News analysis by Leo Odera Omolo

The battle for political supremacy in the expansive Rift Valley Province has began in earnest as all the players are rearing to go for each other in preparation for 2012 general elections.
This time around the battle will pity several new and smaller parties against the already established giants like the ODM and PNU.
In the 2007 general elections, the ODM led by the charismatic and populist Raila Amolo Odinga swept the board garnering close to 2 million votes in both North and South Rift regions. The managed to harvested 31 parliamentary seats out of 43 in both regions in addition to the Maasai land.
The ODM ,however, was locked out of the Central Rift whose inhabitants are mainly the Kikuyus. PNU performed better in Nakuru Town, Njoro, Naivasha and Subukia as well as in Laikipia District and also bagged one seat in Baringo East constituency.
However, the current projection about the future of the Rift Valley politics appear to signal a different scenario and dimension comes 2012. The next battle will be fought in five frontlines and it will involve five political parties.,
This is because of the recent emergence of three other parties namely, United Democratic Movement (UDM) led by former Deputy CGS Lt. Gen. (Rtd) John Koech, the KANU party led by Gideon Moi and Nick Salat and Nicholas Biwott led National Vision Party (NVP). The possibility of the three relatively smaller parties slashing off the huge chunk in the ODM’s flesh and gaining foothold in both the North and South Rift cannot be ruled out.
Among the three parties, UDM, KANU and NVP, only the UDM had performed well in the recent by-elections in the South Rift. It came second in the Ainamoi by-election and also second in the Sotik by-election and third in the Bomet by-election held last year.
UDM has one MP in parliament who is working closely with ODM. She is Prof Hellen Sambili, the MP for Mogutio in Koibatek District who held the Sports Ministerial docket in the grand coalition government and half a dozen civic leaders in the various local county ,town councils and Municipalities..
Other issues which are likely to work to the advantage of those smaller parties include the protracted war of attrition which is raging on quietly between the two ODM supermoms Raila Odinga and William Ruto and the controversial Government plan to evict thousands of the so called illegal squatters in the Mau Forest Complex.
The planned eviction is likely to affect thousands of Kalenjin families mainly the Kipsigis a sub tribe of the larger Kalenjin ethnic groups. The Kipsigis is the most populous sub-tribe. Its members gave ODM and Raila votes on man to man basis. ODM bagged nine parliamentary seats eight of them coming mainly from the Kipsigis dominated districts of Kericho, Bureti, Bomet and Sotik Districts. ODM also bagged two seats in diaspora in the Central Rift District of Molo, the Kureoi constituency which was won by the former powerful PS in the office of the President in-charge of Provincial Administration and Internal Security Zakayo Z. Cheruiyot. The party also bagged the Rongai seat.won by Hon Kigen.
Raila ,however, is likely to be adversely affected by his recent involvement in the Mau Forest saga which has negatively impacted in his relations with the members of the populous Kipsigis community who have since mirrored him as unpredictable leader.
Raila will also have an uphill task to explain and convincing the Kipsiugis voters, the reason why he had abandoned the man who had spearheaded his campaign in the region, which resulted in his Victoria, Lt. Gen{rtd}John Koech.
After the former army chief lost the Ainamoi seat in the much flawed ODM nomination system, which was full of rigging and poorly supervisor, many people were expecting Mr. Odinga to nominate the former military chief to parliament or offer him a lucrative position in one of the government parastals. instead he was appointed to head a not very lucrative Poverty Eradication Commission, and within only three months he was fired by the Ministry of Planning on flimsy reason that he is a head of a political party, the UDM.
In fa ct Gen Koech is the most trusted Raila’s lieutenant among the Kalenjin politicians, but he only moved to the UDM in anger after having rigged twice in Ainamoi by a cartel of younger politicians led by William Ruto and Charles Keter who had panicked over his a great deal over his growing status and closeness to “Agwambo’ as well as his enormous influence within the Kipsigis politics
Three MPs from the South Rift region have, however, maintained cordial relations with the PM. They are Bureti MP and Minister for Roads Franklin Bett, the Bomet MP and an Assistant Minister Beatrice Kones and Joyce Laboso. Five other MPs from the region have joined the band wagon of Agriculture Minister William Ruto. After enjoying small token from the whopping cash allegedly earned from the maize scandals.
