who are trying to go against the grain, like Prof. Ongeri, Balala, Mwakwele and Ngilu would have fallen. And Jubilee will look a two tribe oufit.
- All the fallen presidential candidates by Reason of Raila’s Age with the assumption that he will be a one term president, will pull their weight behind Raila in the Name of salvaging the country from economic sanctions. JUBILEE can not withstand the euphoria.
I beg to leave as I take this opportunity to congratulate in advance the 4th president of the Republic of Kenya His Exellence ……………… Go and vote to proof or disproof this. Don’t just argue