Raila is also counting on the backing of the ODM National Chairman Henry Kosgei who is the Minister for Industrialization and MP for Tinderet. He is also enjoying the unswerving support of Dr. Sally Kosgei the Minister for Higher Education and MP for Aldai in Nandi North. Kosgei is the MP for Tinderet in the Nandi North District.
Gideon Moi’s KANU has been drastically weakened by the continued leadership of Uhuru Kenyata, who has one foot in the PNU and the other in KANU. The Kalenjin voters are said not to be comfortable with the Kenyattas. The community enmity with Kenyatta is deeply rooted .For many years the Kalenjins have yet to forgive the founding father of the Nation for having settled many of his Kikuyu tribesmen in the Rift valley during the early part of the independence
Kenyatta had used parts of the money granted to the Kenyan Government by the former colonial power, the British Government. The money was meant for the compensation of the white settlers who had opted out of country at the time of independence and also to be lent to the emerging African farmers to buy the whites farms and settle in what used to be known as “the White Highlands”, instead Kenyatta used the money to acquire thousands of hectares in the fertile farming regions of the Rift Valley and used part of it in settling the landless Kikuyus at the expense of other communities.
Gideon Moi is the first Vice Chairman of KANU while Nick Salat is the party’s Secretary
General. Both men are young but are now operating outside parliament after the two had failed
to win any seat during the 2007 general election.hey were bundled out by the ODM candidates in
their respective constituencies. Moi lost the Baringo Central seatr which he had inherited from
his father in 2002. His father had held the seat since its inception in 1963 until his retirement in 2002. Salat too had twice represented the Bomet seat previously held by his father the late Isaac
Nicholas Kiprome Kipyator Biwott, though not a very eloquent and good in his public addresses and not so an astitute politician but he is being credited to be an operative per excellence. Many Kalenjins consider Biwott as a wise man and a dedicated leader on his own right. Biwott is also capable of selling his NVP party across the Kalenjin borders to other communities and he is a resourceful man with wealth of experience in political maneuvering.
It is, however, not clear which one among the three parties UDM, NVP, and KANU has the blessing and backing or enjoys the support of the retired President Daniel Arap Moi whose influence in the region is still very intact
The self-styled professor of Kenya’s politics is still a power to reckon with in the politics of the Rift Valley region and even beyond. Many Kenyans still respect Moi as someone who had ruled the country for 24 years with a vision, and his name has remand an household in almost every Kenyan family. .
Both Biwott and Gideon have in the recent past been shuttling while traversing the region from Mt Elgon to Trans-Mara while recruiting their party members an opening new branches.
Reports from the region, however, indicate that William Ruto is still commanding a lot of support in both North and Southern regions and that if Ruto-Raila relations and raport is sustained until 2012, the trio will be a hard nut to crack,though the recent maize scandal has negatively impacted on the popularity of the Eldoret North ODM MP.
Gideon Moi’s only mistake is his over independence on spent forces whose popularity have waned. The likes of former nominated MP Ezekiel Bargetuny have no added value to the younger Moi’s successes in scoring a foothold in some parts of the Rift valley even in Nandi region and the sooner Gideon recruited younger Lieutenants the better for his chances of his wining acceptance among the Kalenjin people.
Ends
leooderaomolo@yahoo.com
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Date: Wed, 13 May 2009 07:32:18 -0700 [09:32:18 AM CDT]
From: Leo Odera Omolo
Subject: THE INTRIGUING POLITICS OF THE RIFT VALLEY AS RUTO, BIWOTT, GIDEON MOI AND GENERAL KOECH SCRAMBLES